Tuesday, August 23, 2005

Details, Details...

The following has most of the raw numbers I used for my projections. If you'd like any more information on how I compiled these projections, just send me an e-mail.

BC
new sales:
Kennedy 4000
Rae 3000
Dion 1500
Volpe 1000
Iggy 750
Dryden 200
Brison 200
Fry 50
MHF 40
Bennett 30

existing:
Kennedy: 2.5
Ignatieff: 2.5
Rae: 2.5
Dion: 2.5

The existing support is out of ten points for each province and it's meant to complement the formula so it doesn't have to be a perfect percentage representation of support. In BC, it seems that existing members are split between the big 4, so I simply gave them each 2.5 points.


Alberta
new sales:
Kennedy 1900
Ignatieff 1200
Volpe 1200
Dion 800
Rae 800
Brison 500
MHF 100
Dryden 100
Bennett 75
Fry 10

existing:
Kennedy 2.5
Ignatieff 2.5
Dion 2
Rae 1
MHF 1
Brison 1

There are some unaccounted for forms floating around in the new sales department so it's possible I'm underestimating one of the campaigns for their numbers. I also added about 100 Orchard forms to Dion's total. I've done some phone outs of the existing member list and it's pretty clear that Ignatieff, Kennedy, and Dion have a lot more support than any of the other candidates.


Saskatchewan
new sales:
Rae 600
Kennedy 250
Dion 225
Volpe 125
Brison 100
Ignatieff 50
MHF 20
Bennett 10
Dryden 10

existing:
Ignatieff 4
Rae 2.5
Kennedy 2
MHF 1.5

The existing numbers are meant to compensate which is why Ignatieff is high here. His team didn't do much selling of new forms but he does have a good team on the ground and support among existing members. Similarly, Martha Hall doesn't have 15% of the membership list, but she certainly has a lot more than the formula would give her credit for here which is why she gets those points.


Manitoba
new sales:
Rae 1500
Dryden 1500
Ignatieff 1000
Kennedy 450
Dion 100
Volpe 100
Brison 50
MHF 20
Bennett 10
Fry 5

existing:
Ignatieff 4
Dryden 3
Rae 2
Kennedy 1

Once you get past the top three candidates in new sales, the numbers are only approximations and are probably off by quite a bit. This is, without a doubt, Dryden's best province.


Ontario
new sales:
Ignatieff 10000
Kennedy 10000
Volpe 8000
Rae 4500
Dion 4000
Dryden 3500
Brison 2000
MHF 750
Bennett 500
Fry 50

existing:
Kennedy 3
Ignatieff 3
Dion 2
Volpe 1
MHF 1

For new sales, there are definitely a few tiers and, once again, I may be off on the lower tier estimates. For existing support, I'm going off word of mouth and the straw poll results from the Spring Fling.


Quebec
new sales:
Volpe 4400
Ignatieff 4000
Dion 2500
Rae 1200
Kennedy 500
Dryden 500
Brison 500
MHF 100
Bennett 50
Fry 20

existing:
Ignatieff 4
Dion 3.5
Rae 1
Kennedy 0.5
Volpe 0.5
Brison 0.5

The Rae rumours have been all over the place in Quebec but most seem to agree he was third and that the support they'd hoped for in la belle province never really materialized.


New Brunswick
new sales:
Ignatieff 35
Kennedy 20
Rae 20
Brison 10
Dion 4
Volpe 4
Dryden 3
MHF 2
Bennett 2

existing:
Ignatieff 4
Kennedy 2
Rae 2
Dion 1
Brison 1

For the Maritimes, complicated renewal procedures make it very hard to look at new sale totals. Because of this, I simply approximated each province out of 100 for new sales and worked on the assumption that 20% of the memberships sold were new sales (except in Newfoundland where I used 10%).


Nova Scotia
new sales:
Brison 40
Ignatieff 22
Kennedy 15
Dion 5
Rae 5
Volpe 5
Dryden 3
MHF 2
Bennett 2
Fry 1

existing:
Brison 5
Ignatieff 3
Kennedy 2

This is Scott's home turf, although it is possible that Ignatieff could win the province. Like I said, I'm not overly confident in my Atlantic Canada numbers.


PEI
new sales:
Ignatieff 35
Kennedy 25
Rae 17
Dion 5
Volpe 5
Dryden 5
Brison 5
MHF 1
Bennett 1
Fry 1

existing:
Ignatieff 3
Brison 2
Kennedy 2
Rae 2
Dion 1


Newfoundland
new sales:
Kennedy 23
Rae 18
Volpe 18
Ignatieff 18
Dryden 10
Brison 5
Dion 5
MHF 1
Bennett 1
Fry 1

existing:
Kennedy 3
Rae 2
Ignatieff 2
Volpe 1
Dryden 1
Dion 0.5
Brison 0.5


Websites Rankings

Iggy 8.75
Dion 7.5
Brison 7.5
Rae 7.5
Dryden 7
Kennedy 7
MHF 5.5
Fry 5.5
Volpe 5.5
Bennett 5


Endorsements
Iggy 86
Dion 69
Brison 36
Rae 68
Dryden 45
Kennedy 88
MHF 5
Fry 2
Volpe 8
Bennett 12


MPs
Iggy 31
Dion 7
Brison 3
Rae 5
Dryden 3
Kennedy 14
MHF 0
Fry 1
Volpe 6
Bennett 1


Blog Endorsements
Iggy 29
Dion 31
Brison 8
Rae 6
Dryden 5
Kennedy 28
MHF 2
Fry 0
Volpe 0
Bennett 1


Media Mentions
Iggy 329
Dion 116
Brison 168
Rae 301
Dryden 112
Kennedy 143
MHF 62
Fry 71
Volpe 192
Bennett 99


Money Raised
Iggy 293896
Dion 32250
Brison 100674
Rae 384795
Dryden 43617
Kennedy 103778
MHF 34645
Fry 15150
Volpe 210170
Bennett 65100


Numbers of Donors
Iggy 525
Dion 65
Brison 112
Rae 208
Dryden 67
Kennedy 142
MHF 56
Fry 15
Volpe 91
Bennett 37

4 Comments:

  • interesing that your sources believe Joe Volpe only sold 14825 from BC to Quebec, yet his campaign claims to have sold 35000 on his website. One of you is out to lunch, because those numbers are so far off. even if you split the difference and settle at 25000, both of you are way off. how confident are you on your numbers?

    By Blogger ktr, at 6:07 PM  

  • I'm agreeing with KTR... It might have taken you a while Bart to come up with all this stuff and I've really enjoyed reading your Detailed posting, but the numbers are really wrong.

    According to your detailed report, Quebec saw 13770 memberships sold... Realistic numbers was 9000 of which Volpe claims just under 50% of them. And with what KTR is saying, Volpe's campaign has got 35914 memberships. Your report doesn't detail that...

    By Blogger West_Wing_Liberal, at 8:24 PM  

  • Thanks for the full details.

    By Anonymous mauri shoes, at 7:01 AM  

  • By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2:46 PM  

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