Thursday, April 05, 2012

Alberta Votes Day 11: A Wild Wave Sweeps Across Alberta

Dear Wildrose Party candidates,

It's time to book a return ticket from Vegas:

While the Wildrose lead ranges from 7 to 17 points on these polls, the trend is clear on all three. Here's a graph of Alberta polling in 2012, giving pre-writ polls a 2-week half-life, and shrinking that to 2 days within the writ period:

At this point, seat projections are going to be about as accurate as Danielle Smith's platform costing. Using the 2008 election as the baseline doesn't make a lot of sense when the Wildrose Party was a completely different entity, unable to crack double digits in most ridings. Toss in the 4-way splits in Edmonton, and it's hard to get a sense of what the popular vote translates to.

That said, the end result of a double digit Wildrose lead is self-evident. Every poll shows them well ahead in rural Alberta and, thanks to our possibly-soon-to-be-former PC overlords, the electoral map favours rural ridings.

That's not to say the outcome is inevitable. Smith's lead will draw attention to her positions, platform, and candidates. But the best case scenario for the PCs at this point is eeking out a win, a far cry from less than two months ago when Redford's closest advisers let it be known the "current seat total of 67 is merely a base from which to build an even bigger majority".



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