Monday, November 28, 2011

The reports of our death have been greatly exaggerated

There's a lot of excitement in Liberal land over the latest Nanos poll:

CPC 35.6%
Lib 28.1%
NDP 27.3%
Green 3.9%
BQ 3.9%

As much as I'd love to jump up and down and chant "suck it Peter Newman", the reality is that this poll is essentially meaningless.

We've just been through an exhausting few years politically and voters are thinking about hockey and Christmas and the latest Justin Bieber gossip - federal politics is the last thing on their minds.

On top of that, the Liberals are leaderless, the NDP are leaderless, and we're almost four years away from the next election. The popularity of a Nicole Turmel led NDP is simply not indicative of how popular a Brian Topp or Thomas Mulcair-led NDP is going to be.

So yes, this is great for rallying the troops, and it shows there's at least some life in the Liberal brand - but it's by no means a sign that the Liberals are on the road back to power.



  • Based on these numbers, depending on exactly how the seats were distributed, the result would likely be a Liberal-led coalition government. Think about that for a moment. For all the talk of #LPC doom and gloom, if an election were held today, the Liberal Party of Canada would have better then 50/50 odds of leading the Government. Thats big.
    Is it possible that the past few elections were anomolous, and things aren't really as bad as they seemed? I still talk to people who haven't voted Liberal for years, but still describe themselves as Liberals. Maybe it really is just the right leader and a competent War Room to fight the next battle?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:49 a.m.  

  • Also we are down in just about every leadership index score across each region.

    By Anonymous Dan O, at 10:51 a.m.  

  • A new leader, and possibly an attention-grabbing new policy that appeals to a younger demographic (something to do with Marijuana, perhaps?) would turn the game right around, and even appeal to the libertarian crowd that has been leaning Conservative for the past few years. Indeed, reports of our death are greatly exaggerated

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:18 a.m.  

  • The Liberals would not likely win more seats then the NDP with these numbers so if there were a coalition we'd have Prime Minister Turmel.

    By Blogger Jordan, at 11:25 a.m.  

  • "Maybe it really is just the right leader and a competent War Room to fight the next battle?"

    Keep telling yourself that.

    By Anonymous MPAVictoria, at 11:48 a.m.  

  • The Liberals have opened nominations in Toronto Danforth, besides Lang does anyone know if others have come forward yet?

    By Blogger Jordan, at 12:08 p.m.  

  • @10:49. I don't think you read that poll quite right.

    And you seem to have also forgotten that those few who do vote Liberal tend to do so in small, concentrated groups. Just because the Liberals are running second in the polls doesn't mean that will translate into an equal number of seats.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 8:21 p.m.  

  • McGuinty won 53 seats in Ontario with just over 37% and the federal Liberals are at 38% there. So with this poll the NDP would likely win around the same number of seats in Quebec as the Liberals would win in Ontario. The NDP & Liberal seats number could be close with these results.

    Toronto Danforth will be much more interesting to watch if the Liberal numbers remain at tis level.

    By Blogger Jordan, at 9:29 p.m.  

  • LOL. I see the "we just need the right leader" jokers have come out of the woodwork. Leadership is not the only reason for the Liberals being as relevant as the Charest-led PCs.

    By Anonymous Dead Cat Bounce, at 11:37 p.m.  

  • At this stage in the game, the real numbers to look at are:
    1. Fundraising
    2. Membership
    3. Relevance in the press

    I'm also going to go out on a whim and suggest that whoever wins the NDP nomination will be an improvement over Turmel. I am also going to double down and suggest that the winner of the Liberal nomination will probably be less than or equal to Bob Rae in quality.

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