Thursday, February 24, 2011

Bev Oda: (Not) Impacting Tory Fortunes

Well, there you have it. The Tories have been "odacized", with their lead halved to 5 points.

However, just like a doctored CIDA document can end up saying the opposite of its original intent, it appears odacized can have several meanings too.

Because, after all, no one know Oda from Yoda, and Harper has opened up a 15 point lead.



  • Abacus is part owned by Tim Powers, Tory spinner. It is a miracle that they are not giving the Liberals zero.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:42 p.m.  

  • yeah - don't put any stock in Abacus polls. This one was conducted in just one day, and was an online one, of 1 out of their 100,000 panel... which is not only about a third of the size of the Ekos poll sample, but can't claim to be rep. of the whole Cndn public, and yet they have the cheek to report a normal margin of error, which Allan Gregg explained last week should not be done.

    By Blogger WhigWag, at 11:17 p.m.  

  • as for the H-D poll, it's actually good news:

    first, despite the new convenient fiction that only 15% pay attention to politics, fully HALF of the populace actually are aware of this supposedly trivial matter.

    and of those, 64% think Oda should resign from Cabinet over it -- no ifs &s or buts.

    In fact, even nearly half of the Conservatives who knew about it think she should go.

    So as more hear about it after the Speaker ruling, it'll only get worse for them.

    By Blogger WhigWag, at 11:22 p.m.  

  • With CON senators tied to headlines of 'breaking laws' i'm expecting Harper to distract the public and media this weekend by "regretably accepting Ms. Oda's odious resignation"... a let a million flowers bloom. It still won't cancel out that stench escaping from our ethically challenged PM.

    By Blogger rockfish, at 3:44 a.m.  

  • As most leaders are on the record that Polls don't matter.

    Campaigns matter. What issues do the Liberals have credibility?

    I can't find any according to the pollsters. The big issues like the economy and jobs belong to the CPC.

    On leadership Harper and Layton lead Ignatieff. Is Ignatieff a drag on the party?

    The bigger issues is the Conservatives have been the only party buy media in providing a message in prime time television.

    The fundraising gap has not been closed since the Liberals made the changes in 2004.

    Are the Liberals prepared to fight in the 905-416 with vulnerable seat?

    By Blogger CanadianSense, at 5:28 a.m.  

  • ah, piss off Senseless - integrity matters, which the CPC lacks, as do you, for making it your miserable life's mission to go around to LibLogs 18 hours a day talking smack, about how they're so great for being able to fundraise better (with a demonstrably unethical company, Responsive Marketing Group, using unethical tactics, including misrepresenting who they're calling from and why, & with the party itself routinely issuing misleading & scaremongering appeals) & run misleading attack ads because of that.... most of this being driven by the very bagman who's now facing charges.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 7:36 a.m.  

  • Anonymous 7:36 . . .

    Ever since the Liberals have chosen to go left instead of central, I have noticed Liberal bloggers such as yourself increasingly more foul mouthed. I guess it's the NDP in you. Anyway, lets talk of integrity. Bob Rae's jhadist comments shows a lot of integrity doesn't it?

    And you use the word "bagman". Would that be "brown paper bagman"? You know . . . the ones Liberals used to steal our money. By the way, what ever happened to that 40 million dollars you still owe us?

    By Blogger Prairie Kid, at 7:58 a.m.  

  • As PK noted,

    The Liberals have spent the last five years alleging our country including our democracy has been under attack and destroyed by this minority government.

    In the five years since winning two mandates, 5/7 by elections the fable of Peter crying wolf has not sunk in.

    The Liberals repeated the classic mistake with Rob Ford and Julian Fantino.

    They threw everything at them both and tried to poison the well in the hearts and minds of voters.

    It backfired. We tuned out the MSM and the usual suspects.

    They are now diminished as a result.

    The question the opposition are refusing to offer up is a REASON to vote for them. This is not about how mean or scary the Conservatives are, we are ^NOT buying that frame.

    Opposition parties need to offer a credible platform and attract donors and grassroots back to their political parties.

    The rest is noise and is being tuned out. The economy, jobs and cost of living should be the issues your party should be talking about and why you would do a better job.

    By Blogger CanadianSense, at 8:12 a.m.  

  • CanadianSense makes a lot of sense. (pardon the pun) The Liberals keep changing their direction depending on which section of Canadians they are trying to cater to. Instead of clear goals they keep changing their focus. Canadians are confused about the Liberals. That's why Iggy's numbers are lower than Dions ever were.

    Eg. We're for corporate tax cuts . . . no we're against them.

    By Blogger Prairie Kid, at 8:28 a.m.  

  • yes, PuK - the very same type of bagman: "a person designated to collect money in a protection racket.... Originally ...applied only to Mafia members collecting for mob bosses, but ...later spread to use in corrupt police precincts for patrolmen who picked up and delivered bribes from the local mob(s) to the precinct captain."

    and the CPC's bagman, Finley, is not only in charge of fundraising -- and charged in the In & Out scheme -- but was the one who tried to bribe the independent Chuck Cadman with a big of cash (in the form of insurance benefits) if he voted with them to defeat the Martin gov't.

    To keep going back to -- you guys were corrupt so it doesn't matter what we do, n'yah n'yah -- is the depths of hypocrisy and will result in the party's defeat.

    And Senseless: You're endorsing white collar crime and you complain about my language? Screw off.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:01 a.m.  

  • Any one who understands random sampling would likely not pay much attention to todays's Abacus poll.

    It was based on a sample of about 1000 taken from a pre-registered, and thus self selecting, panel of 100,000. A "random" selection, as they claimed, from a self selected pool does not make this a random/unbiased poll that is likely to be representative of the general population. This is becasue most of the latter would not have pre-registered with that polling company.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:05 a.m.  

  • |t's so obvious why the LPC has tanked,
    they were targeting Harper instead of the real master minds,
    "the 25-year-old jihadis in the prime minister’s office" .

    By Blogger wilson, at 11:15 a.m.  

  • WW - To a certain extent, I agree that it's impressive half of Canadians know Bev Oda is a federal politician (it was an open ended question).

    But just because they know her, it doesn't give us a good sense how much they know about the scandal or how strongly they feel about it. On even the most trivial scandals, you'll always have people say the person "should resign", evem if they don't know the details.

    It's hard to say if this is impacting impressions of Harper, but my gut feeling is it likely isn't.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 12:01 p.m.  

  • calgarygrit: actually, you're running together the 2 different polls that were released yesterday, there.

    The crap Abacus poll - which co-owner Tim Powers tellingly signaled was unlikely to find an effect over a week BEFORE it ran, BTW -- was open-ended on Oda.

    But the H-D poll that you linked asked:

    1) "Have you read, seen or heard anything about the Minister of International Cooperation Bev Oda altering a document sent to her office by the Canadian International Development Agency?" &

    2) "Based on what you have read, seen, or heard, do you believe Ms. Oda should resign from Cabinet?"

    By Blogger WhigWag, at 1:22 p.m.  

  • For those bashing the Abacus online sampling method: it appears to be the same process that Angus-Reid uses for their online polls, and they were the closest predictor of the last federal election.

    By Anonymous The Invisible Hand, at 10:08 p.m.  

  • So it's not exactly surprising that nothing is happening on the national level with this. But what at the riding level? Is there any indication that the people of the riding of Durham are leaning one way or another on the question such as to affect future electoral outcomes?

    By Blogger Maestro, at 12:25 p.m.  

  • Goodness, there is really much useful material here!

    By Anonymous, at 3:41 a.m.  

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