Friday, August 13, 2010

August Poll Soup: Dog Days of August Edition

I try not to get too worked up over summertime polls. Canadians aren't thinking about politics, and even a barrage of Census news stories isn't going to change their vote intent much. At least not right away.

After all, people are at their cottages and drinking lemonade. They have better things to do than talk to pollsters.
So there was really no need to panic when Ekos' Canada Day weekend poll showed the Liberals at 23.9%. And the Tories probably don't need to lose much sleep over an August long weekend poll which had them below 30%.

Still, with a barrage of polls released over the past week, there's no harm in posting a poll soup update.

Ekos (July 21 - Aug 3, n = 3,444 auto dialled)
CPC 31.6%
Lib 26.8%
NDP 17.3%
BQ 10.4%
Green 11.0%
Other 2.9%

Angus Reid (Aug 10-11, n = 1,009 online)
CPC 33%
Lib 29%
NDP 19%
BQ 10%
Green 9%

Decima (July 29 - Aug 9, n = 2,009 phone)
CPC 34%
Lib 28%
NDP 15%
BQ 9%
Green 12%

Ipsos (Aug 4-9, n = 1,000)
CPC 34%
Lib 31%
NDP 15%
BQ 9%
Green 9%

AVERAGE (change since June in brackets)
CPC: 33.0% (-1.6%)
Lib: 28.5% (+0.6%)
NDP: 16.5% (-1.1%)
BQ: 9.8% (+0.3%)
Green: 10.4% (+1.7%)

NOTE: The overall numbers are weighted based on sample size and pollster accuracy, using the weights I devised for my seat projections. I'll update the seat projections in September since, as I said, there's no point getting too worked up over August horse race numbers.



  • It's not entirely on-topic but your post reminded me about a long standing question I've had.

    Has there been any changes to better poll individuals who only have a cell phone?

    By Blogger Eric G, at 6:51 p.m.  

  • Prediction in edmonton strathcona? I think Linda is a breath of fresh air. Hope she can hang on.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 6:55 p.m.  

  • @ Eric: Polling companies buy sample with cell phone numbers all the time. The only problem with this is that there is typically lower compliance on the part of people who exclusively carry cell phones, which means higher costs to carry out the survey.

    By Anonymous pollmonkey, at 2:15 p.m.  

  • Really, the only serious complaint I've got about civilian life under minority Parliaments is the continuous polling and election speculation.

    By Anonymous jacques Beau Verte, at 5:12 p.m.  

  • One thing that always drives me nuts about national poll results is that while they often break out provincial results (with a higher margin of error, of course, due to the smaller sample size), they never report a TROC (the Rest of Canada) for those parts of the country where the BQ never runs candidates. It would be very informative to see the results for the three truly national parties in those parts of the country where the Bloc is not a factor.

    By Anonymous jerrymacgp, at 8:39 a.m.  

  • Eric - pollmonkey provides the answer above. Cell phone only households isn't as big a problem in Canada as in the US, but there are ways around it.

    My guess is, however, that for media tracking polls like this, they aren't buying any cell phone sample (due to the cost). That's just my guess though.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 12:33 p.m.  

  • Is the higher cost of cell phone polling because cell users are less likely to participate (so they have to call more people), or because list companies charge more to rent them, or both? Or is it something else?

    By Anonymous The Invisible Hand, at 12:12 a.m.  

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