Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Well that was quick...

11:00 am today: Conservatives slip, Liberals gain: poll

1:12 pm today: Tories rebound after mid-summer slump, hold six-point lead: poll

posted by calgarygrit at 2:40 p.m.

10 Comments:

  • That's the danger of neglecting to mention that it's a rebound or a slip in a specific polling companies trends. The media are sometimes a bit lazy in that regard.. particularly if it's by a pollster their paper is sponsoring. They tend to ignore other polls and proclaim there's as the right one.

    All these different polls show is voter volatility is high right now.

    By Blogger Oxford County Liberals, at 3:15 p.m.  

  • Interesting how the article itself refers to the other polls as evidence of a "rebound" when those other polls were actually conducted at the same time as or after the HD poll.

    EKOS polled Canadians from July 28 to August 3 and published the results on August 5.

    Ipsos polled Canadians from Aug 4 - 9 and published the results on August 9.

    Harris-Decima polled Canadians from July 29 to August 9 and only published the results on August 10.

    Any poll conducted over a long weekend in the middle of summer (EKOS/HD) is suspicious with regards to reliability in any event.

    By Blogger Ted Betts, at 3:31 p.m.  

  • And it's too bad the WFP & CP rushed their release before even reading the pollster's own release, which puts it at just a _5_ pt. lead, thank you very much:

    "The Conservative lead has slipped from 8 points to 5 nationally and from a 7 point lead in Ontario to
    where they are now tied with the Liberals.

    ...• Nationally, over the last two weeks, the [Con's] hold a five point lead over the Liberals. The Con's stand at 31%, the Liberals 26%,
    the NDP 18%, the Greens 12% and the BQ 10%. "

    http://www.harrisdecima.ca/sites/default/files/releases/2010/07/27/hd-2010-07-27-en887.pdf

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3:34 p.m.  

  • Anybody care to discuss the real motives behind what seems to be a tightening beginning in August? I think the economy is going down again and personal frustration is showing as negative reaction to the government.

    By Blogger Jason Cherniak, at 4:01 p.m.  

  • Or this is an example of the problems inherent in voluntary surveys...

    By Anonymous Wayne, at 4:20 p.m.  

  • I'd say all of this serves as an example of why it's best not to sweat the polls too much in the middle of summer (or jump to wild conclusions based on 3 point swings), when no one is really talking about politics.

    Maybe the Liberals gained some ground over the past month - Iggy's bus tour seems to have gone well, and Harper's had a tough summer (Census, fighter jets, G20). But, really, I have a hard time believing things have really shifted dramatically.

    Unless something big happens, I'll bet the September polls are mostly in line with the June ones.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 4:37 p.m.  

  • Anonymous, 3:34 PM here again: oops, sorry, my bad: it is a 6 pt. spread; the one I was quoating was the most recent one then on the H-D site, but they've since posted the current one:

    http://www.harrisdecima.ca/news/releases/201008/896-conservative-support-shows-resilience

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:54 p.m.  

  • EKOS has been using some unusual polling methods. The poll that showed the Liberals and NDP almost tied used half of the usual sampling. For the latest, they used only half their data done over the time period, according to one blogger who wrote about it.
    Are they trying to control the outcome? Or trying to get publicity for unusual results?

    By Blogger nuna d. above, at 12:11 p.m.  

  • Seeing as their results and methodology have also resulted in showing the Conservatives way up, and the commentary from Graves has often been very favourable to the Conservatives, I suspect it has more to do with cost savings.

    I thought their poll and the Harris Decima poll equally suspect, and the Ipsos poll about where I thought things were.

    Regardless, these are summer polls so all the usual caveats about polling generally need an extra layer of suspicion.

    By Blogger Ted Betts, at 12:18 p.m.  

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