Monday, September 14, 2009

Nomination Watch

Allow me to draw your attention to a pair of recent items on Pundits' Guide:

1. The pace of candidate nominations has picked up, but the parties still have a long way to go, if you assume an early October writ drop. The Tories have nominated 175 candidates, the Liberals 77, the Greens 33, the Bloc 21, and the NDP 16. Thia may, in part, explain why the NDP are cool to the idea of a fall election.

2. There's some interesting analysis on political donations here. The short of it is this: even though the Liberals have made monumental leaps and bounds forward with fundraising - to the point where they're only 1.6 million behind the Tories so far this year - they've maxed out a lot more donors than the Conservatives have.

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  • Aren't those nomination numbers a teensy bit misleading. Presumably most of the Liberal and Conservative nominations are just incumbents that have been re-nominated.

    By Blogger french wedding cat, at 9:11 p.m.  

  • I don't think that Liberal number includes the incumbents, whom if they wish, will be renominated.

    By Anonymous Dan, at 9:19 p.m.  

  • Perfect timing to parachute those female candadates into ridings - that they know can not win - such as Western Canada.

    Since the money is starting to come in, does that mean that the Liberals will start paying back what they stole from Canadians? Just wondering.

    It will be an interesting election for sure. Can't wait until Friday - it will be the first time in years that the Liberals finally vote against the Cons - even though the Liberals voted in the budget that they are not voting for part of it this time.

    To be honest though, the NDP MIGHT vote with the Cons - even though they always said they will vote against the Cons - even without reading the bills presented .... Interesting indeed.

    By Anonymous Sam, at 9:41 p.m.  

  • NDP incumbent Brian Masse could be trouble in Windsor West if this guy wins the Liberal nomination:

    By Blogger Political Outsider, at 10:38 p.m.  

  • I was interested to see how the fundraising numbers were for the Liberals.
    I assumed that most of it were maxed out donations, but am curious to know the amount of new donors they were able to get.

    Thanks for the link Dan

    By Blogger Dan-O, at 10:59 p.m.  

  • I think a lot of those numbers (for all parties) include incumbents.

    They are coming in fast and furious though...but if we do go to the polls Friday, there are going to need to be a lot of rushed meetings and/or appointments.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 11:26 p.m.  

  • Hi and thanks for the link,

    Most of the Liberal names are not incumbents (by the way, if you want to know which names the table includes, just click on the red "Lib" row header, and it takes you straight to the full list of them).

    I'd have to double-check (and my pillow beckons, so I'm not going to do it now), but I think about 8 of the Liberal names are Quebec incumbents who have had their nomination meetings already. The rest are new or returning candidates, mainly in Ontario and Quebec, including a fairly high number of former MPs running in their former seats in Ontario.

    Most of the Conservative names are incumbents, but you can tell which ridings they're targetting by which ones they nominated early in.

    The Dippers have some kind of candidate strategy, I think, but their current names are a mix of incumbents and fairly high priority ridings they wanted to get out there early.

    I'm low on the Green number, because I won't enter a name into the database this time until I have a nomination date, and nomination "type" (i.e., acclaimed, protected incumbent, contested, appointed, other). I have to chase people down to confirm it, if there's no clipping or other reference, and it's time-consuming, but I'm hoping the data is worth it afterwards.

    So, I'm quite confident in the names behind those numbers. I was told several times that the Liberal incumbents still have to go through nomination meetings, even if they are allowed to do so unopposed. And indeed, quite a few in Quebec already have. However, perhaps if your readers have other information ... like, for example, whether the rules are different in different provinces in your party ... I just want to be as accurate as possible, so get in touch if you know different than me.

    cheers, and thanks again for the link!

    By Blogger The Pundits' Guide, at 12:29 a.m.  

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