Thursday, May 28, 2009

Sondage Says...

It's been a busy week for political polls...I'll have the May poll dance up by week's end, but with two Quebec-only polls in field at the same time, this is a good chance to take a close look at a province which is all too often overlooked by both pundits and politicians - Quebec.

Leger, CROP, and Ipsos were all in field last week - if we take a weighted average based on their Quebec samples, we get the following:

Liberals 35%
Bloc 35%
CPC 14%
NDP 13%

Pas pire, no matter how you slice it, considering the Liberals have generally been about 15 points back of the Bloc in all three post-Chretien elections (although they did hit 34% in 2004).

I haven't been able to see the regional tables at all, but the CROP poll does detail the collapse of Harper's Quebec City Fortress:

Puis, les troupes de Stephen Harper ont glissé au troisième rang des intentions de vote dans leur bastion de la région de Québec, tout juste derrière le Bloc québécois et à 10 points du Parti libéral. À ce chapitre, le PLC termine au premier rang, avec 33%. C'est du jamais vu depuis janvier 2004, soit quelques semaines avant la publication du rapport dévastateur de la vérificatrice générale sur le scandale des commandites.

The Liberals haven't won a seat in Quebec City since 2000, and finished third in every riding there last election - usually well over 10,000 votes behind. With little organization in the region, they'll clearly have to put some resources into it - all the more evidence why it makes sense to have a 308 riding strategy, where you at least have a base level of organization in every riding that can be mobilized when things like this happen.

So what does this all mean electorally? Well, it's too early to tell, but a real quick and dirty seat projection based on the 2008 results shows the Liberals poised to win between 20-30 seats in Quebec. And that's just the way the Quebec map usually plays out - in the 1997 election for instance, the Bloc edged the Liberals 38% to 37%, but beat them on seats 44 to 26.

So while these gains are nice, they also show the 66-seat gap won't be closed in Quebec alone. Even in the best-case Quebec scenario, the Liberals will need to flip at least 20-25 seats elsewhere, in order to get back to government. (certainly doable, given stories like this)

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  • The numbers mean tough fights in the Townships (3 or 4 pickups - Brome, Compton, Shefford, maybe Mégantic), Quebec City (3 or 4 pickups), Gaspé (2-3 pickups), the Outaouais (Gatineau, Pontiac - 2-3 pickups), and several ridings in Montreal (Jeanne-Le Ber, Laval, Outremont) the 450 (St. Lambert, Chateauguay - 2-3 pickups) around Mtl. 30 might actually be the low side of the estimate, rather than the high.

    But tough fights mean we are in the fight, unlike my experience last fall. I like tough fights.

    By Blogger EB-5 Dreamlife, at 9:58 a.m.  

  • What the Conservatives need to do now is to come up with a policy that would appease Quebec and drive the Trudeau Liberals into a frenzy. That is, if the Conservatives have any policies.

    By Blogger nuna d. above, at 1:39 p.m.  

  • Yaaaaawn . . . no election happening so enjoy the numbers while you can. No voters are as fickle or can be bought off so easily as Quebecers.

    It worked for Cruton

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2:33 p.m.  

  • Harper's collapse in Quebec is not that bad for him. It means that the Bloc has no incentive to defeat the Tories. So long as Harper can prevent defections from his Quebec MP's he can wait out the recession.

    In a fall 2009 election (or earlier), Harper is doomed. In a fall 2010 election, Harper would win a majority. In between those dates it is anybody's guess.

    I think Harper will do what it takes to keep his government alive as well. Why? Combating the recession isn't just about surviving the next election. How he deals with the recession will also be his most important legacy as PM.

    By Blogger french wedding cat, at 4:10 p.m.  

  • Surely, the guy is totally just.

    By Anonymous, at 2:31 p.m.  

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