Friday, October 03, 2008

Les Reviews Sont In - 2

You can read my debate live blog and post game analysis here. As for what the viewers thought?

Harper 31%
Layton 25%
May 17%
Dion 15%
Duceppe 2%

Most Prime Ministerial
Harper 47%
Layton 24%
Dion 16%
May 7%
Duceppe 3%

Did Opinions Improve or Worsen?
May +49
Layton +28
Dion +11
Duceppe +6
Harper -10

To add to last night's analysis, I think all the parties can be pleased to a certain extent with how the debates went. May got her chance and showed she belonged with "the big boys". Duceppe came out of the French debate unscathed which is pretty good considering he's the front runner in Quebec. Layton did exactly what he wanted to do and did it well. Dion presented an economic plan that will allow him to spend the final two weeks attacking Harper on the economy. And Harper survived.

Add it all up, and it doesn't look like the campaign dynamics have changed dramatically.


  • Well an online poll taken only during part of the debates?

    Wait for Nanos...

    By Blogger Mike, at 10:21 a.m.  

  • Add it up and it shows that, other than giving the MSM and bloggers something to write about, are useless.....


    By Blogger Platty, at 10:23 a.m.  

  • Dan this post at least deserves some sort of disclaimer no? The poll of "who won" was taken after the FIRST HOUR of the debate!

    Not to mention the faulty methodology:
    This survey of 2,512 English-speaking Canadian adults who watched the debate, was conducted via the Ipsos I-Say Online Panel, Ipsos Reid's national online panel. The sample was drawn from a pre-recruited panel of over 12,000 voters. Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls because they are based on samples drawn from opt-in online panels , not on random samples.

    But I guess that goes for most online polls.

    Unfortunately I don't think any other company polled the debates so I guess this is all the media will have to suck on.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:28 a.m.  

  • Personally, I was surprised to hear my mom rave enthusiastically about Elizabeth May's performance. I think this will be a breakthrough election for the Greens, with maybe 3 MPs. Not that I'm going to wager actual money, mind you.... :D

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:34 a.m.  

  • May did well, working herself and the Greens out of the Environment Only straitjacket. My wife and I actually liked the bit about the split incomes.

    But she is still too much the "Lucy" in the "Charlie Brown and the football" bit.People have to ask "will my income tax breaks make up for everything being more expensive when you raise taxes on carbon?".

    Harper won by not losing. Dion...well, he may get more pity votes now, but still appears to be more brave than a "big player". Jack was Jack, shoring up his base, maybe stealing some Liberal and Green voters. And Duceppe's line about "I don't want to be Prime Minster, and three of you around this table won't be Prime Minster either , even if you don't want to admit it" was the line of the night.

    Other than Jack's "Rae is your guy now" to Dion...

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:50 a.m.  

  • Yeah, debatable methodology, but I posted the one yesterday that showed Dion winning in French so fair is fair.

    It will be interesting to see if there are any shifts in public opinion this weekend. My guess is no.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 10:54 a.m.  

  • Oh, and I would have really liked it if Ipsos could have broken it down by party affiliation on those results. Who did NDP voters think won? Who did Conservatives think won? etc...

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 10:55 a.m.  

  • I also thought May did a good job. I particularly appreciated her honesty on the issue of crime. Violent crime falling in Canada and there's no need to trample on Charter rights by imposing lengthy sentences on children, like Harper's proposing. I wish Dion would have been as categorical in his answer, but he can't afford to be.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:55 a.m.  

  • I though May's constant interruptions of the Prime Minster's answers and her constant finger pointing in his face made her look very immature.

    Come back when you learn some manners, Lizzie.

    It is also obvious that she knows very little about how Canadian government actually operates.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:12 p.m.  

  • Let me get this straight:

    Who do Canadians think won the debate? Harper.

    Who do Canadians think acted most prime ministerial? Harper.

    Who soured most in Canadians' opinions? Harper.


    By Blogger James Bow, at 1:20 p.m.  

  • james bow,

    That actually makes sense given the way the questions were asked. For the first two questions you had to pick who you thought was the best - more people like Harper than any one of the other leaders.

    In the improved-worsened question, what you didn't need to put your eggs in one basket. Since 4 leaders were pushing the same message (Harper is bad) their supporters all generally liked each other. Harper probably did well among people that actually voted for him, but poorly among the at least 50% of the country that will never vote for him anyway.

    This suggests among other things that improved-worsened is not usually a good question because Conservatives will say their opinion of Dion worsened, while Liberals will say their opinion of Harper worsened - but at the end of the day if you like Harper you have one choice, and if you don't you have four. So long as that dynamic remains (and a surge for the Greens reinforces that), it is hard to see Harper losing.

    By Blogger french wedding cat, at 2:22 p.m.  

  • james bow, 31% of Canadians think Harper won the debate according to that poll, that is less than the amount saying they are thinking of voting Conservative. Thats his hardcore base who have proven over and over again that the Cons could do anything without losing their support. As for the most prime ministerial, the incumbent obviously has the advantage, especially when the opposition is competing amongst each other.

    May was surprisingly good and Layton was even better.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2:24 p.m.  

  • There's already been a shift in opinion, pre-debate.

    The Nanos tracking poll has the Cons down to 35% and the Libs up to 30. Biggest shift in Quebec, where the results of just one night's post French debate polling has the Cons dropping 4 points to 20 and the Liberals up 7 points to 24!

    Ontario has the Cons down 3 and the Libs up 3.

    By Blogger Reality Bites, at 2:41 p.m.  

  • RB,

    While CROP has the Conservatives 1 point behind the Bloc in Quebec and Harris-Decima has the Conservative lead over the Liberals at 37-22.

    I like Nanos, and I even bet on him in CG's election pool, but it wouldn't be the first time he was wrong in implying the election was at 35-30.

    By Blogger french wedding cat, at 2:52 p.m.  

  • Calgrit, there's nothing "debateable" about the methodology. It was ludicrously invalid, and missed an entire hour (or, at best, half hour) of the debate.

    It is invalid. Full stop.

    By Blogger Demosthenes, at 2:58 p.m.  

  • This comment has been removed by the author.

    By Blogger Johnson, at 7:30 p.m.  

  • I don't know that I'd go so far as to say that May handled herself well, she just seemed really eager to interrupt everyone. It was thoroughly entertaining though. The decision to seat her beside Harper, the one guy who wanted her there the least, was fantastic. She certainly wouldn't let up on him. At times I thought he was actually going to smash her in the face.

    By Blogger Johnson, at 7:33 p.m.  

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