Tuesday, February 21, 2012

The Orange Trickle

According to Postmedia, NDP membership numbers have "skyrocketed":

NDP memberships skyrocket heading into leadership vote

OTTAWA — The number of NDP members has increased by about 50 per cent in the past few months, a sign that interest is rising as the party approaches its leadership vote next month.

In all, there are 128,351 members voting for the party's new leader, up from 83,824 back in October.

The climbing numbers are staggering in Quebec, which went from a little more than 1,600 members in October to more than 12,000 by February, surpassing all but Ontario and British Columbia in total membership numbers.

The four-month increase in Quebec represents growth of 750 per cent.

The support from Quebec could be a sign that leadership candidate Thomas Mulcair — who is a Quebecer — could have an edge heading into the March 24 vote
.


First off, 45,000 new members isn't "skyrocketing" when you consider both the Liberals and Conservatives exceeded this in their most recent leadership contests. Heck, the BC Liberals and Alberta PCs posted similar or higher membership totals in their leadership races last year.

As for that "staggering" increase in Quebec - a little perspective people! Yes, that's a big percentage increase, but it also means Quebec will have a third the votes of BC. 12,000 Quebec members is well below Mulcair's original target of 20,000, and it's below the 14,000 who voted in the BQ leadership race. Keep in mind, those are actual BQ votes, not memberships, from a party most describe as "dead". It's also a total nearly every media outlet in Quebec ridiculed at the time.

In fairness, the NDP seems likely to surpass the 58,000 who voted in their 2003 leadership contest - though even that isn't assured when you consider many of their current members are only members because of provincial leadership races last year. Still, we probably shouldn't sneeze at 45,000 new members, especially when that includes the NDP's first real Quebec membership base ever. There might very well be more votes in the NDP leadership race than the Liberal leadership race - especially if no one runs for Liberal leader.

But spin them as they might, for a party coming off a historic breakthrough in 2011, these membership numbers have got to be disappointing. Coupled with anemic fundraising totals, it's clear this NDP leadership race has not excited their supporters the way the party hoped it would.

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11 Comments:

  • And the Liberals have--what?--45K tops? In the whole country?

    By Blogger Dr.Dawg, at 7:39 PM  

  • Comparing the Liberal and the NDP membership is a bit like comparing apples to oranges, no? The NDP's federal membership overlaps with their provincial party -- part of one, you're part of the other. Not true with the Liberal Party. (It would help at times. The B. C. Liberals signed up 96,000 members during their leadership race.)

    As for numbers -- one article cites 60,000, but this was the number before the surge in membership after the election.

    By Blogger sharonapple88, at 9:30 PM  

  • Now the race begins to see who signed up the other candidate's new puppy for a membership without getting caught .. yet.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:29 PM  

  • Dr. Dawg - the real comparison will be when the Liberal leadership race kicks off...obviously enough, leadership races bring in new members.

    And, as I said, the NDP might still beat the Liberals. But the fact this, we're still comparing the NDP to the Liberals rather than the Conservatives.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 9:27 AM  

  • "the real comparison will be when the Liberal leadership race kicks off"

    ... because *that* one's FREE!

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:46 PM  

  • "But the fact this, we're still comparing the NDP to the Liberals rather than the Conservatives."

    And the liberals to the NDP rather than the conservatives. This is why the two parties need to merge.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 4:30 PM  

  • This is really interesting data, particularly with regard to Quebec. It seems that the NDP tops the polls there mostly because of a vacuum, and perhaps a lingering affinity for the late Jack Layton.

    One road to a Liberal recovery lies in nominating a French Canadian leader, who is not tarred by corrupt cesspool that is the Quebec Liberal party, and who has better bonafides in the rest of the country than Dion had. That goes double if the NDP is dumb enough to nominate Dewar or Nash. Triple if the NDP moves away from the decentralist line Layton adopted toward the end.

    I'm not sure who that person is - Marc Garneau has never impressed me... Leblanc (it'd be interesting to see how soft nationalists respond to a leader that is Francophone, but not Quebecois)? Coderre and Cauchon, in turn, have some baggage.

    The fundraising story is less interesting to me, particularly in a majority government setting. None of the parties will have any trouble raising enough to spend the maximum in 2015 and then some, despite the loss of the subsidy.

    By Anonymous hosertohoosier, at 5:59 PM  

  • I wish the NDP didn't have a pervert Halifax base. And that they didn't run, with Liberal's blessing, a terminally ill candidate. What if Canada was attacked and NDP won?
    They, the mentally ill in Hfx, use their transfer payments to form friendships and gang up on the working poor/attempted working poor. In other areas of the country they would be beaten, but with everyone on pogey, sucking resource revenues dry, the commies win. There is also a large female communist constitution there.
    I'm still not hired in your chosen land, Harper. I have a Conservative landlord who won't even let me in to my place. I had an employer give me a job until May 2nd that turned out to be for a week. It is tough to undo the mistakes your parents made (my carbon sequester idea would) without an income source. But with my landlord I know what your Mom is like, so is cool.

    For real, unearned and future holocaust resource revenues make people mildly-extremist in their own little neocon AB world. It is much less severe than the left in Halifax (one good employer I had was in oilfield and recognized hardwork), in that having the trickle down leads people away from the psychic need to dominate; buy consumer crap instead. And people in AB actually create wealth by working. Lots of people hate weed here. Vancouver has a vibrant construction sector nonetheless. Seriously MPs, you aren't worried about famines and floods and pandemics and meltdowns and diversifying to a materials sector based on (low-footprint)chemistry or nanotechnology; where should I go for work? Saskatoon? Waterloo? The corporate tax cuts are only working for rich tar and oil shareholders. I'll be 100% sure not to ^&*( their daughters.

    By Anonymous The Keystone Garter, at 1:49 PM  

  • ...and my AB landlord doesn't rent to Indians. This is as good a reason as any to keep NDP affirmative action hiring policies at least where white people are enjoying past income dividends.

    By Anonymous The Keystone Garter, at 3:14 PM  

  • "Maher and McGregor go on to detail the investigation, in a fantastic piece of journalism I encourage everyone to read."

    Fantastic

    adjective
    1.conceived or appearing as if conceived by an unrestrained imagination; odd and remarkable; bizarre; grotesque: fantastic rock formations; fantastic designs.

    2.fanciful or capricious, as persons or their ideas or actions: We never know what that fantastic creature will say next.

    3.imaginary or groundless in not being based on reality; foolish or irrational: fantastic fears.

    4.extravagantly fanciful; marvelous.

    5.incredibly great or extreme; exorbitant: to spend fantastic sums of money.

    By Anonymous Michael F, at 5:49 PM  

  • "I wish the NDP didn't have a pervert Halifax base. And that they didn't run, with Liberal's blessing, a terminally ill candidate. What if Canada was attacked and NDP won?
    They, the mentally ill in Hfx, use their transfer payments to form friendships and gang up on the working poor/attempted working poor. In other areas of the country they would be beaten, but with everyone on pogey, sucking resource revenues dry, the commies win. There is also a large female communist constitution there."

    The Keystone Garter said at 1:49 pm



    Thank you for writing one of the more offensive comments about my home that I have seen in a looooooooong time now. While being no fan of the NDP myself I understand why they have been doing well down here and it has nothing to do with that hateful POS you just wrote. I'd try to educate you except anyone that could have written what you did clearly has already closed their minds to dealing in reality and therefore it would be a wasted effort. Besides, on top of that I am so pissed at you for that right now that I am not sure I could maintain my composure doing so, and that takes a lot of doing as I normally am very good at such even when offended.

    CG:

    Sorry, but I couldn't ignore it when I saw it, I may not be happy with my home area voting pattern but I would never ever consider it at all perverted, and to see someone be that disrespectful to it as well as disconnected from reality well I suspect you can understand why it irked me so.

    By Blogger Scotian, at 6:28 PM  

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