Tuesday, September 13, 2011

On Top

Yes, we all had a good snicker at last week's Decima poll which showed the Liberals 11 points up in Ontario. But lo and behold, a double dose of polls last night, both showing Dalton McGuinty back on top:


Nanos (Sep 10-11, n = 507 phone)

Lib 38%
PC 35%
NDP 24%
Green 3%


Ipsos (Sep 7-11, n = 800 phone)

Lib 38%
PC 37%
NDP 24%
Green 1%


Sure, we're only in the third inning, but this is encouraging for the Liberals for reasons beyond the obvious. It will energize the ground troops and, most importantly, will shift the media narrative in McGuinty's favour. No doubt, had the polls shown Liberals losing ground, we'd have seen stories about a Liberal campaign in turmoil over its controversial immigrant tax credit proposal. Instead, it's Hudak who will likely be on the hot seat.

We shouldn't let polls dictate the narrative, but it's foolish to think they don't. For a party down 10 points earlier this year, this buys McGuinty a few days of positive coverage.

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8 Comments:

  • Calling new Canadians "foreigners", promising to kill jobs, bring criminals to your neighborhood (albeit in chains), vowing to "find savings" when most people want the government to help out more ....

    not surprising he is tanking!

    I am really shocked by the "foreigner" angle. The proposal by McGuinty can be attacked without resorting to name calling. What is more telling is the lack of involvement by federal Conservatives after this "foreign" controversy.

    By Blogger mezba, at 2:50 PM  

  • Even John Tory and Earnie Eves have spoken out against Hudak's PCs, it seems to me.

    By Blogger mezba, at 2:51 PM  

  • McGuinty may have been vulnerable on the immigrant tax credit, but Hudak's response has been way over the top.

    By Anonymous Sean, at 4:03 PM  

  • McGuinty has proven himself to be a terrible manager, and there isn't a group whose fealty he doesn't want to buy with your tax dollars. But the unions are spending more money than the political parties are allowed to spend just to get McGuinty re-elected.

    Congratulations to Ontarians for letting the unions dictate their vote.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:30 PM  

  • Stolen from rabble.ca:

    The Liberal gains in the Nanos poll came almost entirely at the expense of 'Others' (which went from 5.8% on Sept. 1 to just 0.2% on Sept. 11). Nanos does not prompt for party names, but instead asks: "For those parties you would consider voting for PROVINCIALLY, could you please rank your top two current local preferences?".

    So, what 'other' parties did 5.8% of Ontarians mention by name just 10 days ago, and where did they disappear? Doing the math, 53 people gave the name of a minor party in the Sept. 1 survey, but just 1 person did a few days ago.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:43 AM  

  • I don't know that the Liberals are doing that well, but I've also always maintained that the Liberals aren't as unpopular as everyone makes them out to be either

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:28 PM  

  • This immigrant tax credit and "foreigners" comment thing are news to me...

    Hudak should join the PQ - they're in need of protectionist ethnicism in make-believers who can pretend other provinces are 'foreign'.

    By Anonymous Jacques Beau Verte, at 1:37 PM  

  • Current polls with better regional numbers show the PCs leading in Eastern Ontario, Southwestern Ontario, and the North, and the NDP almost tied with the Liberals in Toronto.

    Put the numbers together and you might think the Liberals are winning the polls. It's far far clear how it will really break down.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 8:34 PM  

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