Killing the Subsidy
After this election, no one will be surprised when Harper decides to kill the subsidy. And, as a Liberal, I'm not nearly as worried about this move as I was two years ago.
Via Pundits Guide, here are the fundraising numbers for each party in 2010:
CPC: 17.4 million
LPC: 6.6 million
NDP: 4.4 million
Greens: 1.3 million
Bloc: 0.6 million
Looking at these figures, it's fairly obvious why the Conservatives are planning to kill the subsidy. This is obviously a partisan cheap shot, but voters have given Harper his majority, so partisan cheap shots are to be expected, and there's little that can be done to oppose them.
However, at the same time, here's what parties would have netted each year on the subsidy (based on the election vote totals):
CPC: 10.2 million
NDP: 7.9 million
LPC: 4.9 million
Bloc: 1.6 million
Green: 1.0 million
It's hard to project fundraising dollars moving forward. I'd expect the NDP should get a boost, and I'd expect demoralized Liberal and Bloc supporters to donate less money. But, let's assume for a moment that the parties continue to raise funds at their current levels. Here's how their annual revenue streams would break down:
Killing the subsidy, would drop Conservative Party revenue by 37%, Liberal revenue by 43%, Green revenue by 43%, NDP revenue by 64%, and Bloc revenue by 73%.
Like I said, the actual impact will depend on how well the different parties adapt. The Bloc can tap into the PQ fundraising apparatus, and the NDP will find they have many new friends they didn't have before.
However, if the Liberal Party can keep its membership engaged and effectively fundraise, the end of the subsidy might actually help them in their quest to wrestle back second place from the NDP.