Monday, November 09, 2009

It's By Election Night In Canada!

Can you feel the excitement!

Early twitter reports have the Tories winning back Bill Cassey's old riding in Cumberland Colchester. I won't post this until 10 because, well, Elections Canada seems to think BC by election voters (all 12 of them) will see this shocking win and change their votes accordingly. Since, you know, voters will want to deny the Tories that long sought after 145 seat benchmark.

Regardless, let's play! Ba dum du da dum dum, ba dum da da da dadum!

10:00 pm- Tories handily take a plurality in Cumberland Colchester:

CPC 45.5%
NDP 26.2%
Lib 21.1%

Most exciting, the Christian Heritage Party are only 4 votes back of the Greens for 4th, with 10 polls left to report (UPDATE - Greens hold them off by 31 votes).


In Hochelaga, Daniel Paille is well on his way to becoming the next MP. Paille, you'll remember, was the former separatist who Harper hired to embarrass the Liberals for their Earnscliffe dealings, but who ended up embarrassing the present government, before announcing that he actually wasn't a former separatist but a Bloc candidate. Yeah, so he's up 51% to 21% with 30 polls in.

Meanwhile in Montmagny-L'Islet-Yada-Yada, we're got a dog fight between the Tories and Bloc.


10:11 pm - Looking at things a bit closer, Cumberland Colchester is about what you'd expect. In 2006, Casey got 52%, the Liberals got 24%, and the NDP got 21%. So the Tories drop a bit because they lose the popular incumbent in a gong show, while the NDP ride the Dexter wave to a few extra percentage points.


10:34 pm - The Tories are now ahead by 450 votes in Montmagny. Given they lost by 15% last time, this would be a big catch for them but, as the post below points out, the Tories did very well in the last run of Quebec by elections and it didn't translate to general election success. We might be able to chalk some of this up to the Tories' having a much better ground game than the Bloc in Quebec.


10:44 pm - OK, let's look at voter turn out. Since 2004, the average by election turn out is 36.7%. Cumberland Colchester should be at 36% once the last poll comes in. Montmagny is on pace for 34%. Hochelaga, however, is only on pace for 20%. Now, the late polls are usually the bigger ones, so they may go a bit higher once all is said and done, but it's questionable if they'll match the post-2004 record low of 24.4% set in Willowdale last year. If anyone out there is really adventurous and wants to find out the lowest by election turnout from the last 10 or 20 years, by all means, start digging and let me know.


11:00 pm - The NDP are sitting pretty in BC, so the story tomorrow will likely be the Tory gains in Quebec (if they can hang on in Montmagny - now up by 620 votes). And that's fair enough, given all of Harper's problems in the province. If nothing else, Paille has put another riding in play for them next election.

But before the Blogging Tories get too excited, in Quebec by elections before the last election, the Tory vote changed -4.3%, -2.1%, +12.5%, and +22.5%, for an average gain of 7 points. And we all know what happened in Quebec come election day.

So far, the Tories are up 0.9% in Hochelaga and 11.6% in Montmagny, for an average gain of just over 6 points.

Labels:

22 Comments:

  • Mohamed Mohamed,

    The Race in BC and Que will be interesting to watch. If the CPC win one or both of those riddings it should make for an interesting story.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:14 PM  

  • Equally interesting if they don't.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:19 PM  

  • Looks like the conservaties will pick up two out of the four seats in tonight's byelections...oh well i guess at liberal supporter i will dream a dream...

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:28 PM  

  • It looks like the Tories may take Montmagny by about 1000 votes.

    But did they do it legally?

    The Bloc Quebecois MP, Christiane Gagnon, has formally launched a complaint with local police in Rivière-du-Loup for identity theft.

    Yeah, you read that right: identity theft.

    Here's the claim: Gagnon says Bloc supporters have been getting calls from an automated dialer message system. The voice is that of a woman, purporting to be a Bloc organizer and asking for support.


    Byelection twist: Identity theft? - Inside Politics

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:51 PM  

  • Isn't the Bloc candidate a former mayor? Wouldn't he come equipped with his own ground crew?

    By Blogger Gayle, at 10:56 PM  

  • So how exactly does an automatic dialer asking for support for the Bloc help the Tories win the riding?

    By Anonymous Tory@York, at 10:59 PM  

  • Did you read the article Tory?

    By Blogger Gayle, at 11:09 PM  

  • At the time I commented, no, I missed the link to the story. I now see why there are concerns, but there is no proof at this time that Conservatives are involved.

    By Anonymous Tory@York, at 11:18 PM  

  • And there probably never will be. They are the party that uses that technology and that benefits most from hurting the Bloc.

    By Blogger Gayle, at 11:23 PM  

  • Dan you seem to have all sorts of numbers at your disposal, how do tonight's results compare to the 2008 and 2006 election results for each of these ridings for each party?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:36 PM  

  • Anon - off to bed now, but I'll post those once we have the full results in tomorrow.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 11:54 PM  

  • Wow Gayle, you think only Tories have access to demon dial techonology?

    Try everyone living in this century - you can sign up online for demon dialing.

    Until there's evidence, I think you should retract your accusation. If this is the Liberal line tomorrow, then I think it'll blow up in your face.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:56 PM  

  • Anon

    First, demonstrate a little courtesy and get yourself a handle so that people like me know they are talking to one person rather than any number of people.

    Second, I am not a liberal, and have no say in what "the party line" may be.

    Third, I made no accusation. Try learning to read. Asking questions and noting facts is not the same thing as making accusations.

    Fourth, yes other people have access to this technology. I just wonder if any of them had as much to gain by trying to sabotage the Bloc here as the CPC did.

    By Blogger Gayle, at 12:25 AM  

  • I think turnout was <23% in Bonavista Trinity Bay Conception in 2002.

    By Blogger Peter Loewen, at 1:43 AM  

  • Who has the money to waste on 'demon diallers'? Who has the motivation -- ie, a possible win, an embarrassing result for their rival, etc, to use a demon dialler? In what riding prior has a 'demon dialler' been used, and who was the beneficial party of that act (Saanich Gulf Islands 2008, CONs)? Finally, is there a party which has repeatedly demonized their opponents and been investigated for acting illegally in an election in recent memory?
    Okay, now shag off you CONbots and enjoy tonight's spoils. If your playing games with our electoral system doesn't bite you back soon, it will in the society that will emulate your lack of ethics (ie Bush's America).

    By Blogger rockfish, at 3:14 AM  

  • Wow !

    Big night for Iggy & the LPC machine.

    Gotta hand it to the LPC War Room . . . inspired Leadership & strategy.

    By Blogger Fred, at 8:55 AM  

  • Wow! I'm with Fred.

    I'm shocked, SHOCKED, the liberals did not do better in seats where they had no chance in hell of ever coming in above third.

    SHOCKED!!!!

    By Blogger Gayle, at 9:50 AM  

  • I guess the Liberal stategy of acting like hysterical, shrieking buffoons isn't paying off. Maybe they can propose an idea that would improve the lives of Canadians?
    Something simple that would save tax-payers money would be a good start.

    By Blogger nuna d. above, at 12:13 PM  

  • "I'm shocked, SHOCKED, the liberals did not do better in seats where they had no chance in hell of ever coming in above third."

    Fair enough, lets not talk about seats, lets instead talk about votes. In these four ridings Martin averaged about 27% despite the sponsorship scandal, Chretien averaged 33% and Dion 17%. Ignatieff won an average of 14% support.

    I agree that the Liberals weren't expected to win any of these ridings (if they did it would be a big feather in Iggy's cap). That said, doing better that Dion is an extremely low bar for Ignatieff. That he has failed even at that should be troubling.

    By Blogger hosertohoosier, at 12:58 PM  

  • Meh. Byelection

    If he does worse in the next election I will agree with you.

    By Blogger Gayle, at 1:01 PM  

  • "If he does worse in the next election I will agree with you."

    Does anyone really think the Liberal/Power Corp backroom boys are going to let Iggy stay much longer?

    By Blogger nuna d. above, at 1:52 PM  

  • My Gayle you are bitchy. The pot calling the kettle black. Tories won in Cumberland Colchester. Have always referred to this as Tory Heaven. The fellow elected is a yes man and Stephen Harper will love him to pieces. Taught this boy so know him first hand. Not a bad kid, but easily not a strong person. SMcD

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3:53 PM  

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