Monday, April 27, 2009

April Poll Dance

After some insignificant shifts in March, the Liberals have overtaken the Tories in April:

Angus Reid (April 21-22, n = 1000 online)
CPC 33%
Lib 33%
NDP 15%
BQ 10%
Green 6%

Harris Decima (April 8-19, n = 2000)
CPC 29%
Lib 32%
NDP 16%
BQ 9%
Green 11%

Ekos (April 8-15, n = 1500 phone/online)
CPC 30%
Lib 37%
NDP 16%
BQ 9%
Green 8%

Strategic Counsel (April 2-5, n = 1000)
CPC 32%
Lib 34%
NDP 15%
BQ 10%
Green 9%

Leger (March 18-23, n = 1500)
Lib 35%
CPC 34%
NDP 14%
BQ 9%
Green 6%

MEAN (change since March in brackets)
CPC 31.8 (-2.6%)
Lib 34.0% (+1.2%)
NDP 15.2% (+1.0%)
BQ 9.4% (-0.2%)
Green 8.0% (-0.6%)


-In Manitoba, the NDP have a 10 point lead on the PCs.

-In BC, STV doesn't look to be quite as sure a bet to pass as previously thought according to this Ipsos poll.



  • The BC-STV poll was commissioned by the "No" campaign, which I know has been accused of push-polling, so I'd definitely want to see the wording of the questions before I read too much into that.

    I guess it's hard for the Greens to keep people interested with no media exposure.

    By Blogger Ian, at 9:23 a.m.  

  • Iggy will be stalking harper like harper was stalking chretien.

    By Blogger JimTan, at 11:46 a.m.  

  • Interesting, but seriously how do the Liberal support base feel about the cat let out of the bag over at Stephen Taylor's blog by someone claiming to be in the loop that Joe Clark and Brian Mulroney speaking at the convention about nothing?

    Clearly that leaves an opening for the left of the LPOC to move over to Layton,no?

    At the same time Mulroney is being dragged into the old Schreiber thingy that the LPOC wanted to make him wear so badly.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:48 a.m.  

  • Why would anyone with a brain have a problem hearing speakers of different political stripes? Why would anyone be afraid of that?

    It doesn't mean you agree with them - but this is Canada, free speech and thought and grown ups can listen to others.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:34 p.m.  

  • I'm so glad we're finally ahead! I would love to arrest the Cons for the all the mismanagement they have done. They gave us the deficit didn't they?? I am looking forward to having Prmie Minister Ignatieff take control!! He will finally give us national daycare and maybe stop all the white people from coming to this country. We're supposed to be multicultural!!

    By Blogger uber.liberal, at 1:47 p.m.  

  • There is no way Mulroney will be speaking at LPC convention. Not in a hundred gazillion years. Maybe Joe Clark, but I'd need some long odds to put money on that one.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 3:53 p.m.  

  • Ian - Looking at the two polls, I trust the Ipsos methodology more. They just asked familiarity then support. The other poll asked a series of questions first about what you want in an electoral system, etc, etc.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 3:54 p.m.  

  • I hope the federal Liberals defeat Harper, but also I hope they won't be useless like the Liberals here in New Brunswick under Shawn Graham where policy is written by the Irvings and rightwing think-tanks.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5:01 p.m.  

  • Thanks for the of great importance blog.

    By Anonymous Data recovery software, at 4:38 a.m.  

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