Tuesday, October 16, 2007

De-Throned?

They're baaaaaack!

Canada's New Government gave it's second throne speech tonight. And since we've had a month of daily election speculation around it, let's start there. With the Bloc and NDP against it, it's all in Dion's hands now. And while there are certainly some ominous promises, throne speeches are vague enough that the Liberals can likely let it pass.

That said, it's going to be a challenge to make it to Christmas without a lack of confidence vote given the following promises in today's speech:

-an elected senate
-previously defeated crime legislation
-repeal the gun registry
-limit federal spending powers

So...looks like we're in for a few months of election speculation stories.


UPDATE: Dion will let the throne speech pass but Harper says his first bill will be a crime bill that will be a confidence motion.

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23 Comments:

  • Election speculation?

    More like suicide watch for Dion.

    By Blogger conservativehabsfan, at 10:49 PM  

  • The thing is, the apparent limitation on the spending power is identical the "social union" proposed a decade ago - the feds can still institute programs in so-called exclusive provincial jurisdiction, so long as they provide equivalent funding to provinces which opt-out to run their own equivalent programs.

    I see no change from the status quo there.

    By Blogger Josh Gould, at 10:51 PM  

  • I for one am looking forward to the tax cuts that were promised in the fall economic update. Its about time our overspending "conservative" government stopped overtaxing us!

    By Blogger Andrew Smith, at 12:06 AM  

  • no government has ever gone down on a throne speech because they are so vague without specific spending commitments like in a budget.
    why does everyone take the ndp and bloc at their word they will vote against it?
    everyone remembers duceppe flipping from in to out in a heartbeat, and i dont think he really is keen on an election now. where would he gain seats?
    and the ndp are working for everyone, remember jack and his budget deally with paul. he might flip if given the opportunity.

    By Blogger ktr, at 12:12 AM  

  • The Bloc is keen on an election. I think they have two reasons:

    1. They don't want to support this government yet again, for fear of looking like the Conservatives' tool.

    2. Damage control. The Liberals are weaker than ever in Montréal, and the Conservatives still have a bit of growth potential outside Montréal. Things are ugly now, but they might be thinking that they'll only get uglier with time.

    By Blogger jeagag, at 12:54 AM  

  • What fun...the first time a Throne Speech has been answered by the Deputy Leader of the Party.

    What Harper gets up to in the next few months will pale by comparison to the no money rerun of the Green Disaster - a Liberal leadership without the money to actually conduct the vote. What fun.

    Bye, bye M. Dion; Hello Iggy through the back door.

    Poor Bob, signed on and sunk in the same week.

    By Blogger jaycurrie, at 2:56 AM  

  • "That said, it's going to be a challenge to make it to Christmas without a lack of confidence vote..."

    This Parliament is going into pantamime mode for the next six months. Wake me when the Budget arrives...

    By Blogger herringchoker, at 3:20 AM  

  • will steffi have to get rid of his dog now ?

    By Blogger Fred -, at 11:08 AM  

  • Dunno about Christmas unless Dion won't even send to committee at 2nd reading.

    Everything after 2nd reading and the budget will make the new year interesting.

    By Blogger anonymous, at 11:56 AM  

  • Let the CONs force an election on the gun registry or intrasigence over the omnibus crime bill -- the majority of that had made it to the senate where it was en route to ratification.
    This game of cat and mouse has many options, so all these CON bloggers, who seem to forget their team's pathetic last attempt at pretending to make parliament work, should take a gut check. In 2004-05, Harper was seen as Dead Man Walking. I guess they didn't learn anything from that episode, either.

    By Blogger burlivespipe, at 12:44 PM  

  • Just a few months? Try every day until a party can engineer a majority somehow.

    By Blogger Mikael, at 1:22 PM  

  • The only reason the Bloc want an election is because Duceppe has a death wish.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 5:18 PM  

  • First we'll have the Upperclass Twit of The Year Watch. If Dion tries to pass an amendment that the Cons and NDP can't support, Layton could abstain and the public would be treated to an accidental self-shooting.

    Then we have the Suicide Watch with the Omnibus Bill. If Dion let's it go to the Senate he buys some time, but Harper will push to him to the wall if the Senate doesn't pass it by summer.

    If he doesn't have more public support by budget time he'll be on one hell of a roll.

    By Blogger anonymous, at 5:35 PM  

  • I thought Canada's New Government stood for the principle that only the budget bill and main estimates would henceforth and evermore be confidence motions?

    By Blogger WJM, at 6:08 PM  

  • 940news: The Liberal amendment calls on the government to accept the blame for failing to meet Kyoto targets, suggesting that the previous Liberal government was on track to do so. Both Layton and Duceppe scoffed at that assertion.

    So Dion's clever trick is to tell a whopper, get beaten about the head by all parties and then sulk by abstaining on the main vote. This is how they talked Citoyen Dion down from his ledge? Good luck with that.

    By Blogger anonymous, at 8:13 PM  

  • We know a few things that are obvious and we can infer a few things from that are equally obvious:

    1)Were a general election to be held this fall the Liberal Party would not form government.

    2)A fall election offers up a 50/50 chance of a Harper majority.

    3)A fall election guarantees Harper a minority at the very least.


    So Stephane has decided that since he cant win an election he will abdicate his responsibility as OLO and stay home.

    Those are great principles on which to campaign and ask the people for a mandate to govern.

    The more bills that Harper passes and the more that Stephane bends over and lubes up the less respect Canadians will have for the Liberal party of Canada.

    If I were a Liberal I would look for strong sales of KY Jelly and get used to being f#$ck3d up the ass.

    Of course the rest of the country had to get used to the Liberals of Chretien doing that to them on a regular basis so turnabout is fair play.

    Dion should borrow Kyoto's collar cuz Harper has a new bitch...

    By Blogger conservativehabsfan, at 9:58 PM  

  • Oh No! Rejected again!

    Harper gets rejected in 2005. He gets a pass (not an endorsement) in 2006. After 21 months in power against dion, harper still can’t get a majority.

    Now, the cruelest cut! Dion won’t play with him till the Liberals have the advantage.

    What will harper do now? He looked so dejected. He can’t call an election because he passed a law fixing his term in office. Any bill he tables will get picked to death in the committees.

    Will he dare table a bill on Afghanistan and treat it as a vote of confidence? But, he’s just appointed a commission to look at the options.

    Is harper really as bright as he thinks he is?

    By Blogger JimTan, at 1:38 AM  

  • Well lets see Jimtan.

    Martin, with a strong majority and not needing to call an election in 2004, does so because he is trying to beat the repercussions from voters when Gomery testimony comes out.

    Whoops, blew that one. Liberal's now reduced to minority government. Liberal's beg, steal, and borrow to avoid another election(Stronach, $4.6 billion for NDP, cancelling opposition days, etc.). Ooops, Liberal's fall, and now find themselves as the official opposition.

    Pollining indicates Liberal's are unlikely to win even a minority in an election. Media speculates on a Harper majority being possicle.

    See the trend here yet Jim?

    Now let's look at past history. 1997,2000, and 2004 ewlections called by the Liberal's ONLY because they thought the timing favored them.

    "Is harper really as bright as he thinks he is?"

    Maybe not. But he sure is a lot brighter than Dion. What does Dion do about Kyoto now? Rename his dog numbnuts? They said the first Kyoto cuts are 76 days away, and that if Canada shut down all manufacturing and took all cars off the road till then they still can't make the targets.

    A vote on Afghanistan? Think Liberal's will bring Harper down on that? Apparently you don't follow the news properly. Harper has said the extension will be voted on and must pass a consensus in Parliament. Not a confidence vote, get it?

    Harper's fixed-election date legislation? When we do have the next election, Liberal's will have a lot tougher time bringing Harper down with all the recent elections, that is if he doesn't have his majority. And when it looks like he will be brought down he can just take a page out of the Martin-Goodale example of bringing in tax cuts and increasing spending on special interest groups to curry votes.

    By Blogger paulsstuff, at 9:39 AM  

  • Okay, I'm not typing anything else till I have my coffee. Sorry for the spelling errors.

    Neeeed Caffeine

    By Blogger paulsstuff, at 9:41 AM  

  • “See the trend here yet Jim?”

    Snigger! Harper’s supporters do a lot of liberal baiting on a liberal blog. But, they can’t take it when the shoe’s on the other foot.

    A writer once wrote that war is the province of uncertainty. Ditto for politics. Look at John Tory in Ontario. One moment, a contender. Now, consigned to oblivion.

    It’s not a coincidence that he’s a right-wing guy like harper. Though to be fair, John Tory is a gentleman while harper is not.

    Let’s be honest. Harper has a specific agenda to ‘reform’ Canada. The majority of Canadians resist him. Harper still can’t get a majority with dion asleep during the summer.

    The majority is waiting for the Liberals to find themselves. And, they will do that if they don’t fall apart.

    Of course, the situation was very different in spring with harper on the defensive. Where’s the trend? The reality is that harper is riding on the back of Liberal weakness.

    To harper’s credit, he has learned and evolved. The latest play was a cunning attempt to overcome the difficulties harper imposed on himself. Now, we will see whether dion is able to learn and evolve. This is the nature of warfare.

    At the beginning, harper was naïve. He believed that he could win a majority with simple politics. He believed in his immaculate mandate. Now, he has to dodge and twist like a Liberal politician.

    The sad thing is that harper is nasty while Chretien and Martin was not. For example, harper cut funding for the Canadian Wildlife Services. Why would harper harm the little critters just to spit the Greens?

    The fact is that harper needs a majority while dion only needs a minority. That’s quite a disadvantage.

    Enjoy your coffee.

    By Blogger JimTan, at 11:53 AM  

  • I'm sorry Jim, I guess you never got the memo about Paul Martin and the Liberals cutting the Canadian Wildlife funding as well. Was he to trying to hurt the critters?

    The reason for the cuts this time is because the department was over-budget and it was nowhere near the end of the fiscal year.

    By Blogger paulsstuff, at 12:07 PM  

  • “I'm sorry Jim, I guess you never got the memo about Paul Martin and the Liberals cutting the Canadian Wildlife funding as well. Was he to trying to hurt the critters?”

    I recall that Chretien and Martin cut many many programs deeply when they inherited a large budget deficit. Did they cut the CWS budget when they had a surplus?

    By Blogger JimTan, at 12:12 PM  

  • “Was he to trying to hurt the critters?”

    Harper was trying to provoke an election.

    It is quite common in warfare to unbalance your opponent by striking at his ‘gut instincts’. However, there are certain decisions that have to be made before we go to war.

    There are things we must do. There are things that we must never do.

    A professional sets high standards. A bandit is unconcerned about the ‘collateral damage’.

    By Blogger JimTan, at 12:39 PM  

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