Tuesday, April 17, 2007

Shrinkage

The latest Decima poll confirms the SES Easter poll that had the Tory lead down to 3. I haven't been able to find any detailed breakdowns as of yet, but the Bloc are at a shockingly small 29% in Quebec. Both Ipsos and the SC should have new numbers out in the next week or two, and that will help confirm if in fact the Tory lead has shrunk down to a mere 3 points.

Also of note in the Decima poll is that the Greens are at 11%. I think most people will concede that 11% is mostly parked votes. So, you know, if Elizabeth May were to implicitly endorse another party leader that might kind of help some of those fence sitting Greens with their decision. I'm just saying...

In other news, SES has an interesting "what if" poll out about a world without the temporary ad hoc rainbow coalition known as the BQ. The bottom line - Jean Lapierre probably did the Liberals a big favour by setting up the BQ, because their vote would be dripping everywhere but to the Liberal Party.

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16 Comments:

  • Interesting though that you might read the BQ vote going mostly Lib in the Decima poll. But this is reading significance into twitches in the numbers.

    By Blogger bigcitylib, at 4:36 PM  

  • May implicitly endorsed Dion? Seems to me it was a bit clearer than that.

    By Blogger Josh Gould, at 4:44 PM  

  • josh; Well, I think she'd still rather they vote Green than Liberal so I wouldn't call it a full our formal Liberal endorsement.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 4:47 PM  

  • if Elizabeth May were to implicitly endorse another party leader that might kind of help some of those fence sitting Greens with their decision


    Hmmmmmm.

    Very interesting. You may just be right there, Dan.

    By Blogger Jason Bo Green, at 4:53 PM  

  • "if Elizabeth May were to implicitly endorse another party leader that might kind of help some of those fence sitting Greens with their decision"

    If Jack Layton,Ed Broadbent, Stephen Lewis and Shirley Douglas were to explicitly attack the Liberals on their green-house gas reduction record, that might kind of help some of those fence-sitting Greens with their decision.

    By Blogger nuna d. above, at 6:14 PM  

  • For fun I put the no Bloc numbers into the UBC election stock market. Sure the outcome would be off, but it gives a picture.

    Outcome:
    NDP: 2
    Liberal: 17
    CPC: 55

    By Blogger hosertohoosier, at 6:23 PM  

  • Funny, the SES showed something quite different, in fact glaringly different.
    Headline - New SES Research Poll - BQ supporters would Tilt to Tories and NDP.
    "In a nutshell, the absence of the BQ would likely move the Conservatives into majority territory. They would lead in Quebec with the support of 41% of voters followed by the NDP and the Liberals who would be statistically tied (23% and 21% respectively). BQ committed voters would move to the Conservatives (who pick up 13 points), the NDP (who pick up 10 points), the Green Party (who pick up 8 points) and the Liberals (who pick up 3 points). Factoring the margin of accuracy for the sub sample the discernable movement is to the Tories and the NDP and to a lesser extent to the Greens."

    I guess that's not so good for the liberals so we'll just ignore that poll.

    By Blogger janfromthebruce, at 6:56 PM  

  • Jan,

    If we live in a what-if universe, then that poll might mean something and worth a few seconds of consideration.

    The 'regular' polls coming out now already have little weight to me, since they mostly gauge people's reaction to what is happening currently. I mainly look at the polls for entertainment value, until about 3 weeks just prior to election day.

    By Blogger Phong, at 9:08 PM  

  • nuna; If Jack Layton,Ed Broadbent, Stephen Lewis and Shirley Douglas were to explicitly attack the Liberals on their green-house gas reduction record, that might kind of help some of those fence-sitting Greens with their decision.

    Which is probably why the NDP will be viciously attacking the Libs record.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 11:01 PM  

  • I would like to know the timing of the poll.

    If it was a weekend poll following the Bernard Paille' appointment, there might be a causal relationship.

    That appointment is so obviously flawed. This issue is likely to keep re-surfacing as the "objective inquiry by an independent investigator with a spotless reputation" continues.

    One can expect Tory support to decline with the publication of every progress report.

    By Blogger Down & Out in L A, at 1:40 AM  

  • 3% sounds about rite.

    My analysis is that the CPC lead over the LPC has shrunk since the last elections.

    The anger with the sponsorship scandal is abetting. Martin did the right thing to appoint the Gomery Inquiry.

    And, Dion's global warming issue has been fortuitous.

    By Blogger JimTan, at 2:35 AM  

  • If this poll was conducted after six Canadian soldiers were killed in Afghanistan, that might have something to do with the drop in Tory fortunes. Either way though, it looks a lot like Harper's strategy of dumping money on Quebec and releasing a Liberal budget hasn't endeared him to voters.

    By Blogger Sean Cummings, at 5:15 AM  

  • the no Bloc numbers, despite their bad appearances for us, actually help us in many Montreal area ridings where the split of the Bloc votes would land us anywhere between 10-15 extra seats. The other 35 would go Conservative.

    The NDP may win one or two, but they would need very strong candidates, those ridings were liberals fortresses before the BQ got there

    By Blogger Antonio, at 11:28 AM  

  • Janfromthebruce,

    I'm not saying ignore that poll, but it is a "what-if" scenario.

    Besides, what if SES had a poll with say....two right parties instead of one? Shouldn't we ignore that one too?

    By Blogger Glen, at 12:05 PM  

  • the no Bloc numbers, despite their bad appearances for us, actually help us in many Montreal area ridings where the split of the Bloc votes would land us anywhere between 10-15 extra seats.

    Correct.

    The other 35 would go Conservative.

    Probably incorrect. The BQ's margin over the Tories, in those Decima figures, mean the Tories are still not at electoral paydirt levels in Quebec. They would hold their incumbent seats, and maybe pick up a handful (up to five) others, but the BQ, while reduced to a slim plurality of the vote, would still get the plurality of the seats.

    But the big-three party numbers are contingent on the Green figure being accurate. It isn't. The Greens poll high because pollsters prompt for them, and people lie.

    The NDP is in no danger of winning any seats, not even in the areas where The Quéllective was strong on the island of Montreal.

    By Blogger WJM, at 2:14 PM  


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