Friday, September 30, 2005

Staying Put

Smart on Peter to give up his dreams of returning to the potato farm to stay in Ottawa. Having the former leader of the PCs leave right before the election would have likely been a death blow to the Conservatives and to Stephen Harper.

It also would have been a poor career move. I wouldn't count the Tories out yet, but there's at least a 50/50 chance they'll lose the next election (and that's being wildly optimistic) and if they do, Harper is gone and MacKay is the frontrunner to replace him, with only one real challenger. And once he does, he'll be up against a tired leader twice his age who voters have only been re-electing due to an absence of alternatives. When Brian Tobin and Jean Charest answered to call to come home, they were nowhere near becoming Prime Minister - MacKay is.

Of course, was it ever really in doubt? After all, what kind of person would bolt from a new party so soon after they helped to create it?

10 Comments:

  • QuebecHarpermaniac says:

    Every time I come here (daily) you offer reasoned and reasonable analysis of the day's events.

    Are you sure you're a liberal?

    I mean, taking a crack at Belinda? She's the Minister of Democratic Rejigging who saved us all from the terror of the Bloc and Tories voting the same way at the same time. Aren't you supposed to clap with both hands for her?

    CG: I clap with both hands for you.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2:04 PM  

  • "CG: I clap with both hands for you."

    Thank goodness - that 'one hand clapping' thing was getting really confusing...

    Dean

    By Blogger deaner, at 3:00 PM  

  • This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    By Blogger James Raymond, at 3:01 PM  

  • If Mackay becomes leader and then PM, Belinda would shiat. How dare that potato planting rube from the maritimes, win what she couldn't buy!

    By Blogger Nastyboy, at 3:05 PM  

  • QuebecHarpermaniac asks:

    Deaner:

    Curious - is it obvious where my "I clap with both hands" comes from?

    (Sorry CG. We should be talking about Peter MacKay.)

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3:13 PM  

  • This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    By Blogger James Raymond, at 3:26 PM  

  • and I thought you were going to slag Brison there...

    McKay is gone, for two good reasons: time, and money.

    He can gamble on a. Harper losing, b. Himself winning the leadership, c. Himself winning a federal election vs.

    a. Winning the NS election.

    Time is on his side if he chooses the latter and loses the gamble.

    Same with money - he had quite the leadership campaign debt pre-merger. Dunno if he can swing the cash, yet, for a federal run whereas NS would be an inexpensive cakewalk.

    By Blogger matt, at 1:54 AM  

  • To me the most interesting is the whole follow-up story, where Peter says many of his Conservative collegues are encouraging him to stay Federal BUT that, even after a lengthy discussion with Harper on the situation, Stephen never asked him to stay. Hmmm... Many pundits are suggesting that: a) Harper really would relish McKay's departure; b) Harper sees no problem with Peter and the likes of him (read: Belinda, Progressives) abandoning the Party and leaving the power with the Reform OR c)Peter is trying to make Stephen look even worse than he is already perceived!

    If I was a collegue of Peter McKay I probably wouldn't trust him either, but it seems almost impossible to comprehend that Stephen Harper does not understand how much the Conservative Party would lose if McKay bolts.

    By Anonymous Fran Irwin, at 3:06 PM  

  • It's a mistake for McKay to stay in Ottawa. When he was running for Tallest Midget in Canadian Politics against Brison, Prentice, and Orchard, we witnessed how incredibly out of his depth he was. God help him in a head-to-head fight with the next Liberal leader. The man needs a stint in Halifax to build up some credibility.

    By Blogger Toll Booth, at 3:16 PM  

  • QuebecHarpermaniac responds:

    Fran Irwin, the problem is that you can't go out into a media swirl that hates you and beg Peter to stay.

    Harper tries to give the impression that the ship steams forward with or without him. Even if Peter's got his finger blocking a hole in the hull.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 8:56 AM  

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