1. Giles Duceppe runs for PQ leadership and wins
2. On the strength of his popularity, Duceppe defeats Jean Charest in two years and becomes Premier.
3. On the strength of his popularity and Adscam outrage, Duceppe calls a referendum and wins.
But let’s take a step back for a moment. Even if Duceppe runs for and wins the PQ leadership, he’s going to find provincial politics a much harder game than federal politics. As BQ leader, he can spout about “Quebec’s grievances” and Gomery, without so much as a worry about governing or the good of the country. Once he jumps to provincial politics, he’s going to have to take real stands and make unpopular decisions because he knows there’s a good chance he’ll be Premier one day. I think he’ll soon find that failed “fe-dee-RAW-lism” and feigned outrage will only take him so far. Ask the guy his opinion on tuition hikes and suddenly he’s going to have to take real, unpopular stands. Remember, two years ago Gilles Duceppe was seen as a spent force and a failure as politician. He’s been using the Adscam crutch but now he’s going to have to walk on his own.
When Lucien Bouchard jumped to provincial politics, he found out it’s a whole new ball game. Bouchard is one of the greatest politicians of the past century and a man who nearly destroyed Canada single handedly. Yet he got 76.7% on his first leadership review after becoming PQ leader, the same percentage Bernard Landry picked up last weekend. I also seem to recall another golden boy of federal politics with curly hair who went provincial and has had a rather rocky ride, to put it mildly. In fact, he’s the main reason the PQ is poised to regain power.
As for a referendum, it won’t happen and if it does happen, the Oui side will be defeated. Adscam pales in comparison to Meech, the later being a substance issue and the former being one party’s scandal. People are mad now but they’re not going to rip up the country over it. And Gilles Duceppe pales in comparison to Lucien Bouchard. If Bouchard couldn’t deliver, what makes anyone think Duceppe can?