Hairnets Aside
All the buzz is on Gilles Duceppe and we’re certain to see the doom and gloom scenario repeated over and over again. You know the one:
1. Giles Duceppe runs for PQ leadership and wins
2. On the strength of his popularity, Duceppe defeats Jean Charest in two years and becomes Premier.
3. On the strength of his popularity and Adscam outrage, Duceppe calls a referendum and wins.
But let’s take a step back for a moment. Even if Duceppe runs for and wins the PQ leadership, he’s going to find provincial politics a much harder game than federal politics. As BQ leader, he can spout about “Quebec’s grievances” and Gomery, without so much as a worry about governing or the good of the country. Once he jumps to provincial politics, he’s going to have to take real stands and make unpopular decisions because he knows there’s a good chance he’ll be Premier one day. I think he’ll soon find that failed “fe-dee-RAW-lism” and feigned outrage will only take him so far. Ask the guy his opinion on tuition hikes and suddenly he’s going to have to take real, unpopular stands. Remember, two years ago Gilles Duceppe was seen as a spent force and a failure as politician. He’s been using the Adscam crutch but now he’s going to have to walk on his own.
When Lucien Bouchard jumped to provincial politics, he found out it’s a whole new ball game. Bouchard is one of the greatest politicians of the past century and a man who nearly destroyed Canada single handedly. Yet he got 76.7% on his first leadership review after becoming PQ leader, the same percentage Bernard Landry picked up last weekend. I also seem to recall another golden boy of federal politics with curly hair who went provincial and has had a rather rocky ride, to put it mildly. In fact, he’s the main reason the PQ is poised to regain power.
As for a referendum, it won’t happen and if it does happen, the Oui side will be defeated. Adscam pales in comparison to Meech, the later being a substance issue and the former being one party’s scandal. People are mad now but they’re not going to rip up the country over it. And Gilles Duceppe pales in comparison to Lucien Bouchard. If Bouchard couldn’t deliver, what makes anyone think Duceppe can?
1. Giles Duceppe runs for PQ leadership and wins
2. On the strength of his popularity, Duceppe defeats Jean Charest in two years and becomes Premier.
3. On the strength of his popularity and Adscam outrage, Duceppe calls a referendum and wins.
But let’s take a step back for a moment. Even if Duceppe runs for and wins the PQ leadership, he’s going to find provincial politics a much harder game than federal politics. As BQ leader, he can spout about “Quebec’s grievances” and Gomery, without so much as a worry about governing or the good of the country. Once he jumps to provincial politics, he’s going to have to take real stands and make unpopular decisions because he knows there’s a good chance he’ll be Premier one day. I think he’ll soon find that failed “fe-dee-RAW-lism” and feigned outrage will only take him so far. Ask the guy his opinion on tuition hikes and suddenly he’s going to have to take real, unpopular stands. Remember, two years ago Gilles Duceppe was seen as a spent force and a failure as politician. He’s been using the Adscam crutch but now he’s going to have to walk on his own.
When Lucien Bouchard jumped to provincial politics, he found out it’s a whole new ball game. Bouchard is one of the greatest politicians of the past century and a man who nearly destroyed Canada single handedly. Yet he got 76.7% on his first leadership review after becoming PQ leader, the same percentage Bernard Landry picked up last weekend. I also seem to recall another golden boy of federal politics with curly hair who went provincial and has had a rather rocky ride, to put it mildly. In fact, he’s the main reason the PQ is poised to regain power.
As for a referendum, it won’t happen and if it does happen, the Oui side will be defeated. Adscam pales in comparison to Meech, the later being a substance issue and the former being one party’s scandal. People are mad now but they’re not going to rip up the country over it. And Gilles Duceppe pales in comparison to Lucien Bouchard. If Bouchard couldn’t deliver, what makes anyone think Duceppe can?
posted by calgarygrit at
11:30 a.m.
7 Comments:
Looks like once again CG you have put things in a crystal clear context.
I agree that a transistion to provincial politics will have a very short honeymoon period before it gets rough for D.
JPorter
Ottawa
By
Anonymous, at 12:05 p.m.
"Feigned outrage" is basically what sustains the sovereigntist movement, both on the federal and provincial stage.
The problem, though, is that Duceppe, if he does make the switch, wouldn't be going from head of the Bloc to Premier of Quebec. He'd happily bring his outraged underdog rhetoric with him and ride it to the polls and a referendum in 2008, before having to really answer to the public on actual issues ...
I don't think they'll ever pull it off, but I do thin Duceppe might be able to play the same childish game here, unfortunately. And that's just bad for the province. Hell, give me Pauline Marois. She'd probably make Charest look good before election time...
By
Andrew Rose, at 2:46 p.m.
Why would Canadians in Calgary care about Quebec separation?
If I were in Alberta (or in Ontario, in BC or anywhere else, for that matter) I would definitely not be unhappy about Quebec leaving the country.
Why care that much? Canada would survive the "loss" of Quebec. It might even end up being better off.
By
Anonymous, at 11:08 p.m.
The PM side of things will be interesting. Martin has a bad rap on national unity and Harper would likely be worse. But who knows? If there's a referendum in 3 or 4 years, the PM could be anyome from Bernard Lord to John Manley to Michael Ignatief.
More important will be the provincial Liberal leader at the time. Safe bet is that it won't be Charest.
By
calgarygrit, at 12:07 a.m.
I appreciate the sentiment here, and I don't mean to be rude, but here's what some Quebecers might think of your somewhat emotional responses to my question:
- Why would Canadians with little or no knowledge of Quebec's language and/or culture feel such deep attachment to the province?
I know that doesn't apply to a lot of Canadians who do know French and Quebec, but it's still what a lot of Quebecers would be tempted to think. Un amour étouffant, they might say.
By
Anonymous, at 6:13 p.m.
Wow CG
That analysis is better than most Quebec pundits. Who ever said Albertans cant understand Quebec....Then again, there arent many Albertans quite like you
Cheers from Fuddle Duddle
Antonio
By
Anthony, at 10:56 a.m.
I find it truly sad that someone can say "why should we care if Quebec leaves Canada? ... we might even be better off as a result."
I am a CANADIAN. I love my country. Yes, including Quebec, Alberta, Ontario, Saskatchewan, and every other province and territory.
The loss of Quebec would be a devastating blow that could never be compensated for by saving a few bucks on equalization payments.
Canada is enriched immeasurably by the French language, French-Canadian/Quebecois culture, arts and other social, political and economic contributions.
I am fed up with some Anglo-Canadians griping about Quebec all the time. I honestly can't understand what difference it would make if our constitution recognized Quebec as a "distinct society" either. I mean, have you ever been to Quebec? It's unlike any other part of the country. That's what distinct means. It's not about being better than other Canadians. It's all about recognizing Quebec for the profound impact that French Canadians have had on this country.
I am proud of Quebec. I am proud of Canada. And it would be a disaster if Quebecers ever chose to leave us. It would break my heart and I hope it never happens.
Matthew
Toronto
By
Anonymous, at 11:49 a.m.
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