Let's Make a Deal!
I'd love to go into a big long policy discussion debating the merits of spending money on corporate tax cuts versus affordable housing, public transit, post-secondary education and foreign aid . Honestly, I think this is a huge improvement on the budget and the areas where Layton is redirecting money are areas money should be spent (notice how Jack didn't say "throw it all into healthcare"). But, let's be perfectly honest - it ain't gonna make a difference. With Chuck Cadman hinting he'll vote against the government and both sick Tory MPs declaring themselves able to make it to Ottawa, this government is likely to go down before the budget is passed. And I have a sneaking suspicion that Prime Minister Stephen Harper is unlikely to keep 1.6 billion for affordable housing while the eight car garages of Canadian CEOs remain half empty.
So, let's assume the government falls and look at the fallout of this deal from a purely political perspective.
NDP: For years the NDP has been nothing more than that collection of Shakespeare books in your bookcase that you never read; no real purpose and mostly for show. But people are finally reading the Bard! The NDP is...gasp...relevant! I know, I'm as shocked as you to realize this. I can only imagine how giddy NDP supporters must feel to be making a difference (well, in theory) on the national stage. This deal works for Layton on a few levels:
1) It makes him seen as a real player and gets him a ton of media exposure
2) It shows people a vote for the NDP is not a wasted vote
3) It gets his message out there. He supports education, the environment, and affordable housing over corporate tax cuts. That's not a bad message.
4) It shows he's trying to make Parliament work.
5) It shows he's against an early election.
The only real drawback is that he might be seen as propping up the Liberals and it gives Harper full control of the sponsorship issue. It'll be harder for Layton to argue the Liberals don't have the "moral authority" to govern when he's supporting them.
Liberals: The good for Paulie is it may put off a spring election. But even if we go to the polls this spring, there's some good in this:
1) Having the "moral conscience" of Parliament support your government is a big plus when the next election will be fought on corruption.
2) The Liberals will be seen as moving left which might bring back some disgruntled Bloc and Dipper voters to the fold.
3) Martin will be able to talk up the unholy alliance of Stephen Harper and Jean La...I mean, Gilles Ducceppe.
But, there are some drawbacks:
1) Martin will be seen as trying to buy his way out of an election.
2) Having Jack Layton set the agenda will not help dispel the perception that Martin is a pushover.
3) The business community will not be amused.
Conservatives: For Harper, this is likely about as appealing as a candid Randy White tell-all press conference. Harper will be seen as the one bringing down the government and he'll be seen as the one working with the Bloc to do it. And with campaign finance laws in place, having Bay Street turn on Martin won't make much of a difference.
Bloc: Quoi? Quelle deal?
I'd love to go into a big long policy discussion debating the merits of spending money on corporate tax cuts versus affordable housing, public transit, post-secondary education and foreign aid . Honestly, I think this is a huge improvement on the budget and the areas where Layton is redirecting money are areas money should be spent (notice how Jack didn't say "throw it all into healthcare"). But, let's be perfectly honest - it ain't gonna make a difference. With Chuck Cadman hinting he'll vote against the government and both sick Tory MPs declaring themselves able to make it to Ottawa, this government is likely to go down before the budget is passed. And I have a sneaking suspicion that Prime Minister Stephen Harper is unlikely to keep 1.6 billion for affordable housing while the eight car garages of Canadian CEOs remain half empty.
So, let's assume the government falls and look at the fallout of this deal from a purely political perspective.
NDP: For years the NDP has been nothing more than that collection of Shakespeare books in your bookcase that you never read; no real purpose and mostly for show. But people are finally reading the Bard! The NDP is...gasp...relevant! I know, I'm as shocked as you to realize this. I can only imagine how giddy NDP supporters must feel to be making a difference (well, in theory) on the national stage. This deal works for Layton on a few levels:
1) It makes him seen as a real player and gets him a ton of media exposure
2) It shows people a vote for the NDP is not a wasted vote
3) It gets his message out there. He supports education, the environment, and affordable housing over corporate tax cuts. That's not a bad message.
4) It shows he's trying to make Parliament work.
5) It shows he's against an early election.
The only real drawback is that he might be seen as propping up the Liberals and it gives Harper full control of the sponsorship issue. It'll be harder for Layton to argue the Liberals don't have the "moral authority" to govern when he's supporting them.
Liberals: The good for Paulie is it may put off a spring election. But even if we go to the polls this spring, there's some good in this:
1) Having the "moral conscience" of Parliament support your government is a big plus when the next election will be fought on corruption.
2) The Liberals will be seen as moving left which might bring back some disgruntled Bloc and Dipper voters to the fold.
3) Martin will be able to talk up the unholy alliance of Stephen Harper and Jean La...I mean, Gilles Ducceppe.
But, there are some drawbacks:
1) Martin will be seen as trying to buy his way out of an election.
2) Having Jack Layton set the agenda will not help dispel the perception that Martin is a pushover.
3) The business community will not be amused.
Conservatives: For Harper, this is likely about as appealing as a candid Randy White tell-all press conference. Harper will be seen as the one bringing down the government and he'll be seen as the one working with the Bloc to do it. And with campaign finance laws in place, having Bay Street turn on Martin won't make much of a difference.
Bloc: Quoi? Quelle deal?
posted by calgarygrit at
12:28 a.m.
10 Comments:
As an NDP supporter, I would have to say that I am in fact pretty stoked that the NDP is actually able to do something outside of BC. It's kind of nice.
-Socialist Swine
By
Unknown, at 3:06 a.m.
As for bringing back left leaning Bloc and NDP voters -- not so much I think. Martin is seen as a small 'c' conservative who, in desperation, made a deal with the NDP. Layton will be seen as the hero of this piece and his voters will probably stay put because they have someone to believe in again. The Bloc will continue to benefit from the Gomery scandal.
By
Greg, at 9:03 a.m.
Another useful aspect of this for the Liberals is that it changes the subject . The daily grind of scandelous headlines was killing them. Just getting something else in the papers--will they or won't they? are these policy shifts good or bad? reactions from x, y, and z? will the two sick Tories make it to Ottawa?--helps stem the tide.
By
buckets, at 10:47 a.m.
Well, CG I know you never really were a pig "Team Martin" fan, however, I think today we've seen Rick Mercer's founding Liberal principal in action "We will sell our own mothers to hang onto power." Evidently it is written on a plaque somewhere in latin. Paul Martin hasn't just sold his mother out, Paul Martin has sold himself out. At the very least he's sold the Paul Martin of two or three years ago out. Whither the Paul Martin who was the pillar of financial rectitude, the deficit slaying hero? The taxcutter and fiscal conservative?
Now we have the Paul Martin who cuts a deal with Smirkin' Jack Layton to run up spending past already boggling levels, and to essentially nix as many as 340,000 jobs being added to the economy according to the C.D. Howe Institute. Its a big no to investment, business, jobs, and growth. And for what? A bit of NDP cover as Paul Martin tries to shore up his political credibility, it doesn't even see him through a non-confidence vote.
It seems Paul Martin's political soul is for sale, while Jack Layton's integrity and believe in honest government evidently can be bought.
This is ultimately the sort of disgusting filpflops on both their parts that turn people off of politics. ONe day the Liberals are saying how these tax cuts are necessary, the next they've changed their mind. One day the NDP are accusing the Liberals of corruption, they next "let's make a deal".
By
Chris, at 12:24 p.m.
Running up spending to boggling levels?
Thats what Mulroney did.. thats what Bush is doing (aided by an idiotic tax cut).
Last I looked Chris, even with these new programs in place.. Martin is still running a surplus and is putting forth money to pay down the debt.
Last I looked, most Canadians dont want an election til Gomery comes out.. Layton's merely (brilliantly) tapping into that sentiment with "Let's Make Parliament woril Til Gomery Comes Out" line.
Quite frankly.. if this budget goes down to defeat, I'm going to love listening to Harper sputter and fume on the campaign trail about "corruption" and "Gomery" while he tries to explain to voters why he was in such a rush to go to an election when the public would just as easily have thrown out the Liberals in November if Gomery rules that these allegations are true.
Explaining how he wants to kill proposals to help affordable housing , the environment and so on while entering back into BMD negotiations with the US ought to be a laugh-a-minute as well.
If Harper were smart, he'd bide his time... but he apparently has taken the bait; he was fuming down in Ridgetown Ontario today about how he was going to try and defeat this govrenment at the earliest moment possible.
Good luck Stephen... in my opinion, you've just thrown a lifeline to the Liberals if you go thru with that threat, as well as causing the NDP to gain in popularity.
By
Oxford County Liberals, at 4:19 p.m.
CalgaryGrit:
I'm not sure all of those "blue Liberal" voters, who thought Paul Martin was smart enough to stay away from the big-spending Grits of yore and could therefore vote Lib instead of Tory, will be impressed. This may yet cause Martin some grief, especially in suburban/ex-urban Ontario.
S. Swine: You're stoked b/c the NDP is finally doing something "outside of BC"? What about MB and SK - or are they too "common sense-ical" to be counted as *true* NDP govt's ;)
- Jason.
By
Jason Hickman, at 6:15 p.m.
Scott you have nailed it. The narrative for the election will be: On the one hand we have a tired corrupt government and on the other we have a man so consumed by ambition that he will do anything to become Prime Minister. If you are tired of the same old politics, vote NDP.
By
Greg, at 6:20 p.m.
Greg:
I was thinking about posting something on these lines on the BlogsCanada column I write. Only reason I hesitate is I've written 2 columns yeesterday there and have most of the conservative community foaming at the mouth (not sure if they hated my 1 column more of what i said or because of the smiling visage of Jack Layton I posted there).... although Jim Elve probably loves it for the traffic its bringing in.
By
Oxford County Liberals, at 6:44 p.m.
Ahhhh... I threw caution to the wind and posted something anyhow.. I quote you in the column Greg.. hope you dont mind ;)
By
Oxford County Liberals, at 7:41 p.m.
Not at all.
By
Greg, at 8:30 p.m.
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