Sunday, November 21, 2004

The Kleinfeld Campaign

It's been a fun campaign. I've felt a lot more motivated to get involved in this one than for the federal election since I can really get behind Kevin Taft and his platform and Ralph Klein has pissed me off in a million ways Stephen Harper never could. Here's what I wrote before the election started. My seat predictions then were:

PC 64
Lib 16
NDP 2
Alliance 1

Still seems around right to me. If I had to revise, I might give the NDP 3, Alliance 0, and Liberals 14.

As for Calgary, I'm fairly confident we'll take one or two here. Dave Taylor should win and there's a few the Liberals have a chance at. Here's what I feel the top ridings will be in Calgary. So, if you live in one of these ridings, it's extremely important that you get out and vote on Monday (of course, everyone should vote regardless).

Can Win

1. Calgary Currie: Dave Taylor is one of the best candidates the Liberals have recruited in a long time. High profile, great speaker, and very knowledgeable. The media love this guy since he's one of them and he's got a huge edge in signs and presence in the riding. Couple this with invisible presence from the NDP, Greens and Alliance and I think he's got at least a 2 in 3 chance of taking it tomorrow.

2. Calgary MountainView: They key here is bringing in the NDP vote. David Swann is a high enough profile guy that I think he might be able to do this. I haven't had great reception at the door whenever I've door knocked this riding but everyone else in this campaign is very optimistic.

3. Calgary McCall: This has been a very well organized campaign. Lots of money and they've door knocked the entire riding. Darshan Khan is on good terms with the very large Sikh community in the riding and if he can mobilize them, he has an outside chance.

4. Calgary Buffalo: This is traditionally a strong riding but I just don't get the sense that it's been a very well run campaign. But the votes are there and with the weak provincial wide campaign by Klein, I'm hoping that'll be enough to tilt it our way.

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Will Show Well

5. Calgary Varsity: There's been a real push to get University students to vote this time around and if Harry Chase can get them out, it will definitely help him. Likely not enough to win, but he'll do very well.

6. Calgary Montrose: A lot of talk about this riding because of the controversy with the Ward 10 Aldermanic vote. The defeated alderwoman's husband is running for the Liberals here and the incumbent, Hung Pham, was temporarily investigated. A very weird riding but the demographics just aren't there to win it.

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Nice People, Good Campaigns, Won't Win

7. Calgary Glenmore: Avalon Roberts took on Stephen Harper and she's once again going for it. Great healthcare advocate and the people of Calgary would benefit immensely from her presence in Edmonton. Won't happen and it's our loss.

8. Calgary Foothills: Stephen Jeneuth is a great guy and they've had some creative ideas. But this is one of those ridings which Saddam Hussein could win as a Conservative.


Regardless of which riding you live in, get out and vote on Monday. The times they are a changing...

4 Comments:

  • What about Calgary Northwest? Judy Stewart didn't even make your "nice try" list - any thoughts on her chances?

    By Blogger D'Arcy, at 1:45 PM  

  • I've never met Judy so I didn't include her on my list but I've heard nothing but good things about her. As for her chances, I'd be very surprised if she won...it's tough riding.

    Other candidates who I've heard good things about but haven't met include:

    Kelly McDonnell (Bow)
    Mike Queenan (Egmont)
    Stephen Brown (Elbow)
    John Roggeveen (Shaw)
    Pat Murray (Northhill)

    Like Judy, I doubt these guys will win but I really do hope they do well.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 2:43 PM  

  • Just to give you some word from Edmonton - I'm smelling blood in McClung. Mark Norris doesn't look like he has the same level of strong support that he did against Nancy MacBeth in 2001, and Mo Elsalhy is running a very hard campaign.

    I personally distributed 500+ anti-Norris fliers to homes/townhouses in the community... if nothing else, I don't think Norris will get over 50% of the vote like he did last time. The NDP is putting more effort into the area, which is unfortunate (but I've only seen two NDP signs up on PRIVATE property... and my brother managed to convert one of the NDP-ers to the Liberal side).

    There are LOTS of unpredictable races in Edmonton... there's no telling what could happen. I'm bringing out three non-voters to the polls this time, because I can feel that every vote will make a difference.

    By Blogger Jim, at 9:20 PM  

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