Monday, September 14, 2009

A wild (rose) ride in Calgary Glenmore

Yeah, yeah, by-elections are meaningless. The Alberta PCs lost the Elbow by election in 2007 and a year later, they swept the province, winning 70 seats.

But it's hard for them to not be at least a little worried by what's going on tonight. With 56 of 66 polls reporting:

Hinman (Wild Rose Alliance): 3,261
Roberts (Liberals): 2,986
Colley-Urquart (PCs): 2,219
Carpendale (NDP): barely cracking triple digits

This isn't just PCs staying home (although that's definitely happening). The Wild Rose Alliance, a leaderless party, has already more than tripled their 2008 vote total.

That's something the PCs should be very, very concerned about.

UPDATE: With the advance polls still to come, Hinman is up by 275 votes on the Liberals and 1,124 on the PCs. Assuming his lead holds (I have no idea how much of a push the parties made to get people out for the advance vote), Hinman would have the only 2 wins in WRA (and their previous incarnations) history - in two different ridings, hundreds of miles apart. That's no small feat.



  • The PCs seem to have moved left (but not too far!) or right. Maybe the right can split the vote for a while in future Alberta politics.

    By Blogger Ian, at 11:36 p.m.  

  • This could be the begging of the end for the Tory dynasty

    By Anonymous Harry Strom, at 11:40 p.m.  

  • This confirms what the pundits have been saying. The Wildrose Alliance Party is on its way up and all eyes will be on Danielle Smith.

    Since you're in the punditry business yourself, I'll ask what you think. Will Stelmach still be the PC leader when the next provincial election comes?

    By Blogger Kalim Kassam, at 12:26 a.m.  

  • I wonder if Mr. Stelmach is hearing the theme music from Jaws.

    Or maybe this is like byelections before, that really mean nothing when the real ones come along.

    I'm bettin' this one is different.

    By Blogger Berry Farmer, at 1:11 a.m.  

  • All the candidates in this by-election ran good campaigns and worked very hard. While it may be a bitter pill, Dr. Roberts should be pleased to have come so close with some vote splitting that surely occurred. Had Paul not won, I could have lived with a Liberal win because either way it sends Ed the message the the PCs are not doing a good job. That they have no vision. And that they have lost touch with the people of Alberta for whom they are working.

    I even wouldn't mind a few more Liberals picking up some seats in the next provincial election if the WRA got some too. I think a minority PC government wouldn't be bad for 1 term because they would be more likely to seek common ground with the WRA than the Liberals and hopefully that could drag them back to the right and get the government back on track.

    By Blogger Reid, at 1:33 a.m.  

  • I hope the pundits keep saying Danielle is the one.

    I think our campaign would fall apart if people started to say we were winning.

    We need to campaign from behind as it is the only thing that motivates us.

    Above my desk reads: "Your doubt it fuels me."

    By Anonymous Craig B. Chandler, at 2:29 a.m.  

  • Small correction Dan: The PC Party won 72 of 83 seats in 2008. They now hold 70. Keep up the great work!

    By Anonymous Troy Wason, at 3:08 a.m.  

  • Craig, is there ever a moment in your life when you are not a complete douche bag?

    By Anonymous YoMomma, at 5:27 a.m.  

  • The Tories aren't the only ones that should be worried, how about the Liberals?

    Just like in Calgary Elbow 2007 there was a massive anti-government protest vote, and Liberal support went from 33% all the way up to ... 34%?

    I don't think the Tories have a great deal to worry about, but the Liberals could have their status as Official Opposition on the line if the WRA is the one being seen as the alternative choice.

    By Blogger Robert Vollman, at 10:13 a.m.  

  • First off, the PC Party must move further to the right, without question.

    Secondly, the Wild Rose will go down, down, and down if Danielle Smith becomes leader. She's far too ideological.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:15 a.m.  

  • PC supporters should be buying memberships to vote for Mr. Chandler en masse.

    That may be the only way for them to save their government.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:27 a.m.  

  • Ah, yes, the By-election Extrapolation. The measure by which the Green Party took about a third of the federal seats in Canada, after May's London North Centre foray.

    By Blogger Paul, at 2:29 p.m.  

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