Friday, September 11, 2009

Poll Soup Returns

Let's face it - no one's paying attention to politics over the summer, save perhaps political blog geeks like myself. So I took a break from the monthly poll soup updates.

However, things are heating up again, and we were treated to a barrage of polls this week, making this a good time to survey the lay of the land:

Angus Reid (Sept 1-2, n = 1000 online)

CPC 33%
Lib 32%
NDP 19%
BQ 9%
GP 7%

47% happy with the way the federal government has handled the economic crisis, with 45% unhappy

Strategic Counsel (Sept 3-6, n = 1000)

CPC 35%
Lib 30%
NDP 14%
BQ 12%
GP 9%

Ekos (Sept 2-8, n=2825 demon dialed)

CPC 34.2%
Lib 30.8%
NDP 14.8%
GP 10.1%
BQ 10.0%

28% prefer fall election, 72% want it later

Nanos (Aug 28 - Sept 2, n = 1000)

CPC 37.5%
Lib 33.4%
NDP 14.8%
BQ 9.7%
GP 4.6%

Harris-Decima (Aug 27 - Sept 6, n = 2000)

CPC 34%
Lib 31%
NDP 15%
GP 10%
BQ 8%

Leger also released some Quebec numbers this week - the Bloc is up on the Libs 35% to 30%, with the NDP and Tories tied at 16% each

OVERALL (change since June in brackets)

CPC 34.7% (+2.7%)
Lib 31.4% (-2.5%)
NDP 15.5% (-0.3%)
BQ 9.7% (-0.1%)
Green 8.1% (+0.2%)



  • It'd be interesting to list the margin of error for each of these polls. It's amusing to hear one side or the other proclaimed as being ahead when nearly all of the polls in the past few weeks have had the leading two parties within the margin of error. Margins also make it difficult to spot meaningful trends in support movement. Even more ridiculous are those in the media proclaiming the election over before it's started over these wholly inconclusive numbers.

    By Blogger ChrisInKW, at 12:07 p.m.  

  • Yeeehs!

    harper wants to do EI reform too. He might back down from an election. Leadership from the rear!

    By Blogger JimTan, at 12:02 a.m.  

  • Wasn't it Churchill who famously said, "Polls are for dogs"? I concurr. The horse race analogy has run its course; issues matter more!

    By Blogger Party of One, at 2:41 a.m.  

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