Tuesday, June 03, 2008

Alexa McDonough...

...announces her retirement from politics. Being a former NDP leader, one presumes this is just to set up her "comeback" in 5 or 10 years.

I'm not familiar with the local dynamics, but one would imagine that this puts Halifax into play:

2006 Halifax Election Results
McDonough (NDP) 46.9%
MacKinnon (Lib) 30.9%
House (Con) 18%
Wright (Green) 3.9%
Seed (ML) 0.3%

UPDATE: Rumours abound about possible NDP candidates.

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  • Sad to see her go. Although I don't think she was the most effective leader for the NDP to have. While she helped the NDP rebound after the crazy 1993 election, she certainly did not do much to expand the vote beyond its regaining its presence in Atlantic Canada. Layton has been a much better leader.

    Still, I like her and wish here well in her retirement.

    The Halifax seat is safe M/L in the next election.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:17 a.m.  

  • CG: you don't know the area - there is no way that this seat is in play. Currently, the riding is SURROUNDED by NDP MLAs. Nice try though...

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:21 a.m.  

  • You may be right, but Alexa only won by 2% in 2004, and the NDP vote was fairly minimal there prior to her being elected.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 10:40 a.m.  

  • You mean, the NDP vote over ten years ago? Halifax is the NDP's stronghold in the province, and every single provincial riding within the federal one is held by the NS NDP. So, no, the riding is not in play, unless there's a very high profile Liberal candidate (like Sheila Fougere) and a pushover NDP candidate. It's very unlikely.

    By Blogger JG, at 11:39 a.m.  

  • The NDP candidate to succeed Alexa will likely be her step-daughter who ran against Peter McKay and came second in the last federal election. As the only female MP from Atlantic Canada, Alexa will likely want her successor to be female.

    By Blogger nuna d. above, at 12:09 p.m.  

  • Having lived in that riding a couple of years back, I could see it going either of two ways, but not conservative.

    My guess is that whichever of the Liberals or NDP lands a high profile candidate will probably win. The Libs almost unseated Alexa in 2004 by running Sheila Fougere, a high-profile city councillor.

    By Blogger Unknown, at 12:55 p.m.  

  • Certainly, at the provincial level, the NDP is strong in Halifax, but provincial/federal correlations are pretty weak in most cases; the Liberals nearly won here in 2004, so obviously it's not completely out of the question. They'd need a strong candidate, though, since I imagine McDonough has a lot of residual goodwill.

    The NDP hasn't elected anyone new from the Maritimes since 1997; it's just been a gradual whittling-away of the 1997 high.

    By Blogger IslandLiberal, at 3:03 p.m.  

  • The seat is very much in play, in my no-I'm-not-on-the-ground-there opinion.

    Since 1997, it's been all downhill for the NDP regionally, and Liberal support has continued to grow, partially by reabsorbing old Grits that had defected NDPwards in '97 and partially by assimilating a sizeable portion of the old Robert Stanfield Red Tory flank.

    The only MPs left in the area are Stoffer and McDonough, both of whom would fall into the rightish end of that national caucus. Stoffer's incredibly genial and likeable and probably electable in his seat with any political label. Alexa also has had a strong personal vote, on account of a high profile and obvious personal integrity.

    But a hard base of leftist voters that will vote for whoever the NDP offer up? I don't know if that really exists in NS, or if it's ever really existed. The NDP'll need to find another very solid candidate, I think.

    I'd also be cautious into reading too much into provincial results. The provincial Liberals have been in the tank for some time now, and that hasn't stopped the federal party from vacuuming up a fair number of votes in the past two federal elections that the numbers indicate must be scattering to both the left and right in provincial elections.

    Besides, Dexter's provdippers are a rather different kettle of fish (zing) than Layton's gang in ideological terms.

    Finally, because I haven't seen it crop up anywhere else yet, can I start the "Draft Danny Graham" whisper campaign?

    By Blogger Tom, at 6:20 p.m.  

  • Tom - no you can't. At least not until Paul Hellyer has definitely ruled out a run

    By Blogger Reality Bites, at 7:54 a.m.  

  • MacKinnon is running again and I think he has a chance out here. I think people voted for Alexa because she was well liked and high profile.. not because she was NDP.

    If the NDP do run Alexis MacDonald who moved here from Central Nova it will be tough though. She's a good candidate.

    By Blogger me dere robert, at 8:51 a.m.  

  • Oops.. I thought MacKinnon was running again. I guess it's not for sure.

    By Blogger me dere robert, at 8:58 a.m.  

  • MacKinnon ran a weak campaign last time and will lose. If the grits get a better candidate, the seat is definitely winnable for them.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:53 a.m.  

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