tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-69013542024-03-29T02:44:30.724-04:00CalgaryGritCanadian Politics, Canadian Politics and more Canadian Politics.
From the mind of a Calgary Liberal, now living in the centre of the universe.calgarygrithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14496123174056722783noreply@blogger.comBlogger3121125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6901354.post-56455845583871093572012-06-01T14:00:00.000-04:002012-08-20T17:12:52.099-04:00Moving DayFew governments can last two terms without succumbing to a "time for a change" sentiment. And after blogging for 8 years, I'm feeling very much the same.<br />
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So thanks to a generous "blog redesign tax credit" from Canada's New Government, this blog has <a href="http://www.calgarygrit.ca/">switched over</a> to Wordpress at <a href="http://www.calgarygrit.ca/">www.calgarygrit.ca</a>.<br />
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<strong>So please update your bookmarks to </strong><a href="http://www.calgarygrit.ca/"><strong>www.calgarygrit.ca</strong></a><strong>, and your RSS feeds to </strong><a href="http://www.calgarygrit.ca/?feed=rss2"><strong>http://www.calgarygrit.ca/?feed=rss2</strong></a>. As a reminder, you can also follow me on <a href="https://www.facebook.com/pages/Calgary-Grit/166930123370629">Facebook</a> or <a href="https://twitter.com/#%21/calgarygrit">Twitter</a>.<br />
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<a href="http://www.calgarygrit.ca/"><b><i>Click here to visit the new site.</i></b></a><br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFMsLGcvmYRNsRnBQCXOjxMAXESiPAQduPt-bYt4h3vB4SNmeySJ9Pqx3pPq0uxnx82SmJ-0J7htpTHsfiAuNMqHIqhMqY21NQsB9OH9E0fWzMQtT8uJk_P4DnrZ6J2tdeycec/s1600/calgaryskyline.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left:1em; margin-right:1em"><img border="0" height="92" width="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFMsLGcvmYRNsRnBQCXOjxMAXESiPAQduPt-bYt4h3vB4SNmeySJ9Pqx3pPq0uxnx82SmJ-0J7htpTHsfiAuNMqHIqhMqY21NQsB9OH9E0fWzMQtT8uJk_P4DnrZ6J2tdeycec/s320/calgaryskyline.JPG" /></a></div><br />
Looking for <a href="http://www.rosemancorp.com/calgary">corporate suite rentals in Calgary</a>? Then visit <a href="http://www.rosemancorp.com/calgary/">Roseman Suites</a>.calgarygrithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14496123174056722783noreply@blogger.com400tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6901354.post-46118255453976602992012-05-24T10:00:00.000-04:002012-05-24T10:00:05.969-04:00Mulcair Takes on the West<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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What started out as musings on the <a href="http://www.globalnews.ca/mobile/news/canada/mobile/plus/mulcair+sticks+to+dutch+disease+diagnosis+despite+conflicting+evidence/6442642767/story.html">health of Ontario's manufacturing sector</a> has quickly escalated into a full fledged <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/western-premiers-fire-back-at-mulcair-in-mud-fight/article2434996/">war of words</a> between Tom Mulcair and the western Premiers. It's an important shift in the dialogue, because going to war with the West is a lot different than going to war with the oilsands - after all, you won't find many "save our oilsands" protests in front of Libby Davies' Vancouver East constituency office. <br />
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Mulcair <a href="http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/05/16/western-premiers-call-out-ndp-leader/">picking a fight</a> with Premiers Clark, Redford, and Wall has led to his first patch of negative press since winning the NDP leadership - and rightly so. Calling Premiers who stick up for local industry "<a href="http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/05/15/thomas-mulcair-oil-sands/">messengers of Stephen Harper</a>" (in a tone that makes them sound like a swarm of Nazgul) brings him down to the level of Jim Flaherty, who routinely plays the role of <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/john-ibbitson/in-attacking-ontario-ottawa-plays-a-dangerous-game/article2388767/">Ontario's leader of the opposition</a>.<br />
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I think we can all agree Mulcair <i>shouldn't</i> be disparaging the Premiers on this issue, but it's less clear whether or not this is a shrewd tactical move, or another case of Mulcair <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2011/05/04/pol-mulcair-osama.html">not thinking before opening his mouth</a>.<br />
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The first thing to consider is the popularity of the people Mulcair is attacking. We know Brad Wall is <a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2011/07/today-in-slightly-more-interesting.html">more popular than God</a> and Alison Redford just pulled off a <a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/04/40-more-years-40-more-years.html">small miracle</a> in Alberta. However, the third member of this trinity has seen better days and <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/05/14/bc-ndp-poll.html">now trails the provincial NDP by 27 points</a> - so it's hard to fault Mulcair for alligning himself with the BC Dippers. Even in Saskatchewan, the fallout from attacking Wall might be minimal, as the provincial and federal NDP received similar shares of the popular vote during elections there last year. Just as there are many western voters who share Mulcair's disdain for the oilsands, there are many western voters who nodded in agreement as Mulcair criticized their premiers.<br />
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In the broader picture, the trade-off between votes in the East and votes in the West might explain Mulcair's gambit. To form government, the NDP will need to pick up at least 30-50 more seats next election. Of the 50 ridings the NDP came closest to winning in 2011, just 16 are in Western Canada - moreover, there are only four seats in Western Canada the party won by less than 10% last election, suggesting it will take more than a Twitter feud with Brad Wall to bring Mulcair down.<br />
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So there's an argument to be made for concentrating on eastern voters, if you buy that the NDP's road to 24 Sussex bypasses the West. If that's the case, Mulcair's salvo on the oilsands might not be the gaffe its being portrayed as, and it won't be the last time he picks a fight with the western provinces.<br />
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Of course, Western Canada will be gaining new seats in 2015, and there's the long game to think about. On that front, Mulcair would be well served learning from the party he hopes to replace. For years the Liberals won elections by scapegoating the West and, in particular, the oil industry. This electoral math equation usually paid off, but in the long run it has left Western Canada a charred dust-bowl for the Liberals, with nothing more than 4 specs of red west of Ontario left on the map.<br />
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Even if Mulcair can score a few extra seats in 2015 by playing the regions against each other, it's not a strategy that is likely to pay off for the NDP in the long run.calgarygrithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14496123174056722783noreply@blogger.com133tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6901354.post-86919476208158696482012-05-23T14:50:00.000-04:002012-05-23T14:52:11.982-04:00How a Bill Becomes a Law<center><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia;"><em>“At the end of the day, in my opinion, they’ve made up their mind and this is how we’re going to vote. One person is not going to make a difference, one MP is not going to make a difference.”</em></span><br />
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In some respects, I feel bad for David Wilks. The <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=pnGgqEpfkCw">video</a> that will ultimately destroy his political career doesn't involve bigoted comments, cocaine, or underage girls - it's a candid discussion with 30 constituents about how Ottawa works. <br />
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In it, Wilks voices his displeasure with his party's budget, while lamenting that a whiped vote means he has no choice but to support it.<br />
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<center><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="252" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/pnGgqEpfkCw" width="448"></iframe></center><br />
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Wilks could easily have blown off this roundtable, recognizing no one attending was ever going to vote Conservative. There are certainly more enjoyable ways to spend a sunny morning in Kootenay-Columbia than walking into a room full of discontents. Instead, Wilks listened and interacted with the people he represents, and he should be applauded for that.<br />
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That said, the man has no one to blame for this controversy other than himself. If he truly supports the budget - <i><a href="http://www.david-wilks.ca/media_/riding-news/statement-in-response-to-a-media-report-on-bill-c-38">as he now claims to do</a></i> - he should have thanked his constituents for their feedback, said he'd consider what they said, then explained to them <i>why </i>he supported the budget.<br />
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If he truly opposes the budget - <i><a href="http://www.bclocalnews.com/news/152767865.html">as he said he did yesterday</a></i> - he should vote against it. Wilks is wrong when he says one MP can't make a difference. John Nunziata and Bill Casey brought more attention to the budgets they opposed than they ever would have by meekly supporting them. Michael Chong's opposition to the Quebec Nation resolution may have prevented Harper from going further down that road. I also like to think that the more acts of defiance we get, the more likely we are to see an attitudinal change in Ottawa that gives a greater say to individual MPs. Some may disagree with me, but I think that would be a welcome shift.<br />
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And while it should never be the primary reason for opposing your own government, Nunziata, Casey, and Chong all made names for themselves, were heralded for their decisions, and were rewarded by their constituents at the ballot box.<br />
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In comparison, all Wilks' weak-kneed approach ensures is that he will <em>never</em> make it to Cabinet, and that he now has a reputation of placing his party ahead of his conscience and his constituents.calgarygrithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14496123174056722783noreply@blogger.com165tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6901354.post-10525412062350904112012-05-18T14:18:00.001-04:002012-05-18T14:18:59.722-04:00Rematch in Etobicoke CentreDespite all the close votes over the years, <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/05/18/pol-court-throws-out-etobicoke-centre-election-wrzesnewskyj.html">this</a> is a first:<br />
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<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Election result in Toronto riding thrown out by judge</span></b><br />
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Conservative MP Ted Opitz's 2011 federal election win last year in Etobicoke Centre was declared null and void today in a challenge by former Liberal MP Borys Wrzesnewskyj.<br />
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Opitz won the May 2011 election by 26 votes, but Wrzesnewskyj challenged the results over voting irregularities.<br />
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Justice Thomas Lederer's decision Friday in Toronto, if appealed, would be immediately heard by the Supreme Court of Canada. <br />
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Wrzesnewskyj's lawyer argued up to 181 ballots were in dispute.</blockquote>
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We can safely assume this will be appealed, but if the ruling is upheld, Harper would have 6 months to call a by-election - and you can make the case he'd be morally obliged to call it ASAP, given the circumstances. While the stakes won't be as high as in <a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/05/mcguintys-majority-move.html">Kitchener-Waterloo</a>, a <a href="http://www.parl.gc.ca/parlinfo/Files/Parliamentarian.aspx?Item=6cef02a4-e5dd-44f0-9355-faf30afbb856&Language=E&Section=ALL">Wrzesnewskyj</a>-<a href="http://www.tedopitz.ca/">Opitz</a> rematch would still be must-see TV.calgarygrithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14496123174056722783noreply@blogger.com121tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6901354.post-28693732272286242662012-05-16T09:00:00.000-04:002012-05-16T09:00:03.107-04:00The Third WayThe latest <a href="http://www.globaltoronto.com/federal%2Bliberals%2Blosing%2Bsupport%2Bas%2Bndp%2Btories%2Bbattle%2Bfor%2Btop%2Bspot%2Bpoll/6442640892/story.html">Ipsos poll</a> paints a rather dreary picture of Liberal fortunes, with what was once the natural governing party languishing more than 15 points behind <i>both </i>the NDP and the Conservatives.<br />
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Of course, the NDP are in their post-leadership honeymoon, the Liberals don't have a permanent leader, and a horse race poll when politics is the farthest thing from the electorate's mind won't tell you a lot. But I think we can safely assume the Liberals <i>are </i>a distant third, trailing two parties who are both intent on hugging the centre of the road, making it almost impossible to pass them. So what's a centrist party to do?<br />
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I agree with Rae's <a href="http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1174001--tim-harper-bob-rae-tells-liberals-to-remain-calm-hold-the-middle-ground?bn=1">message </a>of staying to the middle of the spectrum, but the days of finding sunny compromises between the NDP and Conservative extremes on every single issue are numbered. When you're the third place party you need to give people a reason to vote <i>for</i> you, and a <span class="st">milquetoast platform topped with some language about the "extremist" positions of two very non-extremist parties </span>isn't going to be convincing.<br />
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Faced with this new reality, the challenge is standing out and being noticed. That likely means on occasion passing the two parties ahead of you on the right, and on occasion passing them on the left. So maybe the Liberals adopt a few "right wing" economic policies even the Conservatives dare not touch, like the abolishment of supply management. Maybe it means "out-NDPing" the NDP by proposing a national pharmacare program. <br />
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Of course, the entire concept of a left-right political spectrum is somewhat arbitrary when you think about it. Is democratic reform a right wing or a left wing issue? Either way, parties talk a lot less about it the closer they get to power, so there may be an opening there for the Liberals who are decidedly nowhere near power. There's certainly an opening on the "Quebec question", given the PQ may be in power a year from now, and both the Tories and NDP have spent long nights flirting with the separatists in recent years.<br />
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The other thing to consider is the dirty little secret that most voters aren’t reading through party platforms and casting their vote based on policy. Did Jack Layton leap from third to second because voters found his policies that much more compelling than Ignatieff's? Most voters would be hard pressed to identify a single area of cleavage between the two party platforms. <br />
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Now, I’m not saying the Liberals are one leadership change away from power. As I’ve written before, there’s a lot of structural work to be done, and even if voters didn’t know the intricacies of the Liberal and NDP platforms last election, they had a clear impression of party <i>brands</i>, and an overall sense of party <i>values</i>. But a party’s leader <i>does</i> matter, and it’s just as important to have a leader who can differentiate himself or herself from Mulcair and Harper, as it is to have policies that can be differentiated from the NDP and CPC platforms. That doesn’t mean the Liberals should search for the anti-Mulcair or shy away from an experienced and polished politician like Harper – only that there needs to be some kind of “value add” that makes their leader stand out. The brilliance of Jack was that he always smiled and could connect with voters – that’s an ability Michael Ignatieff lacked completely, and one both Harper and Mulcair struggle with.<br />
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In the past, all the Liberals needed to do to get elected was wedge themselves squarely between the extremes. There are still many issues for which that strategy makes sense from both an ideological and political perspective. But adopting that knee-jerk approach on <i>every </i>issue and failing to stand out is a sure fire path to irrelevance.calgarygrithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14496123174056722783noreply@blogger.com90tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6901354.post-74995120730663489562012-05-08T10:00:00.000-04:002012-05-08T10:00:04.150-04:00An update on all the people MAYBE running for Liberal leadershipThe expectation is that rules for the Liberal leadership race will come down <a href="http://www.canada.com/decision+Liberals+leadership+race+rules+party/6499947/story.html">in June</a>, setting the stage for a summer of getting to know the men and women wanting to lead Canada's third party.<br />
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But while we won't know the rules of the race for another month or two, that hasn't limited speculation in the interim...or <a href="http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/04/30/bob-rae-likely-to-to-resign-from-interim-gig-to-run-for-liberal-party-leadership/">speculation <i>about </i>the interim leader</a>, for that matter.<br />
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Back in January, I looked at the <a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/01/update-on-all-people-not-running-for.html">ten most commonly rumoured Liberal leadership candidates</a>...and <a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/01/update-on-all-people-not-running-for_31.html">18 fun longshots</a> - the Naheed Nenshis and Amanda Langs of the world. Today, an update on the names that were most on the lips of delegates at the Liberal Party of Canada (Ontario) convention in Toronto this past weekend.<br />
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Don't count on it</h3>
From that January list of ten "buzz" candidates, we can likely scratch off Scott Brison and Dominic Leblanc. While their names still get floated in most newspaper articles, the Liberals I know who would be first in line to support them aren't expecting either Maritimer to toss their cap into the ring. <br />
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Which is a shame, because both represent the kind of generational change the party needs - and both are highly engaging and entertaining speakers, with pleasant demeanors that would contrast nicely with the gruff angry man personas of Harper and Mulcair. <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyJAkzNQr95CWmOg-YUG54PIsMO4O17H4KpuGlvaZchHJwOjqymrQCHLn0lcqMKSbQFH9CD7x6VyNN8zBVP21BDwhCRUridfRtgpgcZh4EZ289MO4Kv1wkCjLtnuoYM6ftVCoO/s1600/Rae+and+McGuinty.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyJAkzNQr95CWmOg-YUG54PIsMO4O17H4KpuGlvaZchHJwOjqymrQCHLn0lcqMKSbQFH9CD7x6VyNN8zBVP21BDwhCRUridfRtgpgcZh4EZ289MO4Kv1wkCjLtnuoYM6ftVCoO/s320/Rae+and+McGuinty.jpg" width="300" /></a></div>
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<h3>
The Big Names</h3>
While this is very much anybody's race to win, in my mind there are three candidates who would instantly vault to frontrunner status if they ran. <br />
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Trudeau. McGuinty. Rae. <br />
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All three are political superstars with the name recognition and organizations that would make them very difficult to beat.<br />
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While <b>Justin Trudeau</b> has done his best Chris Christie impersonation by repeatedly denying he has any interest in running, there have been new rumblings about his potential candidacy in recent months - and they haven't <i>just </i>been fueled by his TKO of Senator Brazeau, or idle media speculation.<br />
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The word on the street is that Justin is listening to the calls for him to run, though I'm still skeptical he'll move beyond the listening stage. The man has shown remarkable restraint thus far in his political career, so the smart money is on him waiting until next time. That said, if the Liberals make the wrong choice there may not be a "next time".<br />
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The reaction to <b>Dalton McGuinty</b> at January's convention was electric, and he would enter the race with a formidable track record and political machine behind him. But given he's fighting tooth and nail to <a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/05/mcguintys-majority-move.html">tip the scales in Ontario to a majority</a>, I seriously doubt he'd resign his own seat and plunge the OLP into a leadership race. There's also the harsh reality that, for perhaps the first time since confederation, leading the Ontario Liberal Party is a more glamorous job than leading the federal Liberal Party. <br />
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Of course, if big brother isn't interested, perhaps little brother will be. <b>David McGuinty</b> was one of the first candidates to openly muse about a leadership bid, but he's never acted like someone coveting the top job. The man rarely leaves his own riding and was a no-show in Toronto this weekend.<br />
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So what about <b>Bob</b>? One year ago, Rae categorically ruled it out, solemnly swearing he would not seek the top job, saying it was time for "a new generation of leadership". <a href="http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/04/16/bob-rae-and-liberal-leadership-dance/">Now</a>? He says a decision hasn't been made, and he's waiting on the rules. It's a politician's answer, and even his most ardent critics agree Rae may be one of the greatest politicians of his time. For this reason, many would follow him without hesitation if he runs - but others are so dead set against Rae they'd sooner back Alfonso Gagliano. <br />
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<h3>
Seriously considering a run</h3>
<b>Martha Hall Findlay</b> sounds like the most serious of the "maybe" candidates. She's been sending out newsletters, holding events, and getting herself in front of cameras - Findlay herself acknowledges it's "<a href="http://www.hilltimes.com/news/politics/2012/05/07/kennedy-hall-findlay-still-mulling-run-for-federal-liberal-leadership/30676">not a secret</a>" she's thinking about it. While Martha was the plucky underdog the last time she ran for leader, she's definitely in it to win it this go around.<br />
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Also from the class of 2006 is <strong>Gerard Kennedy</strong>, who has <a href="http://www.ipolitics.ca/2012/03/19/gerard-kennedy/">openly mused about running</a>. Kennedy was ahead of his time with his "renewal" themed campaign, back when Liberals assumed everything could be fixed with a new leader. He has continued to beat that drum of late, holding renewal roundtables, renewal BBQs, and renewal pub nights. The real key for Kennedy will be how many renewal french lessons he's taken in the past few years.<br />
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One of the guests at Gerard's <a href="http://phpliberals.ca/?p=57">Political Renewal Fair</a> a few weeks back was <b>Kirsty Duncan</b>. Duncan would be a great addition to the race, as an intelligent well spoken woman. If she runs, expect a strong focus on Health Care and the environment from her campaign, as she has written books on these topics.<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjL9hNVqti74bDPVC02pCUhDb7DwWFLo6gMIM7oeIvirEnBFSH-Kj8k7RA0MfRnaHzTDpW8Fd_f07A-yxyrge5iClUTcl6XZyrEOshVLal_zUWqeLjz6Kyho45xdS6RqivNvvf2/s1600/coderre+cauchon.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjL9hNVqti74bDPVC02pCUhDb7DwWFLo6gMIM7oeIvirEnBFSH-Kj8k7RA0MfRnaHzTDpW8Fd_f07A-yxyrge5iClUTcl6XZyrEOshVLal_zUWqeLjz6Kyho45xdS6RqivNvvf2/s320/coderre+cauchon.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<h3>
Envisagent sérieusement de briguer le poste de chef</h3>
If you buy into the <i>alternance </i>theory of Liberal leadership, it's time for a francophone leader, and there are certainly plenty of candidates from La Belle Province making noise.<br />
<br />
The loudest has been <b>Marc Garneau</b>. Like Ken Dryden in 2006, Garneau has plenty of star power, but the question comes down to whether or not he has <em>the right stuff</em> to lead. I hope he runs, if only because I have a dozen out of this world astronaut puns that will go to waste if he takes a pass.<br />
<br />
Even though <b>Martin Cauchon</b> and <b>Denis Coderre</b> have never run for Liberal Party leadership, they've each spent more than a decade <i>thinking</i> about it. I suspect Coderre's future lies in provincial or municipal politics, though he will undoubtedly be a major asset for whichever campaign he winds up backing this go round.<br />
<br />
Cauchon held a hospitality suite at the national convention and attended the LPCO convention this weekend - a clear signal he'd like to take on Thomas Mulcair not just in Outremont, but on the national stage. Believe it or not, he'll only turn 50 this summer, but in some ways going with Cauchon would feel like a throwback to the Chretien era. That's not necessarily a <i>bad </i>thing, but I'm not sure that's the mood of the membership.<br />
<br />
It doesn't take a lot to start a leadership rumour, so the fact that <b>Mauril Belanger</b> <a href="http://m.radio-canada.ca/regions/Ontario/2012/05/03/006-depart-mauril-belanger-comite-langues-officielles.shtml">quit the official languages committee</a> and then showed up in Toronto this weekend was enough to get people talking. Of course, being an Ontario MP, you'd <i>expect </i>him to be at an LPCO convention. And of all the things holding Mauril back from a run for Liberal leadership, I really don't think his spot on the official languages committee was very high on the list. But such is life in politics, where a new pair of glasses is taken as a sign of leadership aspirations.<br />
<br />
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<br />
<h3>
People you've never heard of</h3>
The candidates making the most noise about running at this point are the ones with no chance of winning. After all, given enough time, a politician can delude himself into thinking he has a chance at winning <i>anything</i>. Moreover, Martha Hall Findlay and Martin Singh’s longshot campaigns did wonders to raise their profiles, so it’s not even always about <em>winning </em>in the conventional sense.<br />
<br />
The most credible of the “no names” appears to be defeated candidate <b>David Bertschi</b>, a persistent worker who ran a strong campaign in Ottawa Orleans last spring. Bertschi is <a href="http://www.ipolitics.ca/2012/03/15/former-ottawa-orleans-candidate-tests-liberal-leadership-bid-sonya-bell/">assembling a team</a>, has a <a href="https://www.facebook.com/david.bertschi">website</a>, and has launched a <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eT27W4GMC3g&feature=share">teaser video</a> that tells us a lot about Canada's potential as a country...but little about Bertschi's potential as a candidate. Bertschi is a dynamic speaker one-on-one, and everyone who talked to him at the LPCO convention,<i> myself include</i>, left impressed.<br />
<br />
Also making the rounds at the Sheraton this weekend was Toronto businessman <b><a href="http://ca.linkedin.com/pub/george-takach/14/1b9/975">George Takach</a></b>. While he lacks elected experience, he'll have no trouble raising money and, in the end, the amount of coin you bring in is the deciding factor in how long you can stay in the race.<br />
<br />
Another name being floated is <a href="http://bc.liberal.ca/david-merner-president/"><b>David Merner</b></a>, the president of the BC wing of the federal Liberal Party. I've never met Merner, but this race needs a western voice or two, and to date <b><a href="http://joycemurray.liberal.ca/biography/">Joyce Murray</a></b> is the only MP west of Etobicoke making any noise about running.calgarygrithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14496123174056722783noreply@blogger.com296tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6901354.post-44423926633412676912012-05-07T09:00:00.000-04:002012-05-07T09:00:02.430-04:00The Race for Third<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEit9btKICGT3xLhabJHhJBL5PyFXFdRNB62sOIx8v1ornu_Qb7lT6SEm55lbH63HqMWeNVDZKbW8S4iiaxzTvvgudNKVTC-G3KJnHBbGoUaMh5ILVBQaj9OufZHb8iAZ1YjvfQ7Ag/s1600/trudeau+leblanc+stache.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="206" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEit9btKICGT3xLhabJHhJBL5PyFXFdRNB62sOIx8v1ornu_Qb7lT6SEm55lbH63HqMWeNVDZKbW8S4iiaxzTvvgudNKVTC-G3KJnHBbGoUaMh5ILVBQaj9OufZHb8iAZ1YjvfQ7Ag/s320/trudeau+leblanc+stache.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
Back in <a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.com/2012/02/liberal-leadership-straw-poll.html">February</a> I asked readers of this blog who they thought would <i>run </i>for Liberal leader, and who they'd consider <i>voting </i>for. Admittedly, this is as far from a scientific poll as you'll ever get, and I won't pretend that the 500+ voters in this straw poll are all Liberals. But we're not going to see anything resembling a credible Liberal leadership poll for close to a year, so let's have a little fun with what we've got.<br />
<br />
Before that, one other thing. It looks like a group of Borys Wrzesnewskyj supporters swarmed the poll late, so I've excluded Borys from my recap below. Mind you, the fact that he appears to be the <i>only </i>candidate with supporters dedicated enough to freep a web poll at this stage should likely tell you there are people out there who would like him to run. Which is more than can be said for a lot of the names I floated.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Likely to Run?</b><br />
Bob Rae 52%<br />
Dominic LeBlanc 42%<br />
Marc Garneau 38%<br />
David McGuinty 34%<br />
Gerard Kennedy 24%<br />
Martha Hall Findlay 24%<br />
Martin Cauchon 21%<br />
Denis Coderre 21%<br />
Scott Brison 18%<br />
Mark Holland 14%<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Who Would Consider Supporting?</b><br />
Bob Rae 31%<br />
Dominic LeBlanc 26%<br />
Justin Trudeau 19%<br />
Gerard Kennedy 19%<br />
Scott Brison 19%<br />
Mark Carney 17%<br />
Marc Garneau 17%<br />
Martha Hall Findlay 16%<br />
Dalton McGuinty 16%<br />
Naheed Nenshi 15%<br />
<br />
<br />
Rae is seen as the most likely to run and has the largest support base, which tells you all the talk about him being the frontrunner isn't misplaced. My man from 2008, Dominic LeBlanc, is the only candidate within striking distance of Rae on the support poll, though 11 other names earned between 11% and 19% so there are plenty of viable candidates out there.<br />
<br />
I've plotted the 16 candidates who scored at least 10% on either poll below. You can see that Trudeau, Carney, Dalton, Nenshi, Goodale, and Lang all have more people who like them than than expect them to run, leaving them as the most probable candidates for a genuine "Draft" movement. <br />
<br />
The reverse is true for the other McGuinty, Cauchon, Garneau, and Coderre but, in fairness, I suspect that Quebecers are seriously under represented on this poll.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiN9vkcWZxK6D1tUwwGOwwe05oxGEHWRSHyOpz9-RvFAx1wMspcPp4OiombWPuQ7L7CIQyXgL9ojE9g6H4ukaV6MCFM7D8Oy_bdIbrZr97ry9EsxZIK1ab5-oU2u7TOX1bZGG7nA/s1600/Leadership+Poll+Graph+March+2012.jpg"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5720200104229215442" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiN9vkcWZxK6D1tUwwGOwwe05oxGEHWRSHyOpz9-RvFAx1wMspcPp4OiombWPuQ7L7CIQyXgL9ojE9g6H4ukaV6MCFM7D8Oy_bdIbrZr97ry9EsxZIK1ab5-oU2u7TOX1bZGG7nA/s400/Leadership+Poll+Graph+March+2012.jpg" style="cursor: pointer; display: block; height: 300px; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; width: 400px;" /></a><br />
<br />
None of this means a heck of a lot when we don't even have the rules yet. But it shows there's nothing even remotely resembling a consensus on who will be running, never mind who will win.<br />
<br />
Tomorrow, I'll speculate a bit about who <i>might </i>be running, so if you're hearing any rumours, by all means float names my way.calgarygrithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14496123174056722783noreply@blogger.com164tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6901354.post-44482844120395526712012-05-04T12:32:00.002-04:002012-05-04T12:53:19.504-04:00The premier Premier<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGgwPDtHFHbYMkNhbUg4ttt0rFmp-5qJINd-uXm5YvhsJ05wQWqHvfT5e1d5n_yV2RaFq0T9Hmm87R_7poWRtkloJr6nWQ_ySho5w8J7l05g3TKShbguHIazqWw1-sUuUgpFztMA/s1600/lougheed+NOW.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGgwPDtHFHbYMkNhbUg4ttt0rFmp-5qJINd-uXm5YvhsJ05wQWqHvfT5e1d5n_yV2RaFq0T9Hmm87R_7poWRtkloJr6nWQ_ySho5w8J7l05g3TKShbguHIazqWw1-sUuUgpFztMA/s320/lougheed+NOW.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />
The <a href="http://www.irpp.org/po/archive/jun12/leonard.pdf">Institute for Research on Public Policy</a> ranks Peter Lougheed as Canada's best Premier from the last 40 years. Rounding out the top 5:<br />
<br />
1. Peter Lougheed<br />
2. William Davis<br />
3. Allan Blakeney<br />
4. Frank McKenna<br />
5. Robert Bourassa<br />
<br />
I ran a similar <a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2007/09/now.html">"best Premier" contest</a> among blog readers back in 2007, March-Madness Style. Lougheed came out on top of that one as well, edging out Oliver Mowat in the final.calgarygrithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14496123174056722783noreply@blogger.com245tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6901354.post-70804799427511039992012-05-02T18:00:00.000-04:002012-05-02T18:08:56.640-04:00Happy Anniversary!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhq1mcPjJDVG95zHGGgsJHgWkMMrZbkFfehdWIZv-j4TfNA26u01IL7WajDRWhrEuWfUcxQwt7Ck85ArTAuBWEyvVSYH4rxYMEJP9lNtIIFzdQLmTHgG_Jbd-j6m4EMmDq637Pwnw/s1600/harper+campaign.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhq1mcPjJDVG95zHGGgsJHgWkMMrZbkFfehdWIZv-j4TfNA26u01IL7WajDRWhrEuWfUcxQwt7Ck85ArTAuBWEyvVSYH4rxYMEJP9lNtIIFzdQLmTHgG_Jbd-j6m4EMmDq637Pwnw/s1600/harper+campaign.jpg" /></a></div>
<br />
<a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2011/05/elxn41.html">One year ago today</a>, Stephen Harper turned an "unwanted election" into his first majority government, Jack Layton and the NDP soared to never before seen heights, and Liberals spent the evening curled up in a fetal position sobbing in the corner.<br />
<br />
On political anniversaries, it's tempting to give each party a thumbs up or thumbs down, but the past year has been less clear cut, as the major parties try to figure out where they fit in Canada's new political dynamic.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>The Conservatives</b><br />
<br />
It feels like a "Harper majority" was hyped longer than the Phantom Menace – and the end result was just as much of a letdown. After years of being told by both the right and left that a Harper majority would mean an <i>unrecognizable </i>country, it turns out a Harper majority looks a lot like a Harper minority. I hardly think when people warned of his “hidden agenda”, abolishing the penny is what they had in mind.<br />
<br />
So if the past year has proven anything, it’s that Stephen Harper has always been and always will be an incrementalist. He has made some changes - goodbye gun registry, so long <a href="https://www.facebook.com/Pennies4Katimavik?filter=1">Katimavik</a>...CBC and <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/conservative-cuts-put-half-of-statscan-jobs-at-risk/article2418557/">Statscan</a>, you can stay, but we’ll make your job a bit harder, in the hope the public begins to question your value. These are bigger changes than he made during the minority years, but the man isn’t reshaping Canada as we know it.<br />
<br />
While none of those moves prompted a large backlash, there are storm clouds on the horizon. The F-35 fiasco could tarnish his reputation as a strong financial manager. A stagnant economy would speak directly against the ballot question he was elected on. Robocon could blow up in his face. <a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/04/for-those-sick-of-blog-posts-on-alberta.html">Bev Oda</a> is still in Cabinet, so that alone guarantees us a few hilarious screw ups.<br />
<br />
<i>Outlook</i>: Harper survived year one of the majority unscathed, but he survived with Nicole Turmel as leader of the opposition. The next year will be harder than the last.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>The NDP</b><br />
<br />
The past 13 months have been the most turbulent in this “new” party’s long history, filled with <a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2011/05/election-post-mortem-ndp.html">highs</a>, <a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2011/08/jack-layton-1950-2011.html">lows</a>...and <a href="http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1151442--ndp-leadership-high-voter-turnout-causes-delays-for-new-democrats-casting-ballots-online">voting delays</a>.<br />
<br />
Jack Layton’s death was tragic, but life has gone on for the Dippers. Their leadership race may not have generated the excitement they hoped it would, but they came out of it with the only leader who has a realistic shot at ever living at 24 Sussex, so that’s a point in their column.<br />
<br />
With the exception of a few easily forgotten floor crossings, their rookie caucus hasn’t been the embarrassment we thought it would be, so that’s another point for the boys in orange.<br />
<br />
<i>Outlook</i>: Mulcair is in the midst of his leadership honeymoon, but he’s been treated to the kid gloves by the Conservatives so far. That’s going to change if Harper ever decides Mulcair is a legitimate threat.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>The Liberals</b><br />
<br />
On March 31st, Justin Trudeau <a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/04/rare-liberal-victory.html">knocked out</a> Tory Senator Patrick Brazeau. There haven’t been many highlights over the <em>other</em> 365 days since election night.<br />
<br />
That’s not to say Liberal rebuilding hasn’t gone on behind the scenes. The party picked a new president with a lot of <a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2011/12/meet-mike-crawley.html">good ideas</a>. Today, the Liberals became Canada’s most open party by <a href="http://www.liberal.ca/">letting supporters register</a> to vote for the leader. Liberals finally <i>get </i>that the party needs fixing, and I’ve been surprised at the number of new faces I’ve seen at events over the past year – people who joined the party <i>after </i>May 2nd, because they wanted to save it.<br />
<br />
In front of the scenes, Rae has performed well in the interim leader’s role, but the “will he or won’t he” saga around his leadership has been a distraction.<br />
<br />
<i>Outlook</i>: The next year will be all about leadership, as the Liberals pick the man or woman who will either oversee the party’s death or its return to relevance. No pressure, though.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>The Bloc</b><br />
<br />
Can’t say I miss them.calgarygrithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14496123174056722783noreply@blogger.com96tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6901354.post-57902991515267139402012-05-01T09:00:00.000-04:002012-05-01T09:00:02.936-04:00McGuinty's Majority Move<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLEQhUoP0GcNwGTqK29KLczCDfyJgYffZnhWCr1cnSAJ8qkqkjb9AMTTqbV6p8E16nSs5BFBeAQlcr5nyAYhi3gfT28Y8q_vToM6YKlnnyJSCg5sz92_f0qgjDI1g2Ft2Uc7NLmA/s1600/witmer+hudak.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="242" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLEQhUoP0GcNwGTqK29KLczCDfyJgYffZnhWCr1cnSAJ8qkqkjb9AMTTqbV6p8E16nSs5BFBeAQlcr5nyAYhi3gfT28Y8q_vToM6YKlnnyJSCg5sz92_f0qgjDI1g2Ft2Uc7NLmA/s320/witmer+hudak.jpg" width="320" /></a><br />
<br />
As I wrote on election night <a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2011/10/majority-ish.html"><span style="color: blue;">last fall</span></a>, the line between majority and minority isn’t as rigid as it’s often made out to be. When the margin is this thin, one case of appendicitis can tip the scales and change the course of history. <br />
<br />
On Friday, Dalton McGuinty proved how fluid that majority line is, by appointing veteran PC MLA Elizabeth Witmer as the chair of the WSIB, setting the stage for an “all in” by election in Kitchener-Waterloo, and hundreds of “battle of Waterloo” metaphors.<br />
<br />
It’s hard to see this move as anything other than a minority masterstroke by McGuinty. Witmer is respected and more than qualified for the position he is appointing her to, so there’s little risk of<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>backlash. It undermines Hudak’s leadership and, most importantly, opens up a winnable by election seat for the Liberals. Here’s the KW vote totals from October:<br />
<br />
Elizabeth Witmer (PC)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>43%<br />
Eric Davis (Lib)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>36%<br />
Isabel Cisterna (NDP)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>17%<br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>JD McGuire (Green)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>3%<br />
<br />
An MPP with over 20 years in office has to be worth at least 5 points at the ballot box, making Witmer's old seat very much a toss up. It’s a riding Andrew Telegdi won handily for the federal Liberals as recently as 2006, before razor-thin losses in 2008 and 2011.<br />
<br />
While there’s no doubt a temptation to strike early and call a snap by election, McGuinty has the cover of the NDP budget deal to get him through the spring session, so there’s no immediate rush. After all, it’s a student riding, so there’s something to be said for a fall by election, when thousands Waterloo and Laurier students notice a cool 30% reduction on their tuition bills.<br />
<br />
Regardless on timing, the election is going to be all about whether voters want a majority or a minority government. For the next few months, the eyes of the province will be on Kitchener-Waterloo. <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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calgarygrithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14496123174056722783noreply@blogger.com460tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6901354.post-8230741393153008642012-04-30T11:00:00.000-04:002012-04-30T11:00:05.287-04:00Did the left blow it in Alberta?Even though the end result was a Stephen Harper majority government, the NDP took a giant leap forward last May. In one election, the party may very well have taken the first step in killing off Canada's natural governing party, positioning the Dippers to one day form government. <br />
<br />
Although last Monday's Alberta election was a battle between two conservative parties, it’s not far flung to imagine how a similar scenario <i>could have</i> unfolded there. <br />
<br />
Let's close our eyes and go back in time to the spring of 2008 - Leona Lewis topped the billboard charts, and Ed Stelmach had just stumbled his way to a crushing 70-seat majority. In our scenario, perhaps the Liberals and NDP finally decide that 50 years of fighting each other for second place has been counterproductive. They talk to some disaffected PCs and non-partisans and decide to start a new progressive party from scratch – let’s call it the “Alberta Party” for lack of a more creative name. <br />
<br />
Since there’s general displeasure with Stelmach and no viable alternative on the right (remember, this is pre-Danielle), a few polls show this party is popular at the conceptual level. Maybe Dave Bronconnier finally has enough guts to jump to provincial politics. Or maybe the leadership goes to a little known Mount Royal professor by the name of Nenshi. <br />
<br />
In either event, this new party is seen as credible by voters, setting up a real three-way election battle. Maybe the Alberta Party follows the federal NDP's path and winds up as the official opposition to a Wildrose government. Maybe we get Alberta's first minority government. Hell, maybe the PCs choose Gary Mar or Ted Morton as their leader, and all those “Redford Liberals” find a home in the new Alberta Party, sweeping them into power.<br />
<br />
Yes, it’s all fantasy, but fantasyland is the only place the left ever comes close to power in Alberta so there's no harm in closing our eyes and imagining it.<br />
<br />
Now, let’s try another scenario, grounded slightly more in reality – what would have happened had the “strategic voters” been less strategic? Could progressives have made a breakthrough on Monday night?<br />
<br />
It’s important to remember that despite being the punchline of Canadian politics, the left in Alberta is not nonexistent. Since the Liberals' near-victory in 1993, the Liberals and NDP have combined for between 35% and 42% of the vote in each election, falling victim to the unforgiving nature of first past the post.<br />
<br />
The Liberals' did not bled to the Wildrose Party this election, but to Allison Redford. The final <a href="http://abacusdata.ca/2012/04/20/alberta-politics-final-election-poll-wr-41-pc-31-ndp-13-alp-12/">Abacus poll</a> showed around 10% of 2008 Liberal and NDP voters jumping to the Wildrose Party, but this is off-set by the 5% of past PC voters who planned to follow Raj Sherman to the grits. Toss in the departure of the Alberta Greens from the ballot, and it's not unreasonable to assume the Liberals and NDP<i> could have</i> held their 2008 vote, had things broken a little differently.<br />
<br />
So what if they had?<br />
<br />
To find out, I moved PC voters “back” to the Liberals, until the 2012 regional totals matched <a href="http://www.blogger.com/%28http://johnbsantos.com/tag/alberta-2008-election/%29">the 2008 numbers</a>. As an example, to get the Liberals back to 33% in Calgary, I needed to shift 11% of the total vote from the PCs to the Liberals in each riding. I recognize this is an inexact science but, once again, this is perfectly legitimate math for fantasyland.<br />
<br />
Here’s what that legislature would have looked like:<br />
<br />
WR 42<br />
PC 26<br />
Lib 14<br />
NDP 5<br />
<br />
That may not be an overly appealing outcome, but it does leave the Liberals and NDP as players in a minority government. Moreover, if you shift to 2004 levels of support, suddenly we get 23 Liberal MLAs and 13 for the PCs, with the Wildrose holding a slim majority. That's a scenario similar to last May, and one that could eventually lead to the Liberals squeezing the PCs out of existence.<br />
<br />
Again, we're playing with hypotheticals in the land of make believe, but it does show that the landscape isn't so completely barren for progressives that the <i>only </i>option left is assimilation by the PCs. Situations can change - even in Alberta.calgarygrithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14496123174056722783noreply@blogger.com16tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6901354.post-62127249766717155262012-04-27T10:00:00.000-04:002012-04-27T10:00:05.099-04:00Who saw it coming?The answer to that question is "not very many of us".<br />
<br />
More than 190 people entered the joint <a href="http://wwww.daveberta.ca/">daveberta.ca</a> and CalgaryGrit <a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/04/alberta-election-pool.html">Great Alberta Election Pool</a>, but like nearly all the <a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/04/margin-of-error.html">pollsters</a> and pundits, most entries were far away from the actual results on election night. Just 15% predicted a PC majority, and only 2 people had them winning at least 60 seats. The wisdom of the masses proved more accurate when it came to the bonus questions, successfully calling the defeat of Ted Morton and the controversial Wildrose candidates, while predicting Heather Klimchuk's victory in the hotly contested Edmonton Glenora riding. The median prediction of the Alberta Party's best riding showing was spot on the mark at 17%.<br />
<br />
Each entry received 87 points minus one point for each seat you are off per party, plus two points per correct bonus question (see the questions <a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/04/alberta-election-pool.html">here</a>).<br />
<br />
The two overall winners Marie and Tom earned 87 points each and will be contacted via email (if we're unable to contact them, the next placing entrant will be contacted and offered the prize). Prussian Prince, who answered 9 of the 10 bonus questions correct, will also receive one of the prize packs generously donated by <a href="http://vollman.blogspot.ca/">Robert Vollman</a> (who himself placed a very respectable 14th).<br />
<br />
Your top 10 are:<br />
<br />
T1. Marie (87 points)<br />
T1. Tom (87 points)<br />
3. Alexis MacMillian (83 points)<br />
T4. Blake Robert (81 points)<br />
T4. Kyle Olsen (81 points)<br />
6. Andrew F (75 points)<br />
T7. Ryan (73 points)<br />
T7. SaraEdmonton (73 points)<br />
T9. Gwen May (71 points)<br />
T9. Kristin Stolarz (71 points)<br />
<br />
Thank you to everyone who entered the pool. Any entrant who is curious how they placed can ask in the comments section or send an e-mail to calgarygrit@gmail.com. Rest assured, you likely did better than the contest organizers - I placed 114th, while Dave was 177th.calgarygrithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14496123174056722783noreply@blogger.com20tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6901354.post-78572613455144876382012-04-26T12:00:00.000-04:002012-04-26T12:05:39.695-04:00Margin of ErrorI don't think I've ever followed an election where the polls were as horribly off the mark as they were in Alberta.<br />
<br />
Last May, when the media jumped on the "pollsters blew it" bandwagon for not projecting a Tory majority, most companies were still within the margin of error on the final vote intent numbers. Even during the 2004 federal election, the case study in pollsters "missing" a late swing, there <a href="http://www.sfu.ca/~aheard/elections/polls-2004.html">wasn't a poll </a>the final week of the campaign that had the Liberals behind (even if seat projections did), and most only under-estimated Liberal support by 3-5 points. <br />
<br />
But last night? This wasn't just a case of shanking a field goal "wide right", but booting it in the complete <i>opposite direction</i> of the goal posts. Here's how the final polls stacked up with the results.<br />
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<br />
As most have commented, Forum's Sunday afternoon poll picked up part of the late swing but, even then, to go from a 2-point Wildrose lead and 10-point PC win is under 24 hours is <i>shocking</i>. It wasn't just a case of last second "strategic voting", since most polls in the final week correctly pegged Liberal and NDP support levels. <br />
<br />
So what went wrong? I can think of 6 possibilities:<br />
<br />
<br />
1. The polls made little effort to screen out the <b>43% of Albertans who didn't bother to vote</b> on election day. Just asking respondents if they were absolutely certain to vote would have been a good start, even if few followed through on those intentions. But there are other attitudes and demographics that can help predict intent (i.e. older people are more likely to vote), and because of a lack of transparency in how these questions were asked or weighted, we have no way of knowing what steps were taken to screen out unlikely voters.<br />
<br />
<br />
2. Building on the above point, the Big Blue Machine may have had a superior <b>get out the vote operation</b> than the relatively new Wildrose Party. I suspect this is part of the reason the federal Conservatives have "over performed" the polls on election day in recent years. Still, the best GotV operation will only bump you up a few percentage points, and it's not like the Wildrose Party was short of former Tory organizers, money, or volunteers.<br />
<br />
<br />
3. The PCs had <b>better candidates and more incumbents</b>. Even though local candidates rarely have a big impact on the results (see Quebec, 2011), it's possible Albertans "voted" for the party and leader they wanted when asked that question on the survey, then considered the local candidates when they saw the names on the ballot. Still, once again, I can't imagine this would translate to more than a point or two at the province-wide level.<br />
<br />
<br />
4. With voters growing increasingly disengaged and disinterested in the political process, it's possible many simply <b>made up their mind in the voting booth</b>. Since most polls only asked vote intent, there was little analysis in terms of strength of support, or where undecideds and soft voters might break before election day.<br />
<br />
<br />
5. The most popular theory is that there was a "<b>late swing</b>" back to the PCs. This is born out by the Sunday Forum poll but, even then, a 20-point swing in the margin over the course of 5 days, or a single day 12-point swing is almost unheard of in politics. I don't doubt there was a late shift, but from what I hear, the PC Party's internal numbers showed them in much better shape than any of the media polls, suggesting that Smith's lead was never as big as it was reported.<br />
<br />
<br />
6. So how could all those polls have been wrong? Well, if you look at that table above, you'll notice that Leger was one of the closest to the final mark, despite leaving field a week prior to the vote, before any "swing back" to the PCs was fully felt. The pollsters who overshot Wildrose support the most all used <strong>robo-diallers and online panels</strong>.<br />
<br />
Both of those methodologies have inherent problems. You often need to make 50 to 100 robo calls to find one sap willing to complete the survey. So we know the Wildrose Party was popular with shut-ins, but that's about it. Moreover, since robo calls can only ask 5 simple questions before respondents drop off, you rarely have the opportunity to collect enough demographic information to judge how representative the sample is.<br />
<br />
You can get those demographics using online panels, but while a national panel will have hundreds of thousands of Canadians on it, you're fishing from a much smaller pool when you get down to the Alberta level. Companies who don't frequently conduct political polling in Alberta might not have a good understanding of the biases inherent to the panel they're using, opening up the risk of skewed results. <br />
<br />
If you're looking for more background on some of the problems associated with robocalls and online polls, I'd suggest this excellent <a href="http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5336">letter by Darrel Bricker and John Wright</a>, or <a href="http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/938345--election-polls-are-fun-but-they-don-t-mean-a-thing-pollsters">this article</a> featuring blunt comments from Allan Greg and Andre Turcotte.<br />
<br />
The blame doesn't rest solely on the polling companies. The fact is robocalls and online polls are cheap to produce, and that's all the media is willing to pay for. The internal Tory polls used live callers, and asked more demographic and attitudinal questions than just vote intent - this no doubt let them verify the validity of their sample, and provided direction on what levers could cause the public to swing back to the Tory fold. There's something to be said about the old "you get what you pay for" adage, and most newspapers simply don't have the budget to invest in getting the job done right.<br />
<br />
<br />
We'll probably never know which of the above factors were actually in play. And hell, this being Alberta, it could just be part of the deal with the devil the Alberta PCs signed long ago that ensures PC victory after PC victory.calgarygrithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14496123174056722783noreply@blogger.com29tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6901354.post-90370443472588812242012-04-25T11:00:00.000-04:002012-04-25T11:00:04.478-04:00Where do we go from here?The end result of Monday's Alberta election may have been yet another crushing PC majority, but it's impossible to deny Alberta's political climate hasn't been permanently altered. With the Wildrose Party now her majesty's loyal opposition, each party faces unique challenges in adapting to this new political climate. Voters showed a willingness to change their vote this election, so any party failing to adapt risks extinction.<br />
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<b>The PCs</b><br />
<br />
Yes, they nearly blew it. Yes, they lost seats. But Monday was nothing short of complete triumph and total dominance by the PCs. In other words - <i>the usual</i>.<br />
<br />
While the PCs have never been shy about knifing successful leaders, most of the discontents have fled to the Wildrose Party, so Redford's leadership is likely safe...for now.<br />
<br />
The challenge facing Redford is that she leads a very different PC Party than the one she inherited less than a year ago. Ted Morton and much of the rural caucus went down in defeat, and the PCs won their mandate from a vastly different coalition of voters than in 2008. If the polls are to be believed (<i>ha ha ha</i>!), half of all 2008 PC voters saddled up with Smith this campaign, while half of all 2008 Liberal voters jumped to Redford. In the process, the PC "base" has shifted considerably - Redford's mandate was effectively given to her by liberals. If she governs like "your father's PC Party", there's no way those voters will buy in to any kind of "Stop Smith" movement in 2016.<br />
<br />
Of course, if she governs like a Liberal, she risks more bleeding to the Wildrose Party, who will now be staring her down in the legislature. In the past, the PCs have faced off against Liberal professors and doctors who cared more about policy than sound bytes. Now, they’ll be up against a well funded and media savvy libertarian. Gone are the days when elections could be won with a few simple chants of “NEP!” and by outspending their opponents by a factor of ten.<br />
<br />
The Wildrose represent a new kind of opponent. The PCs have never had to worry about their right flank before, so Redford will have her hands full keeping everyone inside the PC tent happy.<br />
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<b>Wildrose Party</b><br />
<br />
Once the tears have dried, my advice to the Wildrose Party is to take a deep breath, take a vacation, and look at the big picture. <br />
<br />
This party rose from the ground up, and won over 34% of the electorate in their first election with Danielle Smith. That's better than Peter Lougheed fared in his rookie campaign as PC leader, and it leaves the Wildrose well positioned to form government in 2016.<br />
<br />
To do that, Smith need look no further than the path to power taken by another Albertan, Stephen Harper. After coming close in 2004, Harper regrouped, developed a plan, and came back with a vengeance in 2006, running one of the best campaigns in Canadian political history. He had a moderate and focused platform, took social issues completely off the table, and avoided the “bozo eruptions” that had doomed him two years earlier.<br />
<br />
Smith’s challenge in the coming years is therefore to silence the extremists in her party, and present her caucus as a government in waiting. To do that, she will need to tone down the rhetoric in the legislature and moderate her positions - Smith's <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/wildrose-to-reconsider-conscience-rights-climate-change-policies/article2413350/">musings</a> on reconsidering the party's climate change, firewall, and conscience rights positions is already a step in the right direction. <br />
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<b>What’s Left of the Left</b><br />
<br />
For a party that lost over half of its vote Monday night, the Liberals have actually got to be feeling pretty good about the outcome. They held 5 seats when many were predicting a shut-out, and stayed (barely) ahead of the NDP both in terms of seats and popular vote.<br />
<br />
While the NDP would have liked to vault ahead of the Grits, they doubled their caucus to four seats, tying their best showing in 20 years. Brian Mason can stick around as leader if he wants to, but the NDP are usually pretty good about giving all their MLAs a turn as party leader so it wouldn’t surprise me if the torch is passed to Rachel Notley or David Eggen.<br />
<br />
Of course, these feel good results mask the reality that the status quo isn’t working. With the PCs shifting under Redford, there simply isn’t enough room for <i>both </i>these parties to be viable on the left of the spectrum. <br />
<br />
In an ideal world, the two would simply merge, take the Alberta Party’s name and Twitter handle, and recruit a charismatic leader from outside their current MLA ranks. The thing is, I just can’t see a situation where the membership of either the Liberals, NDP, or Alberta Party would agree to this type of arrangement. Such has always been the story among Alberta progressives, who value pride above power.<br />
<br />
That’s not to say it’s a hopeless situation. If Redford falters, the opportunity for someone on the left to squeeze out the PCs could present itself. The 30-40% of Albertans who always voted Liberal or NDP before this last election are still around, even if many parked their vote with Redford. If someone comes along able to capture their imagination, it wouldn't be unfathomable for them to move ahead of the PCs, the same way Jack Layton vaulted ahead of the Liberals federally last spring.<br />
<br />
I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for that to happen, but when you consider how volatile Alberta’s political climate has been of late, it would be foolish to assume there won’t be a surprise or two in the coming years.calgarygrithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14496123174056722783noreply@blogger.com21tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6901354.post-52630965308397170292012-04-24T12:52:00.000-04:002012-04-24T13:22:40.485-04:00"40 more years! 40 more years!"<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUOhCmt61wP_EarVG22wQejRDtmQK8vztrhNxGI42B59ymUCCA8sPXBZ_Rk_mA-iIMtg5LAvkgaQ3mid_xdbzqbHYmFflnyJl_nASF9snC4awKb0HetCNetVWOYp0nUHEOQ4UQAA/s1600/redford+wins.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUOhCmt61wP_EarVG22wQejRDtmQK8vztrhNxGI42B59ymUCCA8sPXBZ_Rk_mA-iIMtg5LAvkgaQ3mid_xdbzqbHYmFflnyJl_nASF9snC4awKb0HetCNetVWOYp0nUHEOQ4UQAA/s320/redford+wins.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />
How certain was I that Alison Redford would be dealt a humiliating blow last night? I had my "morning after" post time stamped to go up at 8 am, detailing Smith's victory using a colourfull "Wildrose chinook of change" analogy. <br />
<br />
It turns out that politics, like the weather, can be unpredictable. <br />
<br />
Not that a PC win in Alberta should ever be considered unpredictable. As I mused in my <a href="http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/04/24/dan-arnold-albertas-tory-empire-strikes-back/">National Post Full Comment article</a> this morning, dynasties do not crumble overnight. The decline of Rome lasted hundreds of years. The Oilers won a cup after dealing Gretzky. The Empire was good for two more movies, even after the Death Star blew up.<br />
<br />
And last night, the PC empire <a href="http://results.elections.ab.ca/wtResultsPGE.htm">struck back in full force</a>:<br />
<br />
PC: 61 seats (44%)<br />
Wildrose: 17 (34%)<br />
Liberal: 5 (10%)<br />
NDP: 4 (10%)<br />
<br />
Yes, the PCs who were down by 7-10 points in every poll days before the vote pulled out a crushing 10-point victory.<br />
<br />
The comparison I would draw is to the 2004 federal election, when the dying Liberal dynasty succeeded in scaring voters into giving them one last chance. With that in mind, here's <a href="http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/04/24/dan-arnold-albertas-tory-empire-strikes-back/">my cautionary warning</a> to PC supporters who might have dreams of another 40 years in power:<br />
<br />
<blockquote><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The situation in this election is eerily similar to the 2004 federal campaign, when 2012 Wildrose campaign manager Tom Flanagan — then working for the federal Conservatives – tried to lead an upstart right wing band of misfits to victory against the natural governing party. In both instances, the incumbent dynasties had knifed successful leaders, and had unrealistic expectations for their new leaders. Just as anonymous PC strategists lamented about winning “too many seats” in February, in 2004 Liberal strategists mused about 200 seats for Paul Martin (which in fairness, Martin got – it just took him two elections to do it).</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In both instances, the incumbent badly mismanaged a scandal (Adscam for Paul, the “no meet committee” for Redford), and threw caution to the wind by calling an election in the midst of it. In both instances, Flanagan’s great right hope rose in the polls, pulled into the lead, won the debate…and then blew it in the bottom of the 9th. Both times voters stared change in the face, and decided they weren’t ready for it – yet.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">We all know how things turned out federally, and therein lies the cautionary tale for all the players in Alberta. The Wildrose Party now has a base of 35% of the Alberta electorate. They have an impressive, albeit inexperienced, leader in Danielle Smith who now has four years to refine her skills and weed out the thornier candidates from her party’s ranks. If Stephen Harper could make the federal Conservatives look “non-scary”, then surely the photogenic and charismatic Smith can pull off the same trick in Alberta.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The challenge facing the PCs is now the same one that faced Martin in 2004 – they won on a campaign of fear, and won thanks to borrowed votes from the left. It was a brilliant play for which Alberta’s political mastermind Stephen Carter deserves full credit, but it leaves the PCs governing on a shaky foundation. Given the Alberta Liberal Party has received between 25% to 30% of the vote in every election since their near-victory in 1993, some quick napkin math suggests that as much as one-third of the PC vote this campaign came from former Liberal supporters. These voters were willing to look past the decades of the PCs doing everything in government they accused the Wildrose of wanting to do, but they are unlikely to be forgiving if Redford veers to the right again. To keep these voters in the PC tent will require competent, centrist government from Redford — but also a still-scary Wildrose Party come 2016, and the lack of a credible alternative on the left.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I wouldn’t discount that possibility, but holding borrowed votes on the left and preventing further bleeding to the right is a difficult balancing act for any government. While Redford was the big winner Monday, when the book is eventually written on the PC empire, its latest victory could still prove to be the beginning of the end.</span></blockquote>calgarygrithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14496123174056722783noreply@blogger.com32tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6901354.post-65064209412622439202012-04-23T20:00:00.000-04:002012-04-24T00:38:36.738-04:00Alberta Votes Live Blog<b>6 pm</b> (<i>mountain time!</i>): The much anticipated downtown Toronto Alberta election night party is ready to roll: the Alberta flag has been proudly hung, the Big Rock beers have been opened, and I'm sportin' a Supportin' Morton button. Polls are still open for another two hours, but the room is already full with a dozen ex-Albertans - and two Ontarians curious to see who will be signing their next equalization cheque.<br />
<br />
<b>7:20 pm</b>: Playing "<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZFoJGa439j4">Ted Morton is the man</a>" and "<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmMfXv9R7t0">sing a song for Jim</a>" to get everyone pumped up. One guest - "<i>ahhh, so that's how Ed Stelmach became Premier</i>".<br />
<br />
<b>8:10 pm</b>: In most Alberta elections, we'd be calling it right about now.<br />
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<b>8:14 pm</b>: Watching the <a href="http://www.globaltvcalgary.com/Pages/Story.aspx?id=6442626975">Global TV live stream online</a> - they have a CNN-style touch screen! Sadly, due to James Moore's budget cuts, CBC will be announcing results via abacus tonight. <br />
<br />
<b>8:42 pm</b>: Current numbers have the PCs leading in 45, Wildrose leading in 22, NDP in 2, Liberals in 1. maybe this is the <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/story/2012/04/23/montreal-coderre-wildrose-unity.html">Dennis Coderre</a> bounce.<br />
<br />
<b>8:50 pm</b>: PCs now lead 55-21. And that's the sound of pundits everywhere frantically re-writing their articles before deadline.<br />
<br />
<b>9:01 pm</b>:And they call it for the PCs. Absolutely shocking. Tom Flanagan blows it in the bottom of the 9th again. Conversation at our Toronto election party:<br />
<br />
"I thought this was supposed to be a close election"<br />
"By Alberta standards, this IS a close election"<br />
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<b>9:40 pm</b>: Guess we need to give Alberta Liberals an assist on this one. The ALP vote is down 15-20 points from their usual levels, far and away the margin of victory.<br />
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<b>10:37 pm</b>: And the traditional chant goes up at PC headquarters: "<i>40 more years! 40 more years!</i>". That's it for tonight all - tomorrow, I'll try to make some sense of one of the most shocking election nights in a long time.calgarygrithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14496123174056722783noreply@blogger.com22tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6901354.post-58111035746480234582012-04-23T14:53:00.000-04:002012-04-23T14:53:00.611-04:00For those sick of blog posts on Alberta politics...Bev Oda paid $16 for a glass of <a href="http://www.montrealgazette.com/travel/under+fire+orange+juice+pays+stay+London+swanky+Savoy+hotel/6503869/story.html">orange juice</a>. In fairness, it was a really good glass of orange juice.calgarygrithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14496123174056722783noreply@blogger.com19tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6901354.post-23881258740036460192012-04-23T09:00:00.000-04:002012-04-23T09:16:17.410-04:00Alberta Votes Today<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuz6jG2VCduOf_29nB__pzf41-EuV_B8dRiKmNm69_CpKbuC55ZX-T4o9QkiZC8lCHCGbUWTblCBLrbc4AQ-i6B0y-xV2MTudf_wcb8pUF0jyUfPGOnn059qXYTrz84LJihVwIlg/s1600/PC+Wildrose+rotten.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="258" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuz6jG2VCduOf_29nB__pzf41-EuV_B8dRiKmNm69_CpKbuC55ZX-T4o9QkiZC8lCHCGbUWTblCBLrbc4AQ-i6B0y-xV2MTudf_wcb8pUF0jyUfPGOnn059qXYTrz84LJihVwIlg/s400/PC+Wildrose+rotten.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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After the <strike>most</strike> only exciting election in nearly twenty years, Albertans head to the polls today, with the fate of the 41 year old Tory government hanging in the balance.<br />
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The polls all show Danielle Smith and her lovable band of <strike>bigots</strike> <strike>homophobes</strike> <strike>racists</strike> misfits up by between <strike>7 and 10 points</strike> <a href="http://threehundredeight.blogspot.ca/2012/04/forum-shows-closing-gap-in-last-hours.html">2</a> and 10 points. It's hard to say what that translates to in terms of seats, but the mean prediction of the 150 entries in the <a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/04/alberta-election-pool.html">Great Alberta Election pool</a> is: WR 42, PC 37, NDP 4, Lib 3, AP 1. Despite the poll numbers, over a third of all pool respondents predict a PC victory, so <i>someone's</i> in for a surprise tonight - one way or the other.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8aG8fGwcSCDCsOB7FrpgPrzZRjkeIk4h66fz1OH8TyKzJFVyoTNpvtury7oeBE20VGnfxn8TyykFal-3degkVmuS3677BUD0p8rJgk_JFjU0ZaR3W5uprXd6USXkYxP2y6WF6iA/s1600/Vote+Intent+-+Final.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8aG8fGwcSCDCsOB7FrpgPrzZRjkeIk4h66fz1OH8TyKzJFVyoTNpvtury7oeBE20VGnfxn8TyykFal-3degkVmuS3677BUD0p8rJgk_JFjU0ZaR3W5uprXd6USXkYxP2y6WF6iA/s400/Vote+Intent+-+Final.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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I'll be watching the results as they roll in with a dozen ex-pat Albertans. There will be Big Rock and there will be live blogging - at least until I blow <strike><a href="http://blogs.calgaryherald.com/2012/03/07/tories-first-attack-ad-ends-long-era-of-phoney-civility/">.05</a></strike> .08 and have my laptop taken away.<br />
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Until then, here's a recap of the past four weeks:<br />
<br />
<a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/04/alberta-votes-day-28-what-to-expect.html">Day 28: What to expect tomorrow</a><br />
<a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/04/how-id-vote.html">How I'd Vote</a><br />
<a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/04/alberta-votes-day-26-problem-solved.html">Day 26: Problem Solved</a><br />
<a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/04/alberta-election-pool.html">Election Pool</a><br />
<a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/04/dear-alberta-pcs-welcome-to-life-as.html">Dear Alberta PCs: Welcome to life as a Liberal</a><br />
<a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/04/alberta-votes-day-25-fuck-it-im-voting.html">Day 25: "Fuck it, I'm voting PC"</a><br />
<a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/04/alberta-votes-day-24-sleeping.html">Day 24: Sleeping arrangements at minority motel</a><br />
<a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/04/there-goes-another-1000-good-behaviour.html">There goes another $1,000 "good behaviour" bond</a><br />
<a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/04/alberta-votes-day-23-born-this-way.html">Day 23: Born this way</a><br />
<a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/04/alberta-votes-day-22-closing-arguments.html">Day 22: Closing arguments</a><br />
<a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/04/alberta-votes-day-20-notes-from-week-3.html">Day 20: Notes from Week 3</a><br />
<a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/04/alberta-votes-day-19-morning-after.html">Day 19: The morning after [the debate]</a><br />
<a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/04/alberta-debate-live-blog.html">Debate live blog</a><br />
<a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/04/alberta-votes-day-18-debate-night-in.html">Day 18: Debate night in Edmonton</a><br />
<a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/04/alberta-votes-day-17-conservatives.html">Day 17: Conservatives attack conservatives for being conservative</a><br />
<a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/04/alberta-votes-day-15-paging-stockwell.html">Day 15: Paging Stockwell Smith</a><br />
<a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/04/alberta-votes-day-14-party-of-one.html">Day 14: Party of One</a><br />
<a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/04/alberta-votes-day-12-who-says-40-year.html">Day 12: Who says a 40 year old government can't come up with new ideas?</a><br />
<a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/04/alberta-votes-day-11-wild-wave-sweeps.html">Day 11: A wild wave sweeps across Alberta</a><br />
<a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/04/alberta-votes-day-9-ralphbucks-returns.html">Day 9: Ralphbucks returns</a><br />
<a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/04/alberta-votes-day-8-losing-control-of.html">Day 8: Losing control of the agenda</a><br />
<a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/03/alberta-votes-day-5-this-time-when-we.html">Day 5: This time when we say "it's time", it's actually time</a><br />
<a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/03/alberta-votes-day-4-danielle-smith.html">Day 4: Danielle Smith comes out as the anti-change candidate</a><br />
<a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/03/alberta-votes-day-3-time-to-bring-back.html">Day 3: Time to bring back Ed?</a><br />
<a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/03/alberta-votes-day-2-polls-and.html">Day 2: Polls and prostitutes</a><br />
<a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/03/alberta-votes.html">Alberta Votes Preview</a><br />
<a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/03/redford-in-dire-straits-over-money-for.html">Redford in Dire Straits over "Money for Nothing" controversy</a>calgarygrithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14496123174056722783noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6901354.post-38439908129721430702012-04-22T11:00:00.000-04:002012-04-22T11:00:10.744-04:00Alberta Votes Day 28: What to expect tomorrowI've already written about the <a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/04/alberta-votes-day-24-sleeping.html">difficulties of using seat projection models</a> due to the unique circumstances of this Alberta election. So rather than crunch the numbers, I thought it might prove more useful to conduct a "wisdom of the masses" exercise, by looking at the predictions being made in the <a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/04/alberta-election-pool.html">Great Alberta Election pool.</a> Here's what the nearly 100 politicos who have entered so far are expecting tomorrow:<br />
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<b>Seat Totals</b><br />
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The above graph shows the median prediction for each party, with the bars representing the first-to-third quartile range - that is, where the "middle half" of all entries fall. Looking strictly at the means, we get a "best guess" of 42 Wildrose seats, 37 PC seats, 4 NDP seats, 3 Liberal seats, and 1 for the Alberta Party. That's a slightly narrower gap than my prediction of WR 44, PC 35, NDP 4, Lib 4, AP 0 - and it suggests there's some skepticism out there about Smith's ability to seal the deal. After all, three-in-ten respondents still predict a PC victory and only a minority (41%) expect Smith to win a majority.<br />
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<b>Races to Watch</b><br />
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Nine-in-ten expect Redford to hold her seat, but respondents are less certain about Raj Sherman (43%) and Ted Morton's (19%) chances. It's a little counter intuitive for Morton to get drowned in the Wildrose wave given he'd be right at home in the party, but I have a hard time seeing <i>any</i> PCs left standing in southern rural Alberta.<br />
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As for the Wildrose Party's more colourful candidates, only 36% expect Allan Hunsperger (of "gays burn in hell" fame) or Ron Leech (of "being white is an advantage" fame) to be elected Monday. I'd be shocked if Hunsperger won, but Leech took 26% of the vote running as an independent last election - add in the Wildrose boost, and he seems like the odds on favourite to find his way to Edmonton, perhaps as Danielle Smith's Multiculturalism Minister*.<br />
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Edmonton Glenora figures to be one of the most hotly contested seats - the PCs beat the Liberals by 100 votes last time, but both the NDP and Alberta Party are running strong candidates and have targeted the riding. And with the Wildrose's Edmonton poll numbers, even they could pull it out on the vote split. This unpredictability is born out in the pool, where 56% expect the PCs to hold the riding, 21% (myself included) see it as an NDP pick-up, 11% pick the Alberta Party, 10% pick the Liberals, and 2% pick the Wildrose.<br />
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<b>The Alberta Party</b><br />
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This being their first election, it's difficult to know what to expect from the Alberta Party. Only one-in-three predict they'll win a seat, and the mean guess on their best riding vote is 15-20%. That's the <i>most</i> I'd expect them to get anywhere, but many pool entries had them winning multiple seats, and up to 40 or 50 percent of the vote in some ridings. <b> </b><br />
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<b>The Senate</b><br />
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The Wildrose Party is predicted to pick up 1.7 of the 3 Senate seats. Personally, I expect a clean sweep - given the low level attention paid to the Senate election, I expect most will vote party lines.<br />
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<b>The Morning After</b><br />
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Close to half (44%) expect Liberal leader Raj Sherman to announce his resignation within 48 hours of the vote - perhaps not surprising since most expect Sherman to lose his seat and just 18% think the Liberals will win more votes than the NDP.<br />
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One-in-three expect Redford to resign after the election - presumably not the same people voting for her as "the most progressive option". Personally, I'd be surprised if any of the four opposition leaders are around come next election - hell, I'd be surprised if all four opposition parties still exist come the next election. But my best guess is that they'll all take a bit of time before coming to a decision...or being forced into one.<br />
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<i>*That's obviously a joke. We all know Danielle Smith won't name a Multiculturalism Minister.</i>calgarygrithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14496123174056722783noreply@blogger.com12tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6901354.post-37172820474656455072012-04-20T11:00:00.000-04:002012-04-20T11:00:00.442-04:00How I'd VoteFar be it for me to tell anyone in Alberta how to vote. I don't live in the province anymore, and my biases are right there for you to see in this website url. I'm a Liberal, and voting Liberal is almost a reflex by this point.<br />
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At the same time, I fully expect my old riding to be a hotly contested PC-Wildrose showdown at the Southcentre Mall. If the Wildrose Party has a list of targeted ridings, I suspect mine is somewhere between 40th to 50th on the list, so it could very well be the one that swings the balance or gives Danielle Smith her majority. Liberals are pragmatic creatures by nature, so I can't ignore the wild elephant in the room.<br />
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If the vote had been held a month ago, this post might actually have ended up sounding like a quasi-Wildrose endorsement. For reasons I'll get to shortly, Alberta desperately needs a change of government, and I viewed the Wildrosers as nothing more than a slightly less experienced and slightly less corrupt version of the PCs. So why not?After all, Danielle Smith is a very impressive politician - the "Alberta Sarah Palin" meme is completely unfair to this woman who is articulate, thoughtful, and intelligent.<br />
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However, any secret longing for a Wildrose victory has quickly dissipated over the course of this campaign. Rather than presenting a creative long term plan for Alberta, Smith has attacked Redford for <a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/03/alberta-votes-day-4-danielle-smith.html">not loving Alberta</a>, resorted to <a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/04/alberta-votes-day-9-ralphbucks-returns.html">vote-buying gimmicks</a>, and <a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/04/alberta-votes-day-9-ralphbucks-returns.html">abandoned</a> the notion of even <em>pretending</em> her math ads up. More troubling is her refusal to repudiate overtly <a href="http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2012/04/15/wildrose-candidate-allan-hunsperger-on-gays-you-will-suffer-the-rest-of-eternity-in-the-lake-of-fire-hell/">homophobic</a> and <a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/04/there-goes-another-1000-good-behaviour.html">racist</a> comments from her candidates. That says all I need to know about <a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/04/alberta-votes-day-23-born-this-way.html">Danielle Smith's values</a> and her ability to represent <i>all</i> Albertans.<br />
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So I guess that means I'm in the "Liberals for Redford" camp, eh? I will say that Alison Redford is likely the closest thing to a Liberal Premier Alberta will ever get, but that's simply not enough. While we've all been quick to criticize the <em>words</em> of Smith's candidates, the <em>actions</em> of the PCs have been equally unsettling. As Paula Simmons <a href="http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2012/04/17/alberta-election-smith-and-redford-and-pots-and-kettles/">brilliantly recounted</a> this week, the PCs legislated against gay marriage and spent a decade refusing to add protection for gay Albertans to Alberta’s human rights legislation, despite a Supreme Court of Canada ruling requiring them to do so. They <a href="http://www.theinterim.com/issues/marriage-family/alberta-private-member%E2%80%99s-bill-protecting-conscience-is-killed/">quietly supported </a>Ted Morton's private members bill on <a href="http://daveberta.blogspot.ca/2006/08/ted-mortons-bill-208-pwned.html">conscience rights</a>, and loudly passed <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2009/06/02/alberta-human-rights-school-gay-education-law.html">Bill 44</a> which "protected" children from ever having to hear about homosexuality in school. <br />
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Of course, the argument you hear is that was the past and this is <a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/04/alberta-votes-day-20-notes-from-week-3.html">not your father's PC Party</a>. Even though Alison Redford was Justice Minister when Bill 44 came into law, she is rightly seen as being "red" in more than just name. The thing is, if we're going to judge Danielle Smith by the company she keeps, surely we need to apply the same rule to Redford. <a href="http://blogs.calgaryherald.com/2012/04/15/flashback-ted-morton-argues-homosexual-marriage-goes-against-the-very-fabric-of-society/">Ted Morton</a> is on record supporting pretty much everything Redford has accused the Wildrose of <em>secretly</em> plotting, and he's not just some fringe candidate, but is Redford's Minister of Energy. Despite <a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/04/alberta-votes-day-17-conservatives.html">attacking</a> Danielle Smith for leading a party of "old white men", Redford's Cabinet is 85% male and 95% white. <br />
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The PCs have been drifting aimlessly for years, <a href="http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/04/19/national-post-editorial-board-endorses-danielle-smith-and-the-wildrose-in-the-alberta-election/">spending more than any other government in Canada</a> <a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/02/this-week-in-alberta-redfords-first.html">without any semblance of a long term plan</a>. Given Alberta's wealth, there's no reason the province shouldn't have the best hospitals, schools, and infrastructure in the world. Instead, we have <a href="http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/educ50f-eng.htm">high tuition rates</a>, <a href="http://www.fraserinstitute.org/publicationdisplay.aspx?id=2147484002">long wait times</a>, an <a href="http://www.calgaryherald.com/Alberta+doctors+frustrated+health+care+inquiry+tackle+bullying/6231180/story.html">inquiry into the Health Care system</a>, and accusations of <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/story/2012/02/22/edmonton-health-quality-council-report.html">doctor bullying</a>. By Redford's <a href="http://blogs.calgaryherald.com/2012/04/15/kleins-wife-friends-angry-at-pc-criticism-of-sick-ex-premier/">own admission</a>, Ralph Klein's cuts hurt Albertans and created a massive infrastructure backlog.<br />
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Sure, much of this is ancient history, but if you can't judge a 41 year old government on its record, what can you judge them on?<br />
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Ever since Redford's surprise ascension to the throne, the PCs have looked every bit like an arrogant empire, just waiting to get swept aside. In February, they were worried they'd win <a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/04/alberta-votes-day-26-problem-solved.html">too many seats</a>. We've already seen broken promises from Redford on a <a href="http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/alberta/Health+inquiry+cover+doctor+intimidation+despite+Redford+promise+video/6223905/story.html">judicial Health Care inquiry</a> and <a href="http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/Tories+fail+promise+release+list+campaign+donors/6481390/story.html">campaign donor disclosure</a>. This lack of transparency shouldn't be surprising, given an <a href="http://www.law-democracy.org/?p=1875">access to information study</a> recently ranked Alberta the least transparent province in Canada, and placed it behind beacons of democracy Niger and Angola internationally.<br />
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Then there's the saga of the <a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/03/redford-in-dire-straits-over-money-for.html">money for nothing committee</a>. When it surfaced that MLAs were receiving $1,000 a month to sit on a committee which hadn't met in 4 years, Redford accused opposition members who returned the cash of "grandstanding"...then ordered PC MLAs to return 12% of their pay after a poll showed the public up in arms. One week into the election campaign, she <em>finally</em> ordered them to pay back the full amount, though there's no indication they will. The incident shouldn't instill voters with confidence the PCs have turned over a new leaf.<br />
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I'd be willing to look beyond all this if the PCs had offered a compelling plan in their budget or platform, but those documents ran away from doing anything even remotely bold - and why would they, when PC strategists were musing about winning 70+ seats a few months ago? The best argument for voting PC this campaign has been that "<a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/04/alberta-votes-day-25-fuck-it-im-voting.html">the Wildrose Party is worse</a>", but when the Wildrose Party is nothing more than a collection of disgruntled Progressive Conservatives, that's not enough for me. <br />
<br />
So if I had a vote, it would be going to the <a href="http://www.albertaliberal.com/index.php">Liberals</a> - not out of a sense of loyalty, but because they're the only party with a "think big" <a href="http://www.albertaliberal.com/platform.php">platform</a>. They offer a compelling democratic reform platform, and have used something more than wishful thinking to fund their more expensive promises, such as free tuition and Health Care investments. <br />
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That said, Brian Mason strikes me as a genuine and principled politician, so if <a href="http://albertandp.ca/">orange</a> is your flavour, I wouldn't spend a lot of time trying to change your mind. Even the upstart <a href="http://www.albertaparty.ca/">Alberta Party</a> strikes the right tone, and it's possible that movement will eventually morph into a credible progressive alternative to the Wildrose and PC parties.<br />
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In any event, there are plenty of options, so there's no excuse for another 41% turnout rate. This Monday, be sure to get out and vote.calgarygrithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14496123174056722783noreply@blogger.com14tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6901354.post-18455794866327278132012-04-20T09:17:00.000-04:002012-04-20T09:17:54.270-04:00Alberta Votes Day 26: Problem SolvedA blast from the past. Graham Thompson's February 14th article for your <a href="http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/Tories+favour+Vote+against+them/6148486/story.html">reading enjoyment</a>:<br />
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<blockquote><h3>Do Tories a favour: Vote against them</h3><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Alberta Conservatives are beginning to worry about the number of seats they'll win in the upcoming provincial election.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Not because they'll get too few, but because they'll get too many.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If recent public opinion polls prove prescient, the Alberta Conservatives could win somewhere between 70 and 80 seats - that's out of 87 seats total. One poll even suggests they could win 82 seats, the most for any government in Alberta history.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">After the election, there could be so many Conservative MLAs they'll need a double-decker bus to take them to their next caucus retreat at the Jasper Park Lodge.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Tories of course want to win as many seats as possible but there is a pragmatic downside to a huge majority that is causing some government officials to worry. They won't know what to do with so many MLAs. Really.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">About 20 will become cabinet ministers and maybe half a dozen could become parliamentary secretaries. One will become legislative Speaker and others will be appointed to various executive committees. But there could be several dozen with no real work to do other than getting themselves into trouble. In politics, idle backbenchers are the devil's playthings.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Then there's the logistical problem of dealing with seven dozen outsized egos, many of them bruised after being shut out of cabinet.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I am not being facetious. When you talk to Conservative government officials about a gigantic electoral victory for the Conservatives, they roll their eyes and shake their heads and mutter about the headache of herding so many cats. They are not being facetious, either. They want a huge victory but they also see the cloud in this silver lining.</span></blockquote>calgarygrithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14496123174056722783noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6901354.post-25121436011826423822012-04-19T18:30:00.000-04:002012-04-19T18:30:00.331-04:00Alberta Election PoolOn Monday, Albertans will go to the polls in what is already being dubbed a "historic" election. The outcome is uncertain, so why not gaze into your crystal ball and enter the Daveberta and CalgaryGrit election pool.<br />
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It's simple enough - predict the seat totals for each party and answer 10 bonus questions. Everyone gets 87 points minus one point for each seat you're off per party, plus two points per correct bonus question.<br />
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<a href="http://vollman.blogspot.ca/">Robert Vollman</a> has generously donated the following political book prize packs (<i>shipping extra, unless we can arrange a pick-up in Calgary or Toronto</i>):<br />
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1. The Bill of Rights package: One Canada (Diefenbaker), Memoirs (Trudeau)<br />
2. The Preston Manning package: Thinking Big, The New Canada and Roots of Reform<br />
3. The Jean Chretien package: The Friendly Dictatorship, Straight From the Heart <br />
4. The Federalists package: A Nation Too Good to Lose (Joe Clark), Fighting for Canada (Diane Francis)<br />
5. The Obscure Package: The Betrayal of Canada (Mel Hurtig), Navigating a New World (Lloyd Axworthy)<br />
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First choice goes to the overall winner, with the winners of the seat prediction portion and the bonus question portion also winning a book pack. So even if you're an Ontarian like myself with no clue what a "Ted Morton" is, never mind if he'll win his seat, you can skip the bonus questions and still be eligible for the prizes, based on a shot-in-dark seat prediction.<br />
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Contest will close as soon as the polls open Monday. Please paste your entry in the comments here or at <a href="http://www.daveberta.ca/">daveberta</a>, or e-mail your picks in to calgarygrit@gmail.com.<br />
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<b><u>Election Results Questions</u></b><br />
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Number of MLAs elected by each party (<i>total: 87 MLAs</i>) <br />
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<strong>Alberta Party</strong>: <br />
<strong>Liberal</strong>: <br />
<strong>NDP</strong>: <br />
<strong>PC</strong>: <br />
<strong>Wildrose</strong>: <br />
<strong>Other</strong>: <br />
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<b><u>Bonus Question</u></b><br />
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<strong>1. The constituency where the PC candidate will earn their highest percentage of the popular vote</strong>: <br />
<i>(2008 results <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta_general_election,_2008#Nominated_candidates">here</a>; candidate list <a href="http://daveberta.ca/alberta-election/">here</a>; top ridings last time: Vermilion-Lloydminster (Lloyd Snelgrove - not running), Battle River-Wainwright (Doug Griffiths), Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville (Ed Stelmach - not running), Bonnyville-Cold Lake (Genia Leskiw), Strathmore-Brooks (Arno Doerksen), Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills (Ray Danyluk))</i><br />
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<strong>2. Will PC MLA Ted Morton be re-elected in Chestermere-Rockyview?</strong><br />
<i>(Morton won with 57% of the vote last time, but 308.com <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvidXY_y0P0d1V8DgfoCvW7VSYsX4oktu43KMRr1qVvej6yGZ2aGg52nobJqLxNnoTfrKVFHg0Rf7Vm7z-t0bQTd8zUAF4vUjl6WRcCFXV9mtRCPX1XYtk0C2e-Dgou2ViQg2suA/s1600/Ridings.PNG">projects</a> 22-point Wildrose win)</i><br />
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<strong>3. Will Premier Alison Redford be re-elected in Calgary-Elbow?</strong><br />
<i>(Redford beat the Liberals by 3% last election, and 308.com <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvidXY_y0P0d1V8DgfoCvW7VSYsX4oktu43KMRr1qVvej6yGZ2aGg52nobJqLxNnoTfrKVFHg0Rf7Vm7z-t0bQTd8zUAF4vUjl6WRcCFXV9mtRCPX1XYtk0C2e-Dgou2ViQg2suA/s1600/Ridings.PNG">projects</a> her to beat the Wildrose by 3%)</i><br />
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<strong>4. Will Liberal Party leader Raj Sherman be re-elected in Edmonton-Meadowlark?</strong><br />
<i>(As a PC, Sherman defeated the Liberals 54% to 30% in 2008)</i><br />
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<strong>5. What will the highest vote percentage for the Alberta Party be in a riding?</strong> (points if you're within +/- 5%)<br />
<i>(Polls show them under 5% province-wide, but they've targeted a pair of Edmonton constituencies, including the one in Q7)</i><br />
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<strong>6. Will either Allan Hunsperger ("gays burn in hell") or Ron Leech ("being white is an advantage") win their seat?</strong><br />
<i>(308.com projects Hunsberger to lose, but has Leech in a virtual dead heat)</i><br />
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<strong>7. Who will be elected in Edmonton-Glenora?</strong><br />
<i>(Candidates: Sue Huff AP, Bruce Miller Lib, Ray Martin NDP, Heather Klimchuk PC, Don Koziak WR; 2008 vote: PC 40%, Lib 39%, NDP 15%, WR 2%)</i><br />
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<strong>8. Which party leaders will announce plans to resign within 48 hours of the vote?</strong><br />
<i>(Alison Redford PC, Danielle Smith WR, Raj Sherman Lib, Brian Mason NDP, Glenn Taylor AP)</i><br />
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<strong>9. How many of the 3 senate positions will the Wildrose Party win?</strong><br />
<i>(They're running 3 candidates, the PCs are running 3 candidates, the Greens have 1 candidate, and there are 6 independents; <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta_Senate_nominee_election,_2012">full list here</a>)</i><br />
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<strong>10. Who will get more votes - Libs or NDP?</strong><br />
<i>(current polls have them effectively tied)</i>calgarygrithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14496123174056722783noreply@blogger.com29tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6901354.post-20801390851197269792012-04-19T11:00:00.000-04:002012-04-19T11:00:01.931-04:00Dear Alberta PCs: Welcome to life as a LiberalDear Progressive Conservatives,<br /><br />First off, congrats on the 40 years in power. It was a good run and, speaking on behalf of the Alberta Liberal Party, I'd like to think we played a small role in making it possible.<br /><br />But the <a href="http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/Alberta+Election+2012+Smith+takes+reins+front+runner+poll+reveals/6477884/story.html">latest polls</a> show Danielle Smith and her band of lovable homophobes poised for power - <a href="http://abacusdata.ca/2012/04/12/alberta-politics-wildrose-leads-pcs-by-17/">some polls</a> even have PC support dipping below 30%, into "Liberal territory". It looks like the party's over, and if Alberta's history is any indication, once you lose power, you never get it back.<br /><br />So as someone who spent many years fighting for the Alberta Liberal Party, I thought I'd offer a few tips to help facilitate your transition to irrelevance.<br /><br /><br /><strong>1. Blame the Media</strong>: I can't tell you how many times I've heard Liberals complain that "<em>we would have won, if only the media had covered our education platform</em>". Yes, it's not in any way productive to trash the media, but it's something you can bond over with other activists, and it's healthier than blaming voters.<br /><br />You've already got a good start on this - I've seen lots of tweets from PC members complaining about Danielle Smith's free ride this campaign. One Facebook post dismissed a ThinkHQ poll as "Wildrose propaganda", even though the company is run by Dave Bronconnier's former chief of staff.<br /><br /><br /><strong>2. Blame the electoral map</strong>: Repeat after me - "<em>why does rural Alberta get so many seats</em>?". Seriously, whose idea was that?<br /><br /><br /><strong>3. Forget the Past:</strong> I know there will be a temptation to look back longingly at the glory years. Maybe you'll even try to convince a nephew of Ed Stelmach's to run for leader one day, to try to reclaim the magic of the 70-seat Stelmachian era. But I've told enough <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Cameron_Rutherford">Alexander Rutherford</a> stories on the door steps to know voters don't give a damn about the past.<br /><br /><br /><strong>4. Accept the Messiah</strong>: Back in 2001, a drunk Ralph Klein berated the homeless in Calgary, and the voters shrugged. He threw a book at a 12 year old girl, berated AISH recipients, got busted plagiarizing an essay, and told ranchers to "shoot, shovel, and shut up" next time they saw a case of mad cow disease - each time, voters shrugged. It used to <a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2007/02/king-ralph.html">drive me crazy</a>, but after a decade, I came to accept it.<br /><br />The sooner you accept that Danielle Smith is infallible, the less likely you'll be to develop high blood pressure.<br /><br /><br /><strong>5. Learn to Love Opposition</strong>: Rejoice! The days of having to defend <a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/03/redford-in-dire-straits-over-money-for.html">no-meet committees</a>, <a href="http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/Gary+would+under+Wildrose+government/6455122/story.html">controversial appointments</a>, and <a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2007/10/billion-dollar-boondoggle.html">spending boondoggles</a> are over. I know you found it awkward explaining why <a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2007/10/luau.html">Ron Stevens</a> billed taxpayers for a 3-day "stopover" in Hawaii, as part of his fact finding trip to Australia to "study" their gambling system. Luckily, the days of PCs doing <em>anything</em> on the government dime are gone.<br /><br />Yes, there will still be MLAs to <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/story/2009/06/22/edmonton-elniski-speech.html">embarrass</a> you. But the good news is there will be far, <em>far </em>fewer of them.<br /><br />On the other side, it's a lot more fun to criticize than to be criticized. You don't think vegans in the Annex don't secretly love complaining about Rob Ford? Righteous indignation is a drink that can make you forget about landslide election defeats, and given Danielle's Smith platform and caucus, she will be serving you up the ingredients for this drink every day.<br /><br /><br /><strong>6. Become an Idealist:</strong> I know a lot of PC members are only members because the PCs are in power. They won't be members for long.<br /><br />Once they're gone, you'll have the freedom to advocate for policies you believe in. You think the Alberta Liberals are proposing carbon taxes and tax hikes to <em>get elected</em>? Of course not. Trust me - you'll feel a lot better having the door slammed in your face when you say something you believe in, than having the door slammed in your face because of a scandal involving an idiot Cabinet Minister you've never met.<br /><br /><br /><strong>7. Embrace the Novelty: </strong>It will take a few years, but before long you'll find yourself at a party in Ontario and someone will exclaim "<em>boy, a PC supporter in Alberta - that must be tough!</em>". I know you'll be tempted to argue or educate them - "<em>actually, we won 8 seats last election and were in power back in 2011</em>". But don't do it! Take it from me, no one cares that the Liberals hold seats in Calgary or that the party routinely gets 25% of the vote.<br /><br />Instead, play up the stereotype - talk about the 3 person riding association meetings, or the time the 90 year old grandma in rural Alberta chased you off her porch hurling f-bombs your way. It's what your audience wants to hear. Call yourself an "endangered species" and claim you joined the PCs as "an act of youthful rebellion" - you'll be the hit of every party.<br /><br />Heck, even a benign blog title like "Calgary PC" will be eye catching and mysterious before long.calgarygrithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14496123174056722783noreply@blogger.com13tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6901354.post-75826698295847336982012-04-19T09:00:00.004-04:002012-04-19T09:21:23.288-04:00Alberta Votes Day 25: "Fuck it, I'm voting PC"When you know the PCs are going to take 70% of the vote in your riding and 80% of the seats in the province, there's not a lot of strategy involved in your vote. You vote your conscience, knowing there is no way your check mark could possibly make a difference. It's no surprise the majority of Albertans didn't bother voting in 2008.<br />
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This time, the Alberta election is all about strategic voting, which is why longtime Liberals like Warren Kinsella have done the previously unthinkable and <a href="http://warrenkinsella.com/2012/04/a-question-from-the-media/">saddled up with the PCs</a>.<br />
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The strongest pitch to date for a strategic PC vote comes from this ad, produced by Calgary filmmaker <a href="http://www.edmontonjournal.com/opinion/columnists/6481107/story.html">Aviva Zimmerman</a>:<br />
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<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="252" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/rPR84Gn1d9I" width="448"></iframe><br />
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It's a slick ad and should be effective with its target demo (young, urban progressives), though that target demo tends to live in ridings the Wildrose has little chance of winning. It also says a lot about the state of the PC dynasty that their most compelling pitch to voters at this point is (and I quote): "<span style="font-style: italic;">I would rather have my face eaten off by rodents - but I'm voting for them</span>".<br />
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The Alberta Liberals stand to lose the most from strategic voting, and they've <a href="http://www.calgaryherald.com/opinion/Corbella+Grits+finally+have+good+leader+timing/6468633/story.html">aggressively countered</a> with a pitch of their own:<br />
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<blockquote style="font-family: arial;">
'When Sherman contemplated a Wildrose government being questioned by a PC opposition in the legislature, he was worthy of a standup routine, whether you agree with his position or not.<br />
<br />
“Why would you have a very right-wing government and a corrupt right-wing party that caused all the problems as your opposition?” he asked rhetorically.<br />
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“What are they going to question? What are they going to complain about? ‘Excuse me, you didn’t privatize enough, or you privatized too much, or too fast. Or excuse me ... you didn’t neglect those seniors enough.’ It would be an absolute joke.”'</blockquote>
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They've also launched a hugely entertaining "Wildrose or Tory" <a href="http://www.toryorwildrose.ca/">online quiz</a>, to make the point that the "more progressive" option isn't really any more progressive.<br />
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The impact of this strategic voting campaign remains to be seen. I remember an analysis of the 2004 federal election showed that Harper benefited from the "Stop Harper" movement because NDP supporters voted "strategically" in many NDP-CPC swing seats. The same thing could very well happen in Calgary or Edmonton this time out. But regardless of the result, this marks the first time in a long time its been worth Albertans' time to give serious thought to their vote.calgarygrithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14496123174056722783noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6901354.post-10813017432925612212012-04-18T10:00:00.005-04:002012-04-18T10:16:28.372-04:00Alberta Votes Day 24: Sleeping Arrangements at Minority Motel<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUncF-oqx0xADcSbYAr93iC_kSgz6-kbKvouQ5P3FpahpHWR0NKIgugw_jwhvXYW_JDUVJ2PBOwsKjl-qDeJnrea8PJ2RJX1C6VnKjzBneeyOC1untQtBnsVLV-Z1u3bJYFJDxUA/s1600/Wildrose+boot+camp.JPG"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; width: 400px; height: 196px; text-align: center; display: block; cursor: pointer;" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5732447402470837346" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUncF-oqx0xADcSbYAr93iC_kSgz6-kbKvouQ5P3FpahpHWR0NKIgugw_jwhvXYW_JDUVJ2PBOwsKjl-qDeJnrea8PJ2RJX1C6VnKjzBneeyOC1untQtBnsVLV-Z1u3bJYFJDxUA/s400/Wildrose+boot+camp.JPG" /></a><em><center>Above: Preview of post-election Cabinet meetings?</center></em><center></center><br /><br />Despite a <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/story/2012/04/16/albertavotes2012-leader-debate-fallout-roi-poll.html?cmp=rss">lackluster debate performance</a> by Alison Redford, <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/alberta-election/edmonton-calgary-up-in-the-air-as-another-poll-shows-tightening-alberta-race/article2404718/">a pair of post-debate polls</a> show the Wildrose margin down to 7 points. With <a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/04/alberta-votes-day-23-born-this-way.html">daily</a> <a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2012/04/there-goes-another-1000-good-behaviour.html">controversies</a> dogging Danielle Smith, there's no guarantee that lead will hold and, even if it does, it's impossible to accurately project what the next legislature will look like.<br /><br />The first problem with any seat projection is that all polls split Alberta into three regions for reporting purposes - Calgary, Edmonton, and rural Alberta. While that's the most logical cut, just as downtown Calgary and suburban Calgary are two very different entities, lumping Red Deer and Peace River into the "rural Alberta" umbrella masks regional trends.<br /><br />Moreover, the regional sample sizes in these polls are small, carrying large margins of error. It's not at all surprising to see the <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/despite-pc-surge-wildrose-maintains-lead-as-alberta-election-day-nears/article2403600/">PCs up by 4</a> in Calgary Monday morning, but<a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/alberta-election/edmonton-calgary-up-in-the-air-as-another-poll-shows-tightening-alberta-race/article2404718/"> trailing by 14</a> come dinner time. Yes, it's possible a Wildrose chinook rolled across the city, but it's more likely we're dealing with the effects of small sample sizes and varying methodologies.<br /><br />But even if we're lucky enough to get completely accurate polls, extrapolating out seat totals is a fool's errand. Seat projections in the last few federal elections have generally worked well, because we've had a good baseline to work with. If the Liberal vote is down 5 points in Ontario from 2008 to 2011, it's not hard to do the math for each riding. However, the Wildrose Alliance was little more than a protest party last time Albertans went to the polls, so it's counter productive to calculate their 2012 support using their 2008 vote. When a party rises from nothingness, it's extremely difficult to predict vote patterns - there's a reason seat projections showed the NDP winning anywhere from 20 to 70 seats in Quebec last spring, and a reason <a href="http://threehundredeight.blogspot.ca/2012/04/gap-narrows-but-wildrose-still-in.html">308.com</a> projects a Wildrose seat range of between 27 and 74 seats.<br /><br />Toss in wild 4-way splits in Edmonton, incumbency effects, riding redistricting, and a map skewed to favour rural Alberta, and we're dealing with Alberta's most unpredictable election in a long time.<br /><br />So the bottom line is we don't know what the next legislature will look like, <strong>but if the vote stays close, Alberta's first ever minority government is a distinct posibility</strong>. So what happens then?<br /><br />The first thing to consider is the likelihood of defections. A floor crossing epidemic has spread across Alberta in recent years, so I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a handful of Progressive Conservatives take a step to the right after the election. Few PC MLAs supported Redford when she ran for leader, and she hasn't exactly endeared herself to them over the past month. Many in her caucus share the same Wildrose positions Redford spent the campaign ridiculing, and the prospect of an NDP-supported Redford budget might be too much for them to bear.<br /><br />Hell, if Smith is only a handful of seats shy of a majority, expect an exodus. PC MLAs have never sat on the opposition benches, and many chose their party colours merely because they saw the PCs as the only avenue to power. It's not like Danielle Smith has her hands full of "Cabinet material" candidates to choose from, so she wouldn't hesitate for a second to offer Cabinet posts to entice one or two Tories across the floor.<br /><br />But let's assume for a moment that Redford holds the PC ship together - maybe the PCs even find themselves ahead of the Wildrosers. The focus then shifts to the Liberals and NDP, who will likely win 4 to 10 seats between them. The Saskatchewan Liberals found themselves in a similar situation in 1996, and their decision to take Cabinet posts in an NDP government eventually led to the demise of that party. So it was somewhat curious when Liberal leader Raj Sherman began the negotiation process during an <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/alberta-liberal-leader-banking-on-minority---and-cabinet-post/article2404847/">online debate</a> yesterday, by asking Smith and Redford if they'd name him Minister of Health.<br /><br />While I don't think the good doctor will get his wish, nearly everyone I've talked to assumes the PCs would cut some kind of deal with what's left of the left - even if they win fewer seats than the Wildrosers. But I'm not convinced.<br /><br />The Liberals and NDP have spent <em>decades</em> waiting for the PC empire to crumble and if Smith offers them a deal - say some democratic reform measures and a hold on the more objectionable parts of Wildrose platform - I wouldn't be shocked to see an unholly alliance. After all, seeing the Wildrose Party in power would surely plunge the PCs into infighting and a leadership race.<br /><br />For the Wildrose Party, the benefits of a deal with the left are obvious - the aforementioned PC chaos, and a chance to govern "non-scarily" thanks to the calming influence of the Liberals and NDP (think Stephen Harper from 2006 to 2011). Keep in mind, Wildrose campaign manager Tom Flanagan has gone on record as stating he saw nothing wrong with <a href="http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/03/28/ex-adviser-says-harper-had-coalition-plan-in-2004/">Harper's threat to cut a deal with the separatists and socialists in 2004</a>, after winning fewer seats than Paul Martin. Smith sounded like she was laying the groundwork for this type of arrangement during the leaders debate, when she went out of her way to compliment Raj Sherman and talked about how she's been able to work with the NDP in the legislature.<br /><br />As strange as it may sound, life may soon be imitating the scenes from a satirical 2010 press gallery video, featuring Brian Mason barking orders ("<em>left, left, left</em>") at Danielle Smith and a Wildrose caucus decked out in orange NDP shirts. Hell, the video even features a cameo from then-independent MLA Raj Sherman.<br /><br /><iframe height="252" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/zKIZilenZxw" frameborder="0" width="448" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>calgarygrithttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14496123174056722783noreply@blogger.com11