Comments on CalgaryGrit: Byelection Monday

http://www.hammertimegp.blogspot.com

2008-03-22T14:53:00.000-04:00

http://www.hammertimegp.blogspot.com

Good point about Elizabeth May. She's had a coupl...

2008-03-17T18:44:00.000-04:00

Good point about Elizabeth May. She's had a couple of shots at seats that were at least fertile ground for the greens.

Was this another behind the scenes deals with Dion.

Speaking of which, I don't see her saying Dion would make a great Prime Minister anymore.

B'Gosh, B'Gorah and B'Lections

2008-03-17T17:44:00.000-04:00

B'Gosh, B'Gorah and B'Lections

If a pretty representative sample of Canadian Vote...

2008-03-17T15:52:00.000-04:00

If a pretty representative sample of Canadian Voters have bought into the Conservatives "not a leader" message
on Dion, then this is their chance to give him the boot right off the national stage.

The Libs have to push a 3 out of 4 as the greatest victory since 68.

I think CLH has a good point, though I would argue...

2008-03-17T14:35:00.000-04:00

I think CLH has a good point, though I would argue that the real message they are testing out is the everyone else is soft on crime / only the conservatives can protect you angle. In Quadra in Vancouver, and from what I saw of debate coverage in Toronto-Centre, I felt sort of hit over my head myself with that message.

I predict low voter turnout, three Liberal wins by...

2008-03-17T14:19:00.000-04:00

I predict low voter turnout, three Liberal wins by lower margins, Conservatives take the Sask seat, increased NDP vote in Toronto Centre and increased Green vote in Quadra.
Can we agree Elizabeth May has forfeited the right to be in the next leader's debate by sitting out seven by-elections?

Well, byelections being byelections, I'm just goin...

2008-03-17T10:20:00.000-04:00

Well, byelections being byelections, I'm just going to say I expect Quadra and Willowdale to be a lot closer than they were in the general election. But, yeah, when you have a 30 point lead, it's hard to lose which is why I'd expect 3/4 for the Liberals.

I don't think the point is for the CPC to be in th...

2008-03-17T08:16:00.000-04:00

I don't think the point is for the CPC to be in the play, the point is for them to test out their various strategies, one of which is apparently sophisticated ethnic targetting. I assume they replaced the candidate for this reason. Warner might seem better if you look at the riding as a whole, but he might be wrong for the specific CPC targetted groups. If their strategy is seen to work in TC, they can then use it with more confidence in ridings where they will be in the play.

I'd point out that even without the Warner Fiasco,...

2008-03-17T05:04:00.000-04:00

I'd point out that even without the Warner Fiasco, the Conservatives were not in play in Toronto-Centre. They have finished third behind the NDP for the last 3 Federal elections, and that wasn't going to change today regardless of who was running.

“Liberals might be in trouble in both Quadra and W...

2008-03-17T02:26:00.000-04:00

“Liberals might be in trouble in both Quadra and Willowdale.”

The LPC candidates in those ridings are kinda lightweight. Doesn’t mean that they will lose. After all, these are safe seats.

I would be looking at the Churchill and Rae ridings. A loss in Churchill would be another blow to dion’s credibility and political strategy. Bob Rae could claim that his past record is behind him, if he does well.

It’s now in the hands of the voters and non-voters. Dion’s supporters can’t blame Iggy this time if something goes wrong. Iggy and dion made a point of touring Quarda at the same time.

I'm disappointed, Dan. You could have used some so...

2008-03-17T02:10:00.000-04:00

I'm disappointed, Dan. You could have used some sort of "four leaf clover" for the "four by-elections" theme.

Toronto must be making you soft, you need to come back west and get your edge back. ;)

Four-Leaf Circus imo

2008-03-17T01:07:00.000-04:00

Four-Leaf Circus imo

Liberals picked a weak candidate in DMCR. Expect a...

2008-03-17T00:58:00.000-04:00

Liberals picked a weak candidate in DMCR. Expect a Conservative win.

CG: I'm disappointed. Perhaps:"Tories are a Sham,...

2008-03-16T23:52:00.000-04:00

CG: I'm disappointed. Perhaps:

"Tories are a Sham, Grits hope to Rock..."

Or how about:

"Byelection Blarney"

Going to be interesting... turn-out predictions?

What rumblings are you hearing in Vancouver Quadra...

2008-03-16T23:28:00.000-04:00

What rumblings are you hearing in Vancouver Quadra?

I don't know if I'd call the Vancouver Sun article today very relevant when they quote the opposing candidates to determine the point of the story . . . as well as the headline. Did they expect the NDP and Conservative candidates to say the Liberals would win the day before the election?

But if you've heard more than that, please let us know what you're hearing.

Bad karma for the Quadra candidate.

2008-03-16T23:06:00.000-04:00

Bad karma for the Quadra candidate.

I read that the seat in Willowdale is very safe. S...

2008-03-16T22:52:00.000-04:00

I read that the seat in Willowdale is very safe. So safe that losing would be like the weatherman calling for a snowstorm in mid July and it happening

I really would not expect anything in Willowdale; ...

2008-03-16T22:36:00.000-04:00

I really would not expect anything in Willowdale; it's super-safe, and Martha is an extremely strong candidate.

Concerning the Saskatchewan riding, I'm actually surprised it's as close as it is (in that it's generally thought it will be close), given the popularity of the government in Western Canada and the fact that it went Liberal by a razor margin last time (plus, that riding seems to like changing parties every election for the last two decades).